Day four of me doing this, and COVID-19 has reached 175 separate countries. There are cases from Afghanistan (24 reported cases) to Zimbabwe (just reported its first case today).

The United States (blue dotted line) has vey nearly caught up with Iran and Spain in terms of total number of cases reported.

The bad news for the USA is that the number of new cases continues to grow at a faster rate than in Italy. While it is likely that part of that fast growth is due to better testing becoming more widely available, that is EVEN WORSE NEWS. That would only mean that the disease has spread even more widely than this graph suggests.

The other even worse news for the USA is shown here:

We are just beginning to see the exponential growth phase in the number of deaths, on a time delay from the exponential growth phase of the cases. Death toll in the USA so far: 260 people.

For those of you who say “lol the flu kills 30,000 people a year, this is not enough deaths for me to care” – I have a question for you. How many people need to die for you to take this pandemic seriously? How many? Just say a number.

And then when that many people have died, I’ll come back to you and you can start taking this seriously.

And then it will be even more too late to stop the dying than it is already.

FOLLOW THE CDC’S RECOMMENDATIONS!

Who will make the Sweet 16 in our imaginations?

Find out half the answer today at @fixthemadness!

Here is the bracket as it stands now:

Here is today’s schedule:

Noon ET: (3) Baylor v (11) Florida (West regional, Albany)
1 PM ET: (4) Villanova v (5) LSU (South regional, Tampa)
3 PM ET: (2) Creighton v (7) Houston (Midwest regional, St. Louis)
4 PM ET: (2) Michigan State v (7) Utah State (South regional, Spokane)

7 PM ET: (3) West Virginia v (11) St. Louis (East regional, Albany)
8 PM ET: (7) East Tennessee State v (15) Winthrop (South regional, Tampa)
9 PM ET: (4) Oregon v (5) Wisconsin (Midwest regional, St. Louis)
10 PM ET: (1) Gonzaga v (8) UCLA (West regional, Spokane)

Let the madness continue!

Remember how I said yesterday that the trend in the number COVID-19 cases in the U.S. was following the same path as Italy a few weeks ago?

Hahahahahaha psych, it looks like it’s spreading FASTER than in Italy.

Every day, the World Health Organization (WHO) publishes a daily update of the number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide, and the number of deaths.

Every day, I make graph of the data. We’ll be able to see, in real time, as the disease spreads and kills. Quickly.

Here is the graph of cases per day for selected countries. The United States is the blue dotted line. As you can see, we have passed France and South Korea, and we are rapidly approaching Spain and Iran.

and here is the graph of the number of deaths per day:

The inset graph is no longer necessary, because deaths in Italy have now surpassed deaths in China.

Here is a link to my Excel template for making that figure, if you would like to play with the data yourself. And please do – I’d love to see what you come up with!

Update tomorrow, and every day until WHO declares the pandemic over.

Here’s the bracket of my simulated NCAA men’s basketball tournament after the first day of first-round games, along with today’s schedule. As always, all games reported in real time at my Twitter feed, @fixthemadness.

Schedule for Friday, March 19

Noon ET: (3) Florida State vs. (14) Hofstra (Midwest Regional from Greensboro, North Carolina)
12:30 PM ET: (6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Rutgers (South Regional from Cleveland, Ohio)
1:20 PM ET: (1) Duke vs. (16) Portland State (South Regional from Omaha, Nebraska)
1:50 PM ET: (2) San Diego State vs. (15) UC Irvine (West Regional from Sacramento, California)
2:30 PM ET: (4) Maryland vs. (13) Bradley (East, Greensboro)
3:00 PM ET: (8) Illinois vs. (9) Richmond (East, Cleveland)
3:50 PM ET: (8) Michigan vs. (9) Auburn (Midwest, Omaha)
4:20 PM ET: (5) Ohio State vs. (12) Louisiana Tech (Midwest, Sacramento)
6:45 PM ET: (6) Kentucky vs. (11) Colorado (Midwest, Greensboro)
7:00 PM ET: (3) BYU vs. (14) Siena (South, Cleveland)
7:15 PM ET: (8) Marquette vs. (9) Virginia (South, Omaha)
7:15 PM ET: (7) St. Mary’s (California) vs. (10) Penn State (West, Sacramento)
9:15 PM ET: (5) Seton Hall vs. (12) USC (East, Greensboro)
9:30 PM ET: (1) Dayton vs. (16) Robert Morris (East, Cleveland)
9:45 PM ET: (1) Kansas vs. (16) Boston University (Midwest, Omaha)
9:55 PM ET: (4) Arizona vs. (13) Belmont (Midwest, Sacramento)

Is this finally your team’s year? Find out at my Twitter feed @fixthemadness!

Every day, the World Health Organization (WHO) publishes a daily update of the number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide, and the number of deaths.

Every day, I make graph of the data. We’ll be able to see, in real time, as the disease spreads and kills. Quickly.

Here is the number of cases by country (excluding China), each day from February 17 to today, March 19. The inset graph shows all cases in 2020 and includes China.

New in today’s graph: I removed Australia and Germany, and added Belgium at the request of my Belgian friends. I changed the style of the previously-indistinguishable blue lines. South Korea is the solid light blue line, France is the dashed line, and the United States is the dotted line. Also new today, a graph of deaths due to Coronavirus, with the same countries represented by the same colors and patterns of lines. Depressingly, enough people have died in Italy that we no longer need the inset.

See how on the case graph, the United States is following the same curve as Italy, but three weeks later? And see how the deaths graph follows the same trend as the cases graph?

A lot of people are going to die over the next few weeks. I hope I am wrong.

This is terrifying. Stay safe, everybody.

Here is a link to my Excel template for making that figure, if you would like to play with the data yourself. And please do – I’d love to see what you come up with!

Update tomorrow, and every day until WHO declares the pandemic over.