So far I’ve brought you several forecasts of the 2020 U.S. Presidential election (the most recent), and a forecast for the nail-bitingly-close Senate election, which I predict will messily resolve into the thinnest possible margin for a Democratic majority. Now the House elections, which I predict will result in a slight Democratic gain.

This was originally going to be a single post, then a 3-part series. So, welcome to my 4-part series of 2020 House election predictions!

Today, previews of close races – those where I predict the vote will finish within 5 percentage points – in the alphabetical first half of states, from Alaska to Minnesota, then skipping over the “New” states directly to North Carolina because apparently I cannot into alphabet.

The National Map

Below is my forecast map for what the entire House will look like when the 117th U.S. Congress opens on January 3, 2021 (for comparison, here’s what the map looks like now). See the guide below for what each part of the figure means, and definitely click on it for a version you can actually read.

How to read the map (skip if you know it already)

As is traditional yet completely arbitrary, Republican representatives are shown by red hexagons and Democratic representatives are shown by blue hexagons. The text labels show the names of the incoming representative; plain text means that I predict the incumbent will be re-elected, bold means that I predict a new representative will be elected from the same party, and bold all-caps means that I predict a party switch. A larger font size and a single asterisk(*) mean the election is likely to be close, within about 5%. An even larger font size and double asterisk(**) mean the election is likely to be very close, maybe within 2%.

Preview of close races (New Jersey to Texas)

In my Senate prediction, I offered at least a passing comment on each of the 35 races. With 435 House races, I’m obviously not going to do that, but I have looked at them all to get a sense of which will be most exciting.

Here they are, starting with the close races marked with a single asterisk (*) in the map above.

House races likely to vote within 5 percent (52%-47% or closer)

New Jersey 7

This district covers several of the rural and exurban communities of northwestern New Jersey. With a median household income of $104,000 per year, it is the richest congressional district on the close races list, and fifth-richest in the country. In 2018, Democratic challenger Tom Mailnowski upset five-term Congressman Leonard Lance. He is running for re-election against State Senator Tom Kean. There have been no polls in this district since March 11th, when dinosaurs roamed the Earth. So who knows. But incumbent + slight Democratic lean to the district + probably a good year for the Democratic Party overall =

Prediction: Malinowski re-elected

New Mexico 2

New Mexico, like the Mongols, is the exception. It’s a western state, mostly rural, with only one metro that feels like it’s bigger than it really is – the Albuquerque metro area has a smaller population than those of Fresno, California or Greenville, South Carolina. And yet, because of its significant Mexican-American and Native American populations, it tends to vote Democratic in national elections, enough that it has moved completely out of swing state territory.

New Mexico’s second district encompasses the southern half of the state, plus a gerrymandered tentacle (gerrycle?) reaching up to crack Kirkland Air Force base in half.

In 2018, longtime Republican representative Steve Pearce (not that one) stepped down to run unsuccessfully for Governor or New Mexico, and Democratic candidate Xochtil (pronounced SHOCK-til) Torres Small won an extremely close election against Republican Yvette Herrell – so close that it appeared Herrell had won on election night, but Torres Small pulled ahead once all the votes were counted. The same two face off again this time, with Torres Small as the incumbent. Polling is once again extremely tight, with Torres Small leading by 3 in the average.

Prediction: Torres Small re-elected.

New York 11

New York has 27 House districts, 10 of which are entirely within New York City. One of those is the 11th, which includes all of Staten Island and some neighborhoods at the southern tip of Brooklyn; it is the only district in New York City that voted majority for Trump in 2016 (at 53%). It is currently represented for the Democratic Party by Max Rose. He is running for re-election against state assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis. Rose is ahead by 5 points in aggregate voting and is likely to win.

Prediction: Rose re-elected.

New York 22

This district runs north-south through the bridge of New York’s nose, between the Adirondacks and Lake Ontario. It includes the cities of Ithaca, Binghamton, Newburgh, and Poughkeepsie. In 2018, Anthony Brindisi won the seat back for the Democratic Party by defeating then-incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney. The same two face off again this time, with Brindisi 4 points ahead in aggregate polling.

Prediction: Brindisi re-elected.

Ohio 1

Ohio-1 is another gerrymanderiffic district looking like a pair of sexy nunchucks to crack apart Cincinnati. It has been represented by Republican Steve Chabot in 12 of the last 13 Congresses, missing only on term after losing in the blue wave of 2008 but getting voted back in in 2010. His opponent is Cincinnati public health worker Kate Schroeder. The race is tightening, but Chabot is up by 2.5 percentage points with two weeks left.

Prediction: Chabot re-elected.

South Carolina 1

This is another gerrymanderific district, centered on the city of Charleston, South Carolina. It includes the southern half of South Carolina’s coastline, plus one of those beefy arms for good measure. The district typically votes Republican in the Presidential election, by double-digit margins. But in 2018, the district elected its first Democratic representative by less than 4,000 votes. That representative is Joe Cunningham, and he is running for re-election for the first time against state representative Nancy Mace. Normally it would be an uphill battle for Cunningham in such a solidly Republican district, but Mace’s popularity is fading along with Trump’s, and Cunningham is now up by 3 in aggregate polling.

Prediction: Cunningham re-elected

Texas 7

In the 2020 House elections, the eyes of the world are on Texas. The first of five close races we’ll look at is Texas’s 7th congressional district, which covers the western suburbs of Houston. Democratic incumbent Lizzie Fletcher is running for re-election against real estate agent and former Army helicopter pilot Wesley Hunt. Fletcher led by 4 when I made the map, but her lead has extended to 5 since.

Prediction: Fletcher re-elected

Texas 21

I don’t even know how to describe the shape of this gerrymandered district. Evil Massachusetts? A snuffleupagus with a goatee smoking a pipe? Regardless, it exists for only one reason: to crack the cities of Austin and San Antonio by shoving as many of their voters as possible into a weird district, while also including enough rural area to the west so that rural voters will maintain a slight edge in numbers.

But I digress.

In 2018, 16-term Republican incumbent Lamar Smith retired, and Republican Chip Roy won the seat. His opponent this time is a hero of the Texas Democratic Party: Wendy Davis, whose 13-hour filibuster succeeded in stopping passage of a restrictive abortion bill (although it passed in the next legislative session). Roy is ahead by just under 4 points in aggregate polling.

Prediction: Roy re-elected

Texas 22

Here’s another weirdly gerrymandered district, covering the southern suburbs of Houston. Painfully asymmetric breasts?

Six-term incumbent Republican Pete Olson is retiring, opening the seat to a new occupant. The new occupant will be either Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls or foreign service officer and national security expert Sri Preston Kulkarini. The candidates’ signature issue issues are law enforcement and health care. Guess which is which!

The race is tightening, but aggregate polling has Nehls 3 points ahead.

Prediction: Nehls wins, holding the seat for the Republican Party

Texas 23

This district covers a vast rural area of western Texas, from the outskirts of San Antonio to the outskirts of El Paso. It takes 8 hours to drive from one end of the district to the other. The district is majority Mexican-American, but the inclusion of the highly conservative San Antonio suburbs, plus the cities of Midland and Odessa, makes for a hotly contested district. It is currently represented by Will Hurd, of the most moderate and bipartisan-willing Republicans in Congress. Presumably sick of the bullshit, Hurd surprised many by announcing he would not seek re-election, issuing what may be the most politely shade-throwing retirement statement of all time:

I’m leaving the House of Representatives to help our country in a different way… It was never my intention to stay in Congress forever, but I will stay involved in politics to grow a Republican Party that looks like America.

Soon-to-be-former Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX-23)

I like this guy.

His replacement will be either his 2018 opponent, Air Force veteran and national security consultant Gina Ortiz Jones, or conservative populist Navy veteran Tony Gonzales. Ortiz Jones is ahead by 5 points in polling.

Prediction: Ortiz Jones is elected, switching the seat to the Democratic Party. And also becoming the first openly LGBT person elected to Congress from a southern state.

Party Switches

If you’re keeping score at home, we’ve had three party switches after the review of close races, with a net gain of +1 for the Republicans:

MI-3: Justin Amash (L) -> Peter Meijer (R)
MN-7: Collin Peterson (D) -> Michelle Fishbach (R)
TX-23: Will Hurd (R) -> Gina Ortiz Jones (D)

But if you remember my overall prediction from the map, it was +5 Democratic. So where will the Democratic Party get those extra six seats from?

Tune in Friday for the epic conclusion, the House races that I think could be decided by 2 points or fewer!

Continuing today my forecast for the 2020 U.S. elections, now just 15 days away!

Previously, I gave my Presidential election forecast (the most recent), a Senate forecast, and an overall House forecast. The House forecast was originally going to be a single post, then a 3-part series. So hey, welcome to my 4-part series of 2020 House election predictions!

Today: the first half of previews of close races.

The National Map

Below is my forecast map for what the entire House will look like w2hen the 117th U.S. Congress opens on January 3, 2021 (for comparison, here’s what the map looks like now). See the guide below for what each part of the figure means, and definitely click on it for a version you can actually read.

How to read the map (skip if you know it already)

As is traditional yet completely arbitrary, Republican representatives are shown by red hexagons and Democratic representatives are shown by blue hexagons. The text labels show the names of the incoming representative; plain text means that I predict the incumbent will be re-elected, bold means that I predict a new representative will be elected from the same party, and bold all-caps means that I predict a party switch. A larger font size and a single asterisk(*) mean the election is likely to be close, within about 5%. An even larger font size and double asterisk(**) mean the election is likely to be very close, maybe within 2%.

Preview of close races (Alaska to North Carolina)

In my Senate prediction, I offered at least a passing comment on each of the 35 races. With 435 House races, I’m obviously not going to do that here, but I have looked at them all to get a sense of which will be most exciting.

Here they are, starting with the close races (forecast to be within 5 percentage points, meaning a 52.5%-47.5% vote). These races are marked with a single asterisk (*) in the map above.

I’m running through previews alphabetically by state name, and today I preview states from Alaska through Minnesota. I am then skipping over all the “New” states directly to North Carolina, because apparently I cannot into alphabet.

Alaska at-large

This district covers the entire state of Alaska, and it’s the second-largest electoral district by land area in the world (only the Nunavut district for the Canadian House of Commons is bigger).

Republican Don Young has represented the district since 1973, and considering his long service it’s shocking that he’s in any race at all with challenger Alyse Galvin, an Anchorage-based education consultant and activist.

The race was within 5% when I made the map, but Young has pulled more than 6 points ahead in polling, so he is virtually certain to return for his 25th term in Congress.

Prediction: Young re-elected.

Arkansas-2

This district covers central Arkansas, including the state capital of Little Rock (aerial photo below). Like most districts containing urban centers, it is far more friendly to Democratic candidates than the rest of the state. Except it’s Arkansas, so it’s still not at all friendly to Democratic candidates.

Republican third-term incumbent French Hill currently leads Joyce Elliot (who represents Little Rock in the State Senate) by 5 percentage points. The race is getting closer, but time is getting short.

Prediction: Hill re-elected.

Arizona-6

This district covers the northeastern suburbs of Phoenix, including the cities of Scottsdale and Paradise Valley.

Four-term Republican David Schweikert faces emergency room doctor and health care advocate Hiral Tiperneni. Schweikert leads by 3 points in a tightening race.

Prediction: Schweikert re-elected.

California-39

This district covers the foothills east of Los Angeles -parts of Los Angeles, Orange, and San Bernardino counties – including Yorba Linda, the hometown of Richard Nixon.

In 2018, a longtime Republican Congressman retired and Gil Cisneros sniped the seat for the Democratic party, narrowly winning the seat in a recount against state assemblywoman Young Kim. The same two are running again, and Cisneros currently leads by 5 points.

Prediction: Cisneros re-elected.

California-48

This district covers the coast of wealthy, traditionally Republican Orange County, from Huntington Beach to Laguna Beach. In 2018, Harley Rouda became the first Democratic representative in the district’s history. Rouda is running for re-election against Orange County Councilwoman and self-proclaimed “Tax Fighter,” the impressively-named Michelle Steel. Rouda is ahead by a bit under 3 points. I’m less sure about this one – but when the incumbent is ahead with less than a month left, go with the incumbent.

Prediction: Rouda re-elected.

Florida-26

This district covers the Tip of the Wang, from Homestead in southern Miami-Dade County to all of the Florida Keys. I’m amazed that in the ridiculously close President/Senate state of “It All Comes Down To” Florida, this is the only remotely close House race.

First-term Democratic incumbent Debbie Murcasel-Powell goes up against Miami-Dade County mayor Carlos Giménez (note that “mayor” here is equivalent to County Commissioner in other counties. Not to be confused with the mayor of the city of Miami, who is just as Cuban-American, young, and good-looking as you would expect).

Like Alaska, this is a race that has separated even since I made my map, and Murcasel-Powell is virtually certain to win re-election.

Prediction: Murcasel-Powell re-elected.

Georgia-6

This district includes the northern suburbs of Atlanta – and as always, as go the suburbs, so go the nation. In a 2017 special election, the district famously gave Democratic pundits hope when Jon Ossoff lost to Karen Handel by about 9,000 votes – thus demonstrating just how desperate for hope Democratic pundits were in 2017.

But in 2018, Democratic prospects were better, and Lucy McBath captured Handel’s seat by only 3,264 votes. It’s McBath vs. Handel again this year, and McBath is just over 3 percent ahead in current polling.

Prediction: McBath re-elected.

Illinois-13

This is a gerrymaderific district that mostly includes rural west-central Illinois, but has weird squid tentacles that include small parts of the state capital of Springfield and the college towns of Champaign and Bloomington because reasons.

The district hasn’t voted Democratic since ’92…….. 1892, that is. In 2018, Republican Rodney Davis won re-election against challenger Betsy Dirksen Londrigan by a ridiculously thin margin of 2,058 votes.

Davis and Dirksen Londrigan play it again this time, with Davis ahead by about 3 percent in the polls.

Prediction: Davis re-elected.

Michigan-3

This district includes the city of Grand Rapids and the surrounding area of central Michigan. Justin Amash was elected as a Republican in 2010, but ran afoul of President Trump and switched parties – first to Independent and then to Libertarian, becoming the first third-party representative in Congress since 1950. th

Understandably, Amash has had enough and is not running for re-election. The seat will either go back to the Republicans via Peter Meijer, heir to Michigan’s Meijer supermarket chain – or else will flip Democratic with immigration lawyer and education activist Hillary Scholten. Polling is absolutely all over the place, but the average has Meijer ahead by about 3 points.

Prediction: Meijer wins, capturing the seat for the Republican Party.

Minnesota-1

This is a rural district that stretches across the whole southern border, and includes midsize cities like Mankato, Rochester, and Winona.

The district has traditionally leaned very, very slightly Democratic, but it currently represented by massively conservative, massively controversial Republican Jim Hagedorn. In 2018, Hagedorn defeated Democratic candidate Dan Feehan by just 1,311 votes. Feehan, an Iraq War veteran and former middle school math teacher, is running again. Some polls have Feehan ahead, but on average, Hagedorn leads by 4 points.

Prediction: Hagedorn re-elected.

Minnesota-7

This is another rural district, eh? It is the largest district by area Minnesota, covering the whole western side of the state except the far south, with the largest city being Moorhead. It’s the most conservative part of Minnesota, with a long history of Representatives with wonderfully Scandinavian names like Haldor Boen, Ole Juulson Kvale, and Odin Langen.

The district has been represented since 1990 by Collin Peterson, one of the founders of the Blue Dog Democratic Coalition. But thanks to the USA’s increasing partisanship and a strong candidate – Lieutenant Governor Michelle Fishbach – the Republicans seem poised to capture the seat from the 15-term incumbent. When I made the map, Fishbach was 4.5 points ahead when I made the map, but her lead has increased to six points.

Prediction: Fishbach captures the seat for the Republicans.

Montana at-large

This district represents the entire state of Montana, and it’s actually the largest district by population in the country. Incumbent Greg Gianforte is stepping down to run for Governor of Montana.

The Republican candidate is state auditor Matt Rosendale; the Democratic candidate is former state representative Kathleen Williams. Rosendale has led the entire way, but Williams has pulled within 5 points – not very close with so little time remaining.

Prediction: Rosendale wins, retaining the seat for the Republican Party.

North Carolina-8

This district covers rural south-central North Carolina, including the midsize cities of Concord, Albemarle, and Pinehurst.

The district is currently represented by Republican Richard Hudson. He is running or a fifth term against Patricia Timmons-Goodson, an Associate Justice of the state Supreme Court. Polls are tightening, with Hudson currently holding a 3-point lead.

Prediction: Hudson wins re-election.

Party switches

If you’re keeping score at home (can’t tell the players apart without a program!), that’s two seats that I predict will switch parties:

• Michigan-3: From Libertarian to Republican (although Justin Amash was originally elected as a Republican), captured by Peter Meijer
• Minnesota-1: From Democratic to Republican, captured by Michelle Fishbach

That’s two seats over the Republicans, but remember that my overall prediction was five seats turning Democratic. That means that there are some switches that way still to come in my House forecast previews.

Coming Wednesday: Close races from New Jersey to Texas.

Coming Friday: An additional ten races that I predict will be very close – within two percent at 51%-49% or closer. Which means that they will likely require a recount, bringing us more drama for weeks after the election. Getcha popcorn.

So far I’ve brought you several forecasts of the 2020 U.S. Presidential election (here’s the most recent, from just two days ago), and a forecast for the nail-bitingly-close Senate election, which I predict will messily resolve into the thinnest possible margin for a Democratic majority.

Today, it’s time for the last leg of the tripod: my forecast for the results of the 2020 elections for the U.S. House of Representatives.

Last week, I showed you a map of what the U.S. House looks like today, for the 116th U.S. Congress. After lots of research, primarily on the always-inspirational fivethirtyeight.com, I present to you my prediction for what the House will look like next January, at the start of the 117th U.S. Congress. Guide below, click on the image for a larger version that you can actually read.

As is traditional yet completely arbitrary, Republican representatives are shown by red hexagons and Democratic representatives are shown by blue hexagons. The text labels show the names of incoming representatives; plain text means that I predict the incumbent will be re-elected, bold means that I predict a new representative will be elected from the same party, and bold all-caps means that I predict a party switch. A larger font size and a single asterisk(*) mean the election is likely to be close, within about 5%. An even larger font size and double asterisk(**) mean the election is likely to be very close, maybe within 2%.

Jumping to the bottom-line prediction, I predict the final count of seats by party will be:

Democratic 237 Republican 198

I wouldn’t be surprised if this prediction were off by ten or so in either direction, but it’s not going to be so far off that it results in a missed prediction of a Republican majority. That means the House election is unlikely to be exciting on a national level; the House will be declared a Democratic majority sometime around 11:30 PM Eastern Time, when the blue wave begins to roll in from the California shore.

But there will be a number of fascinating races that will, earlier in the night, give us a sense of how wide the margin might be. In my Senate prediction, I offered at least a passing comment on each of the 35 races. With 435 House races, I’m obviously not going to do that, but I have looked at them all to get a sense of which will be most exciting.

At this point, I was going to describe each close and very close race marked on the map above, giving you a snapshot of the district, the context of the 2020 race, and a prediction of who I think will win… but two hours of writing and 503 words later, I’m through six of the 35 races I wanted to cover. So this has just become a multi-part post.

Enjoy the map, and stay tuned Monday for part 2.

19 days to go until the 2020 U.S. Federal Election!

My Official House Predictions are coming tomorrow, but today it’s time for a quick Presidential prediction update. Here’s the prediction map, usual style (and I should really add labels with state names). Click for a larger view.

Four changes since last time, all in Biden’s direction:

• The most significant change by far is that, with polling there showing Biden consistently ahead, I have moved North Carolina from “Tilt Trump” to “Tilt Biden.” The fifteen electoral votes there update the final tally to give Biden 335 electoral votes and Trump 203.
• Biden is now consistently ahead by 12-15 percentage points in Virginia, so I have moved Virginia from Likely Biden to Safe Biden. What happened to Virginia as a swing state? It’s not this time.
• Likewise Colorado
• Polls have tightened enough that I have downgraded Texas – freakin’ Texas – from Likely Trump to Leans Trump. I still think Trump will win in Texas, but I’m not as confident in that prediction as I was a week ago

As the election gets closer, my predictions get more confident. Why? There are many reasons for this, but the most obvious is that more than 14 million people have already voted, either by absentee ballot or by in-person early voting. Even if today Joe Biden, Donald Trump, and Jo Jorgensen all rip off their skinsuits to reveal the lizard people underneath, that wouldn’t change the votes already cast.

Want to try your hand at predicting the outcome? You can use my map as a starting point for yours by going to the interactive predicting tool at 270towin.com. Share your predictions in the comments!

The Presidential election is drawing all the attention this year, but the elections for the U.S. Senate are equally important.

In what seems like it might be a good year for Democratic candidates, Joe Biden seems to be comfortably ahead in Presidential polling, and the Democratic Party seems poised to maintain their majority in the House. The biggest unknown is in the Senate.

If the Democratic Party can capture a majority in the Senate along with the White House, then they will hold both houses of the legislative branch and the executive branch – and with the Senate’s role in confirming federal judges, a chance to shape the future of the judiciary branch. If, on the other hand, Republicans retain their majority, we could be looking at another two years of one branch of our government blocking absolutely everything the other branches try to do.

So which will it be?

Welcome to my first-ever Senate election forecast. I’ll present the results on a modified version of the same Senate map I showed last week, see below. Senate terms are six years but elections are every two years, so once every two years one-third of the Senate comes up for re-election. Normally that means that there are 33 seats up for a vote, but this year there are also special elections to fill out the terms of the late John McCain (R-AZ) and the retiring Johnny Isakson (R-GA), bringing the total to 35.

In the map below, the pink, light blue, and light purple hexagons represent the 65 Senators that are NOT up for election this year (Republican, Democratic, and Independent respectively). The others, with darker shades of red and blue, ARE up for election (red for Republican, blue for Democratic). The color of each hexagon is the color of the party that I predict will win that seat. Labels are as follows.

Boring regular text (e.g. Sullivan) shows incumbent Senators that are likely to be re-elected with ease. Bold text (e.g. Hagerty) shows brand-new incoming Senators, replacing exiting Senators of the same party. All-caps bold text (e.g. CUNNINGHAM) shows new Senators of a different party; these are the races to watch because they could potentially shift the balance of power in the Senate. A separate scale shows how close I expect the races to be. Larger font sizes with asterisks (*) mean races that are likely to be close, possibly within 5 percent. Even larger font sizes with double asterisks (**) mean races that are likely to be very close, possibly within 2 percent.

The Forecast

I’ll review each race below, starting with the most boring and moving up to the most stressful, and then I’ll issue an overall prediction of which party will control the Senate.

The Boring Ones

• Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R-AR) will easily win re-election, especially since his main opponent dropped out of the race
• Rhode Island: Jack Reed (D-RI) will easily win re-election
• Wyoming: Cynthia Lummis will easily hold the seat for the Republican Party, replacing retiring Sen. Mike Enzi
• Massachusetts: Ed Markey (D-MA) will easily win re-election
• Nebraska: Ben Sasse (D-NE) will easily win re-election

• Delaware: Chris Coons (D-DE) will easily win re-election

• 

  West Virginia: Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV) will easily win re-election. Which is a shame, because her opponent is Paula Jean Swearingin, and we would get headlines saying, “Swearingin swearing-in set for January 20th”

• South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R-SD) will easily win re-election

• 

  Illinois: Dick Durbin (D-IL) will easily win re-election
• Tennessee: Bill Hagerty will easily retain the seat for the Republican party, replacing Lamar Alexander, who is retiring after a long and distinguished public service career
• Idaho: Jim Risch (R-ID) will easily win re-election
• New Jersey: Cory Booker (D-NJ) will easily win re-election
• Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R-OK) will easily win re-election
• Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D-OR) will easily win re-election
• East Virginia: Mark Warner (D-VA) will easily win re-election
• New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) will easily win re-election

The More Interesting Ones

Here’s where things get interesting.

• Louisiana: is weird because multiple names appear on the ballot, regardless of party. If any candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, that candidate is elected Senator. If no candidate gets a majority, the top two finishers face each other in a runoff election in January. The most likely outcome is that incumbent Bill Cassidy (R-LA) will win re-election.

• Kentucky: Democrats were desperately wishing to unseat Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, but Kentucky is not a wish-granting factory. McConnell will defeat Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath to win re-election.

• 

  New Mexico: Democratic congressman Ben Ray Luján (D-NM-3) will defeat Mark Ronchetti to hold the seat for his party, replacing the retiring Tom Udall.

• Minnesota: It will probably be a closer vote than Democrats would have liked, but incumbent Tina Smith (D-MN) will hold off former representative Jason Lewis to win re-election.

• Mississippi: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) will win re-election against Mike Espy, but the fact that we’re even talking about a Republican incumbent maybe losing in Mississippi is a sign of how good a year this might be for the Democratic party.

• Texas: John Conryn (R-TX) will win re-election against Air Force fighter pilot M.J. Hegar (I’m sensing a theme with Democratic nominees in predominantly Republican states)

• Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R-AK) will win re-election against Dr. Al Gross. Again, it would seem to be a worrying sign that an incumbent Republican in Alaska might lose, but all it takes is 50% and a seat is a seat.

The Stressful Ones

Including all the seats not up for election and all the fairly confident predictions above, the Senate count stands at 43 Republican, 43 Democratic – as well as the 2 Democratic-leaning Independents, Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME), who tend to vote with the Democratic Senators. That leaves 12 seats remaining on which the future of the Senate will be decided. These are the seats that will keep us, and our blood pressure, up on Election Night.

Thus, the best-case scenario for the Republican Party in the Senate would be to hold 55 seats (and thus the Democratic Party would hold 45). Conversely, the best case for the Democratic Party would be 55+2 seats, with the Republican Party holding 43. Neither of those best-case (or worst-case, depending on your perspective) scenarios is especially likely. What is most likely?

Here are my predictions for the most stressful (interesting?) races this time, one by one, followed by a prediction of the overall composition of the Senate in the 117th United States Congress.

• 

  Michigan: Incumbent Gary Peters (D-MI) is likely to hold off his challenger, Army veteran John James, to win re-election. If James wins the seat, it could be a tough night for the Democratic Party. And even though more than 99% of the population of Michigan lives in the Eastern Time Zone, we’ll still have to wait an extra hour for the results. Thanks, UP.
• Georgia (regular election): like Louisiana, Senate elections in Georgia are weird. Multiple candidates appear on the ballot, and if any of them gets a majority of the vote, that candidate wins. If no candidate gets a majority, the top two finishers face in a January runoff. A runoff is less likely in this election than in the Georgia special election (see below), because the two most popular candidates by far are incumbent Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) and one of the rising stars of the Democratic Party, Jon Ossoff. Polls have been back-and-forth, but I give the edge to Perdue winning on the first ballot.
• Kansas: Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts is retiring, and his successor is a choice between two doctors-turned-public-servants, Representative Roger Marshall (R-KS-1) and State Senator Barbara Bollier, who represents the Kansas City suburb of Mission Hills in the Kansas State Senate. Marshall is the likely winner, holding the seat for the Republican Party.
• Colorado: Incumbent Cory Gardner faces former Denver mayor and Colorado governor John Hickenlooper. Hickenlooper is significantly ahead in most polls, and he is my pick to provide the first party switch in this list and win a seat for the Democratic Party. If you’re card-counting, that’s a one-seat swing in their favor.
• South Carolina: It’s a shocker that this one is even on the Stress List, since Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has already served three terms and has become one of the most powerful Republicans in the Senate. Nevertheless, he faces Jaime Harrison, former chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party a respected long-time member of the political community in the state. Donations have come in for Harrison at record-shattering levels, and polls are close, but I predict that the incumbency effect will prevail and Graham will be narrowly re-elected.
• Alabama: This is the best chance Republicans have to poach a seat. Incumbent Doug Jones (D-AL) narrowly won a special election to replace Jeff Sessions in 2018, and the seat has cycled back around to a regular election. Republicans have nominated former college football coach Tommy Tuberville. It’s hard to imagine a candidate more well-suited to become a Senator from Alabama than a football coach, and I predict that it will be enough to overcome incumbency and send Tuberville to Washington. If you’re still card-counting, we’re back to even.
• Montana: Montana has long been the most Democratic-friendly state in the Mountain West, and this seat is a reasonable possibility for a Democratic pickup. Popular incumbent Senator Steve Daines (R-MT) is in a Steve-off with popular former Governor Steve Bullock. Daines is the incumbent but Bullock has better name recognition. I predict Daines will prevail in a close race.

• 

  Georgia Special Election: to fill the remaining term of Senator Johnny Isakson, who retired in December 2019 due to poor health (and I wish him well). Georgia’s governor appointed Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) to temporarily fill the seat pending a special election, which is happening now. Again, Georgia is weird. This one will certainly NOT be decided on Election Day, because the Republican vote will be split between Loeffler and current Representative Doug Collins (R-GA-9). The top vote-getter on Election Day will be Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock, Pastor of the same Baptist church where Martin Luther King Jr. was pastor. But he won’t get 50% of the vote, so the race will go to a runoff on January 5, 2021, where Republican voters will unite behind whichever candidate finishes second on Election Day. That leads to the weird prediction that the seat will be held by a Republican, even though I have no idea which Republican it will be.
• Arizona Special Election: to fill the remaining seat of the late John McCain, who I deeply miss. Arizona’s Governor appointed Martha McSally to fill the seat pending a special election. McSally has been wildly unpopular and faces a major challenge from former Navy aviator and NASA astronaut Mark Kelly. Kelly has been consistently far ahead in the polls, and I predict he will win and poach another seat for the Democratic Party. Amazingly enough, if elected, he will be America’s fifth astronaut senator. If you’re card counting, we’re back up to Democratic +1.
• North Carolina: Incumbent Thom Tillis (R-NC) is running against veteran, businessman, and former representative Cal Cunningham in the rapidly blueifying state of North Carolina. Cunningham has been ahead in the polls but the race was tightening – and then Tillis managed to catch COVID-19 at the worst possible time. Cunningham is ahead in the polling and I predict he will come out the winner. Democratic +2.
• Iowa: First-term incumbent Joni Ernst (R-IA) is in a very close race with Des Moines businesswoman Theresa Greenfield. Polling is incredibly close and I have no idea who will win this one. Iowa will likely be the closest Senate race (if not the most eagerly-anticipated, see below), and there’s a very good chance it could come down to a recount with the Senate majority hanging in the balance, with all the drama that will entail. I’ll go with the incumbent on this one for now. Which leaves us with…
• Maine: Everyone’s favorite indecision factory, Susan Collins (R-ME) is up against Sara Gideon, currently speaker of the Maine State House of Representatives. Gideon has been steadily gaining in the polls, and is now ahead, but is by no means a sure thing. I predict Gideon will win, for another seat swap in favor of the Democratic Party, now +3 on your scoresheets. Which means…

Overall prediction

If all my predictions above hold true, then next January, the Senate will be perfectly split – 50 Republican Senators and 50 Democratic + Democratic-voting Independent Senators. That means that any fully-party-line vote will be perfectly split and the Vice President will cast the deciding vote. Since I’m currently predicting that Vice President to be Kamala Harris, that would mean a de facto Democratic majority. Of course, it the Vice President ends up being Mike Pence, the fly will be on the other wall and it will be a de facto Republican majority.

And of course that assumes that everyone votes perfectly along party lines. Remember that if these predictions come true, Sara Gideon will represent the same independent-minded voters of Maine that Susan Collins now represents – and thus she could be susceptible to the same partisan push-and-pull that Collins now is. Whether you are praising Collins’s independence or wishing she would fall in line with her party, or vice versa, you may be saying the exact inverse next year about Sara Gideon.

And you know what’s even more fun? The other Senator from Maine, Angus King, is an Independent who currently votes with the Democratic Party, but isn’t bound by the party and could conceivably change his mind for the right ideology or the right incentive. It’s happened before. One thing is certain:

Get your Maine puns ready now, because the Maine event is coming on November 3rd.

What’s scarier than U.S. politics?

Not this!

Welcome to the 2020 edition of my annual Best Sexy [Thing That Is Inherently Not Sexy] Halloween Costume Contest!

Every year since 2015, I remind you how ridiculous commercialism is by reviewing women’s Halloween costumes. This year is going to be the weirdest Halloween of our lifetimes, with the global COVID-19 pandemic and a particularly insane U.S. election coming up just three days later – but the show must continue in a timely manner. Here’s how it works.

I have no problem with celebrating Halloween, nor with women celebrating Halloween by wearing sexy costumes. Wear what you like. What I do have a problem with is the fact that our cultural expectations are such that we expect all women’s costumes to be sexy, and thus it is nearly impossible for women to find regular, not-sexy costumes to celebrate Halloween.

The result is that, in addition to perfectly sensible Sexy Cheerleader or Sexy Non-Copyright-Infringing Black Panther costumes, there are plenty of sexy costumes built from ideas that are definitely Not Sexy. And that’s what we celebrate here, every year in the weeks leading up to Halloween.

When you see a sexy costume of something that is inherently not sexy, comment here with a link to it, or send it to me on my Facebook or Twitter. I’ll keep a record of all the submissions and report them all here, a few at a time, in the days leading up to Halloween. On Halloween night, I’ll announce the winner, and the person who suggested the winning entry will win a prize!

To help you get ready for this year’s contest, here are the previous winners!

2015: Sexy Killer Whale

She might look cute, but she’ll eat you alive! Suggested by Jeremy Berg.

2016: Sexy Scrabble

You might think that a board game would be too abstract to make a sexy Halloween costume, but that would be a M-I-S-T-A-K-E for 13 points, plus a 50-point bonus for using all your letters. If you’re smart enough, she might let you play too! Suggested by Kelly Simms.

2017: Sexy Green Poo

This bizarre costume is a reference to a distant memory, Burger King’s Halloween-themed Black Whopper, which apparently turned your black whoppers a bright shade of green. It’s kind of a shitty costume tbh. Suggested by Aimee Shoff.

2018: Sexy Marcel Duchamp Art Gallery Urinal

It’s a urinal, but it’s not just a urinal, it’s actually a tribute to the work of art Fountain by Belgian surrealist Marcel Duchamp. Is it art? Regardless, it’s a golden idea! Suggested by Christina Rawls.

2019: Sexy Mr. Rogers

In honor of the film A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, which premiered in October 2019. Don’t forget to take off the sweater to go to the Magical Land of Make-Believe! Suggested by Elliot Kresmer.

What amazing costumes will we get for the 2020 edition of Best Sexy [Thing That Is Inherently Not Sexy] Halloween Costume Contest? Suggest away!