Graphs day 105, pandemic day 112, day 182 since the first cases were diagnosed.
I had a full update today, on both global and U.S. state data – complete with a shiny new data source.
Then I accidentally deleted the Excel worksheet with all my formulas.
brb drinking
Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end or I lose my mind, which is looking much more likely after today.
Graphs day 104, pandemic day 111, day 181 since the first cases were diagnosed. Today we’re hitting all. themilestones aat once.
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 10,112,754
Total deaths: 501,562
The daily up-and-down of daily cases has taken us down, but the overall trend of cases keeps going up up up:
Last Wednesday, I made some updated predictions of when we would reach some new tragic milestones. I had predicted 500,000 deaths would arrive tomorrow; in fact, the milestone arrived today. I predicted that we would hit 600,000 deaths on Wednesday, July 22nd; we’ll see if we hit that milestone early as well.
I’m keeping an eye on the countries, mostly in Asia and western Europe, where COVID-19 seems to be under control. They’re all steady so far. If cases creep up anywhere, like they did in Serbia a couple weeks ago, I’ll let you know.
Countries where cases seem to be moving in the right direction:
Maybe they’re not all headed in the right direction, unfortunately. Cases in Peru today are way up, but that might be just a daily variation or a catch up of a few days’ worth of cases. There’s not enough to say that Peru is getting worse again, but I’ll keep a close eye on them. And meanwhile, the steady decrease in cases in Qatar has slowed down to flat, but fortunately the situation in Qatar is not getting worse either.
Countries where the epidemic is getting worse:
Note that, depressingly, the case rate in the U.S. is significantly higher than it was at its previous peak (93 cases reported per million people on April 8th compared to 119 cases reported per million people today).
But the biggest number today is this: 10,000,000. In less than six months, the total number of cases in the world has gone from zero to ten million. Think about that. It takes nine months to have a single human baby, increasing the human population by one. In far less time, the virus has gone from infecting zero (that we knew of at the time) to more than ten million (at least), and each of those people have millions of copies of the virus inside them. Because the virus reproduces so much faster than we do, and so the virus will always have the advantage in this game.
We need all our players on the field.
Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make the country graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” If it would help you to start from my Excel templates, please use them! The county data and analysis is in my national-level data template (now version 4.2).
Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end or I lose my mind.
Graphs day 103, pandemic day 110, day 180 since the first cases were diagnosed.
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 9,952,507
Total deaths: 498,519
Big jump in cases over the weekend, pulling the smoothed average up as well:
We have almost certainly hit the 10 million cumulative cases mark worldwide, and we’ll confirm that in my graphs tomorrow. And we’ll almost certainly hit 500,000 worldwide cases tomorrow as well, ahead of my prediction.
Countries headed in the right direction, featuring NOT SWEDEN:
Clearly I was overly optimistic in moving Sweden into the “headed in the right direction category.” Sweden is back to the “getting worse” chart today. Panama is gone for the moment (their cases per day have held steady the past few days), and Serbia has changed colors to purple:
The good news is that cases in Chile are down to 233 cases reported per million people, almost back down at the level where their curve will return to the main chart.
De bad news is Sweden.
Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make the country graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.”
If it would help you to start from my Excel templates, please use them! The county data and analysis is in my national-level data template (now version 4.2).
Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end or I lose my mind.
Graphs day 101, pandemic day 108, day 178 since the first cases were diagnosed. I had a Cunning Plan to show you updated figures from every U.S. state, sorted into logical groupings and displayed in glorious multicolor detail. But then Corona Data Scraper didn’t put out an update today.
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 9,581,803
Total deaths: 489,182
Instead, here’s an entirely different way of visualizing COVID-19 data, one I hope you will find both simple and striking.
The table below is a memorial to the Americans who died on six consecutive Sundays, from Sunday, March 1st to Sunday, April 5th. Each death is marked with a simple black flag emoji. (I could have used crosses, especially since we’re talking about death on Sunday, but I wanted to keep it both secular and vexillogical.)
One row of the table, one Sunday in America.
One death, one black flag.
| Date (Deaths) | Black Flags |
| March 1 (1) | 🏴 |
| March 8 (3) | 🏴 🏴 🏴 |
| March 15 (10) | 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 |
| March 22 (80) | 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 |
| March 29 (484) | 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 |
| April 5 (1,344) | 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴.🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 🏴 |
Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end or I am driven insane.
Graphs day 100. Sigh.
Pandemic day 107, day 177 since the first cases were diagnosed. Update of the global and national data today, plus an interesting update on Chile. Tomorrow, a deeper look at U.S. state data.
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 9,400,295
Total deaths: 482,468
Daily reported cases worldwide, showing that after all this time, we are still seeing more and more cases every day:
…and cumulative deaths worldwide (because the dead stay dead), increasing slowly than before but still well on pace to reach half a million next Tuesday:
The global case fatality rate now stands at 5.1 percent.
Here are are three of our four usual categories – in the counties where COVID-19 was quickly contained, it is still contained.
I’ve added back some countries we had followed in the past – Germany (pink), Ireland (orange), and Slovenia (brown), all firmly Under Control.
I was worried about what looked like an uptick in cases in France and Germany, but the numbers are back down to their previous levels today.
Cases in Sweden, Saudi Arabia, and Peru are at almost exactly the same level as one another today.
Most of these countries are still getting worse, but take a look at Chile:
What’s going on there? Remember that we’re not looking at cases directly; we’re looking at cases that have been smoothed by 10-day average smoothing. This means that each day’s value is replaced with the average value for the day, plus the five days before and the five days after.
On June 18th, Chile caught up on its case counting and reported 36,179 cases in one day. That explains the jump-and-fall in the cases per capita shown above.
Those 36,179 cases were all real cases, but it’s not that that many people suddenly fell sick on June 18th. The pattern is even clearer when you look at the observed cases for Chile and the smoothed cases on the same graph:
And that maybe gives us some hope for Chile. For now, despite the fall in daily reported cases, Chile still counts as “getting worse.” But if the curve begins to trend down, then in a few days we might be able to say that Chile is moving in the right direction.
Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make the country graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You can get the U.S. state data from the Corona Data Scraper site; choose today’s data as CSV.
If it would help you to start from my Excel templates, please use them! The county data and analysis is in my national-level data template (now version 4.2). Data and analysis for U.S. states is in my new state-level template (version 1.0).
Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.
Graphs day 99, pandemic day 106, day 176 since the first cases were diagnosed. Today, rather than do an update of all the usual graphs, I’ll focus on two results: one is an update of an earlier prediction, and the other is a brand new result. But first:
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 9,229,049
Total deaths: 477,269
Back on May 17th, I made some predictions about the future course of the epidemic; six weeks later, that has become the past course as they epidemic continues to rage. So how did it go?
In terms of total worldwide cases, reality arrived ahead of schedule. I predicted we would hit five million global cases on May 23rd, and six million global cases on June 1st. Instead, we hit five million cases one day early, on May 22nd. We hit five days early, on May 31st.
In terms of deaths, though, I am pleased to say that my predictions were too high. I predicted we would hit 400,000 deaths on June 4th and 500,000 deaths on June 17th. In reality, the 400,000 death mark arrived on June 8th, and as of June 24th we still have not reached 500,000 deaths.
If you are planning to judge me on my predictions, then: how accurate were your predictions of the future course of the COVID-19 pandemic? If you didn’t make any before, now’s the time. Now’s the time for me too – here are my predictions of future deaths based on the last month of data.
The graph below shows the cumulative number of deaths from COVID-19 from the beginning of the epidemic to today. On May 26th, public health authorities in Spain issues a revised death toll, removing some people who had died of other causes. Deaths by day since then are shown by yellow squares; the black line shows the best fit to those numbers.
Since that May 26th update, deaths have been growing steadily at the rate of about 4,500 people per day. The good news is that the death rate is not increasing; the bad news is that it is not decreasing either. That steady rate lets me make predictions of when we will reach the next two death-related milestones.
Five hundred thousand deaths: Tuesday, June 30th
Six hundred thousand deaths: Wednesday, July 22nd
If you think you can do better, make your own predictions in the comments!
The United States continues to lead the world in overall cases of COVID-19 (although Qatar and Chile far surpass us in cases per million people). The U.S. is such a big, diverse, politically decentralized country that it makes sense to look at cases not just in the country as a whole, but by state and county.
Remember that the state data is one day behind the national data, and comes from a different source. So there will be some differences, but the differences are small and explainable.
On Monday, I showed some map of the number of reported cases by state, per million people. Here is the map of cases, updated through yesterday:
This is total cases reported, including both people who have died of COVID-19 and people who have recovered. But how have these numbers changed over the course of the epidemic?
Presenting here, for the first time, a graph of COVID-19 case rates (per million people) in individual U.S. states. The date axis (horizontal) starts on March 10th, two days before overall cases in the U.S. reached the magic number of 1 case per 1 million people. The vertical axis is “Qatar scale,” from zero to 700 cases per million people.
I picked several interesting states to show you in this first view: some northeastern states that had high rates early (New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Maryland), some southern states that have seen their rates increase recently (Florida, Texas, Arizona), and of course, the granddaddy of them all, California.
The graph tells an amazing story: some states have gotten their COVID-19 epidemics under control, some are simply looking on as the pandemic spins out of control today.
There is so much more I could say about this graph. I’m looking forward to exploring it with you in more detail in the coming days.
Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make the country graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You can get the U.S. state data from the Corona Data Scraper site; choose today’s data as CSV.
If it would help you to start from my Excel templates, please use them! The county data and analysis is in my national-level data template (now version 4.2). Data and analysis for U.S. states is in my new state-level template (version 1.0).
Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.
