Daily COVID-19 data update XXIX

Graphs day 29, pandemic day 35, day 106 since the first cases were diagnosed. All five of the usual graphs are back today, with Russia and Japan displayed. I thought for sure we would be over 2 million cases worldwide, but today’s dataset records only 1.95 million. More than 125,000 people have died. Global cases and deaths continue to grow at a linear rate, which is a hell of a lot better than growing at an exponential rate.

The graph of cases per million people, updated through April 15th and including Russia and Japan:

After being passed by Belgium, Italy has moved back ahead by a hair. The number of cases in Russia is clearly increasing. It’s hard to see the increase in Japan on this scale. It’s a bit easier to see when comparing all the countries from equal start dates – as in our usual graph, comparing the number of days since the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000:

It’s easy to see the increase in Japan after about day 45. Japan had this epidemic under control, but they released their precautions too early. Don’t be Japan. Don’t release the precautions too early.

The same countries by days since the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000:

And again, the U.S. tracks closely with Italy.

The graph of deaths per million by day – I keep hoping the rate of deaths in Belgium will slow down, but it keeps on going.

And in fact, when we look at the death rate in terms of days elapsed since the case rate reached 1 per 1,000,000…

The death rate in Belgium has passed the rate in Spain at the equivalent time in the epidemic. Meanwhile the increased case rate in Russia and Japan has not yet shown up in increased death rate – but sadly it will.

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs; here’s the latest version with all the graphs including Russia and Japan.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

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