Author: Jordan Raddick

This is the part of The Show where I put in a plug for my intellectual hero, Nate Silver, and his project FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver came to prominence in the early 2000s as a baseball analyst, at the forefront of knowledge in sabermetrics, the quantitative analysis of baseball. He created a series of statistical models to evaluate professional baseball prospects by comparing their playing statistics to past players at the equivalent points in their careers.

As a result, Silver became well-known among baseball fans, but still virtually unknown among the general public. That changed in late 2007 when he saw an opportunity: baseball had long since embraced performance-based metrics, what passed for prediction in politics was still laughable. A famous study, quoted in Silver’s book, found that predictions issued on a famous TV roundtable show were worse than random – a coin flip was literally a better predictor of outcomes than a panel of “experts.”

Silver jumped at the opportunity to improve political prediction, first publishing anonymously on Daily Kos, then starting his own blog called FiveThirtyEight – named for the number of electoral votes up for grabs in a U.S. Presidential election. He issued regular predictions for the result of the 2008 U.S. Presidential election – and ultimately nailed it, correctly predicting the winner of 49 out of 50 states (missing only North Carolina). In 2012, he did himself one better, correctly predicting the winner of 50 out of 50 states.

Then, of course, 2016 happened. Silver’s model assigned Hillary Clinton a 70% chance of winning the Presidential election… and Donald Trump won. Silver was criticized and even laughed at, even though he had been appropriately cautious all the way through. If the weather forecast says there’s only a 30% chance of rain, and it rains, the prediction wasn’t wrong. That’s just the nature of probability – sometimes, unlikely events really do happen.

FiveThirtyEight.com is continuing to issue its reality-based predictions. Here is their latest prediction for the 2018 House of Representatives election:

Think of all the liquid fresh water on the Earth’s surface – all the lakes, rivers, streams, ponds, etc. More than one-fifth of all that fresh water is in one lake: Lake Baikal in Siberia.

It’s only the seventh-largest lake in the world by surface area, smaller that three of North America’s Great Lakes – but it’s more than a mile deep. It was formed by water filling a deep rift valley where the Eurasian Plate is slowly splitting in two. If you’d like to visit, it’s not as remote as it looks. It’s only a one-hour drive from the city of Irkutsk, which can be reached from most of the world by air with a stop in Moscow. I found a round-trip flight from Dulles to Irkutsk for less than $1,500 on the Russian national airline Aeroflot (whose name sounds somewhat unfortunate in English). Happy virtual travels! http://bit.ly/2qk8F2B
Think of all the liquid fresh water on the Earth’s surface – all the lakes, rivers, streams, ponds, etc. More than one-fifth of all that fresh water is in one lake: Lake Baikal in Siberia.

It’s only the seventh-largest lake in the world by surface area, smaller that three of North America’s Great Lakes – but it’s more than a mile deep. It was formed by water filling a deep rift valley where the Eurasian Plate is slowly splitting in two.

If you’d like to visit, it’s not as remote as it looks. It’s only a one-hour drive from the city of Irkutsk, which can be reached from most of the world by air with a stop in Moscow. I found a round-trip flight from Dulles to Irkutsk for less than $1,200 on the Russian national airline Aeroflot.

Happy virtual travels!

It’s now been more than two weeks since Nike announced that the new face of their long-running “Just Do It” ad campaign would be former 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who became controversial for protesting police brutality and racism, and who is no longer in the league.

Images for the new ad campaign have already started to appear in print and online:

When I wrote about this last Monday, I was reacting to the initial announcement, which I saw in a tweet by ESPN reporter Darren Rovell. When I first saw the tweet, I wondered what exactly he meant by “Nike had been paying Colin Kaepernick all along.” The extremely cynical explanation – that the entire protest was just a Nike ad campaign – has fortunately turned out to be incorrect. “All along” simply means that they continued to honor their endorsement deal with Kaepernick after his playing career ended (and thanks to Mac for pointing this out to me).

And I’m sure you’ve seen some of the dank maymays that have flooded the Internet since the campaign’s announcement:

Yes, I’m sure you’ve seen these images. Which was Nike’s plan all along.

I’ve made a hobby of showing you some of the amazing places around our world, with a focus on the most obscure and unexpected, like the South Dakota – Montana border, and the Russian republic of Kalmykia. But of course all of the world’s most famous sights are there too, letting you play virtual tourist all over the world.

And here is one of the most famous of the famous: the Great Pyramid of Giza:

But even such a famous sight holds surprises. Zoom out a little to see the surprising amount of development around the Great Pyramid, including superhighways and golf courses:

Bullwinkle’s Corner:
An occasional series about poetry

Part 1: When Spring Comes

This is also part 3 of a series of posts about my terra ultima australis, the city of Puerto Montt, Chile

Part 1: A visit to the Deep South
Part 2: The other side of the South

Here’s another post from Bullwinkle’s Corner, an occasional series about poems that speak to me in some way. See the sidebar for the others.

Today’s entry is a song, which of course is a type of poem. And it’s a powerful one, about a real historical event: the Puerto Montt Massacre, in which police fired shots and tear gas into a crowd of protester/squatters, killing nine people. The singer-songwriter is Chilean folk singer Victor Jara (1932-1973), a Chilean folk singer, teacher, and political activist who was murdered in the early days of the U.S.-backed dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet.

Of course, music is meant to be listened to, so here is an audio recording of Jara performing the song live in Valparaiso, Chile. After an introduction and some silence, the song starts at 0:34. The song is in Spanish, but if you don’t speak Spanish, a translation is below.

Two things are helpful to know in interpreting the lyrics. First, Puerto Montt i is like Seattle in that it is a temperate city on the Pacific coast with a cold polar current offshore – so it rains a lot. The Chilean expression equivalent to “Is the Pope Catholic?” is “¿Lluvia en Puerto Montt?” (Is it raining in Puerto Montt?).

Second, who is the “port monkey” in the chorus? It’s Interior Secretary Edmundo Pérez Zujovic, who gave the order to evict the settlers. (He probably didn’t order the police to shoot, but you can imagine his attitude towards the settlers might have contributed to the violence.)

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqjfOxKFnB0&w=560&h=315]

Such a raw evocation of a tragedy – so angry yet so sensitive.