Graphs day 30, pandemic day 36, day 107 since the first cases were diagnosed. Global cases have now passed two million, so sadly I’ve had to rescale the graph again. More than 135,000 people have died. But the good news is that, for the first time, we are seeing signs of a slowdown in the rate of new cases.

The graph of cases per million people shows that the case rate in Belgium has passed Italy and is rapidly gaining on Spain:

Looking at the plot scaled to equivalent points in the epidemic (measured as the number of days after the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000), it becomes easier to see that case rates are continuing to grow quickly in the US, the UK, and Russia:

The situation in Belgium looks even worse when looking at deaths per million people:

And looking at deaths per day elapsed shows that deaths are still increasing in France even as the rate of cases decreases. That’s to be expected, and the increase in deaths will come to an end soon.

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs; here’s the latest version with all the graphs including Russia and Japan.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.