Predictions For the 2020 Democratic Primaries (Part 1 of 3)

Photo of Joey Ramone
Not actually Jeremy

Guest Post!
One of the joys of being alive is having smart, curious friends to talk with – or to write guest posts for your blog. I’d love to see more of these, especially from friends with perspectives and opinions different from my own – email me your ideas!

Today it’s awesome friend Jeremy Berg with his thoughts on the first two Democratic Presidential Debates, and the 2020 U.S. Presidential election in general. As always, Jeremy’s thoughts are both laugh-out-loud funny and deeply insightful. Enjoy!

This is part 1 of Jeremy’s three-part series. Part 2 will come next week, and Part 3 the week after that. The pink-shaded paragraphs in italic are related tangential extra thoughts.

crystall ball
This crystal ball is named “Chuck Todd.” It makes inaccurate predictions.

Hey everyone. Jordan has invited me to share my thoughts on and predictions about the Democratic primaries. I’m going to touch on several hot button issues, but I don’t want to discuss the issues themselves — only how they might play in the campaign. Which is not to say you won’t hear opinions…

Let’s get three things out of the way to start:

  1. There will be many calls to unite behind one candidate ASAP and not sink the Dems through infighting. Phrases like “circular firing squad,” “purity tests,” “divide and conquer,” and “don’t let perfect be the enemy of good” will get much currency.
              This will not happen.
  2. There will be calls to not refight the 2016 election.
              This will not happen.
  3. There will be calls to not play identity politics.
              This will not happen.

A massive primary field became fait accompli the instant Clinton lost the election.

Yes, Russian interference, voter suppression, 3 million more popular votes, and the electoral college is bullshit. But. By the current measures of an American presidential election, she lost.

There are 23 candidates for the Democratic nomination for the exact same reason that there were 17 candidates for the Republican nomination in 2016: the current incumbent is despised to a degree that is not only historic but previously undreamt of, and no one in the party has been anointed.

Jeb Bush raised a shitload of money and belonged to a dynasty, but he was a political non-entity whose biggest moment on the national stage had been the Terry Schiavo debacle, and who’d been out of office for almost a decade when he ran. The fact that he wasn’t considered the presumptive front-runner right away should’ve been enough to get him to cut his losses and quit on day three. Scott Walker was the Kochs’ pick, but he didn’t really exist outside of Wisconsin, even after the potentially star-making achievement of beating back a recall effort.


On the Democratic side of things, whether or not you think the DNC pulled shenanigans for her, Hillary Clinton was clearly the anointed one. The primary was supposed to be a formality; Bernie Sanders was unmistakably an unwelcome guest at the party (I am aware that Martin O’Malley also ran, but a wet piece of cardboard would’ve had the same impact. On a personal note, I was living in Baltimore when O’Malley was elected mayor, and seeing the dynamic fireball that played Irish bar band gigs in a sleeveless t-shirt, was the inspiration for Carchetti in The Wire, and who a friend once sat next to at Mick’s as he wept into his beer over the state of his beloved city somehow reduced to a piece of extra-bland tofu on the national stage was profoundly depressing).

A herd of wildebeest
An actual photo of the Democratic Presidential candidates taking the stage for the first debate

That means the field is wide open in a way that few if any candidates will live to see again.

Not only does every candidate face an uphill climb against a party favorite but the incumbent is so hated that anyone, no matter how far down the ladder or possessed of radical ideas, gets considered as a viable alternative. Whatever virtues everyone running may possess, they’re still politicians and they’re not about to let this chance pass them by.

With the field so crowded, voters are going to be very picky. The candidates know this, and will stress their virtues and others’ faults. Everyone’s done things someone won’t like, and that means those things will be brought up.

THRILL as the primaries threaten to saw this donkey in half!

So yes, we are going to hear all about Hickenlooper’s fracking, Buttigieg’s gentrification, Harris’s record as a prosecutor (or the fact that she was a prosecutor at all), Warren’s DNA test, Biden’s everything, and G-d knows what else. It’s true that all this tumult will potentially damage the candidate in the general, both in terms of the dirt that gets dug up and the voters it turns off, but it’s still going to happen.

Everyone agrees that it’s vital to get rid of Trump, but each side thinks the other is guaranteed to fail. As part of the argument, progressives will yell about how Bernie would’ve beaten Trump and we can’t make that mistake again, we need offers of real change, while the centrists will yell that we need a middle of the road candidate who will appeal to everyone in the general and not turn people off and frighten them with radical ideas.

…and radical skin tones, sexualities, and genders.


The idea that enough Trump voters (not all by any means, rampant racism and misogyny definitely figure) would have gone for a radical leftist instead of a radical rightist has been floated in various places. Matt Taibi’s book Insane Clown President makes a good case for this, and there was a recent New York Times article where some Trump voters were saying they liked Warren for much the same reasons they’d liked him.

The word “electability” will surface in these discussions, a word that has already been cast as both the only thing that matters for 2020 and a canard used to preserve white male power.

Gender aside, we had that “electable” candidate in 2016 and she lost, so I’m not sure why anyone thinks it’s going to work now, but expect to hear it just the same.

The cat so cute, it domesticated 15,000 humans

UPDATE: Mayor Killer passed away on May 21, 2020 at the age of 14. His loyal subjects have created a memorial fund with Baltimore Area Rescue & Care Add a comment to say it’s for Killer.

Meet the neighborhood of Hampden in Baltimore, Maryland. Population 15,000. A former community for immigrants working at the nearby sailcloth factories. Today, it is a hip center for urban living that has stayed true to its vibrant working-class roots.

[googlemaps https://www.google.com/maps/embed?pb=!1m18!1m12!1m3!1d12344.43267615915!2d-76.6450282634184!3d39.33113472209553!2m3!1f0!2f0!3f0!3m2!1i1024!2i768!4f13.1!3m3!1m2!1s0x89c804d5f7905ff3%3A0x5cc1e5ec25566796!2sHampden%2C+Baltimore%2C+MD+21211!5e0!3m2!1sen!2sus!4v1555696387294!5m2!1sen!2sus&w=600&h=450]

Now meet “Killer,” the unofficial mayor the neighborhood:

Killer (an orange cat), the unofficial mayor of Hampden, relaxes on the steps leading up to a rowhouse
The Mayor holds an audience with citizens

Killer spends nights inside with a specific human, but spends his days wandering the streets, getting food and water from whichever humans set it out, and generally not caring what you think.

I don’t live in Hampden, but I live nearby in the city of Baltimore. I’ve met Killer, and he is every bit as cute as his Instagram account suggests:

https://www.instagram.com/killercatbaltimore

The Gift of the Ice Bear

A woman combs her long black hair in front of a mirror

You’ve probably heard the story: it’s Christmas. A young husband and wife are very poor, and very much in love. His dearest treasure is a gold pocket watch his father gave him; hers is her beautiful long hair.

Unknown to him, she sells her hair to a wigmaker to buy a chain to hold his pocket watch. Unknown to her, he sells his watch to buy her a set of jeweled combs for her hair.

When they exchange gifts, they realize how much in love they really are. The power of this story comes from its bittersweet irony, with just a hint of tragedy. Love truly is the greatest gift, but you can’t comb your hair with love, and love can’t tell the time.

The source is “The Gift of the Magi,” one of the most famous short stories in American literature. It was written in 1905 by American author O. Henry (the pen name of William Sydney Porter). Henry wrote hundreds of short stories, but this one was by far his most famous.

Photo of Kim Clijsters
My lovely spouse

My lovely spouse and I just had an experience that reminded us of this classic story, but without the hint of tragedy.

We have recently become fans of the Cartoon Network series We Bare Bears, a slice-of-life sitcom about three brothers who live together, and who happen to be bears. Grizz is a grizzly bear who is well-meaning but a bit dense and self-involved. Pan-pan is a panda who is girl-crazy and addicted to his smartphone (yes, I know pandas aren’t really bears, and I love how that is your first objection to this concept). But the star of the show is Ice Bear. Ice Bear is a martial arts expert who speaks only in short, direct sentences in a low gravelly voice – and consistently speaks of Ice Bear in the third person.

Here are some of his best moments from the show so far:

And so it came to pass that during one of my frequent Nights of Insomnia, I had just finished watching a few episodes, followed by the NBA TV rebroadcast of my hometown Orlando Magic’s exciting 149-113 win over the Atlanta Hawks. I mention that detail to explain what I did next: I logged in to my Amazon.com account to look for a Nikola Vučević jersey. I found only a few, all far above my price range – but made another important discovery.

My lovely spouse and I share an Amazon account. We don’t normally share online accounts, but sharing one with Amazon makes life simpler because we can share the free two-day shipping to our address. And so when I didn’t add the Nikola Vučević jersey to my shopping cart, I discovered something was already in the cart: a beautiful Ice Bear Believes in You T-shirt, size men’s large.

We are fortunately not even close to poor, much less as tragically poor as the young couple depicted in “The Gift of the Magi,” but with her finishing up a career-change master’s degree, we don’t always have immediate funds for purchases, no matter how awesome.

And so I figured she was waiting until her next paycheck to buy the shirt. I also figured she was buying it as a gift for our lovely nephew, a fellow We Bare Bears fan. And so I thought it would be an excellent time for a gift – not only the gift for our nephew but one in a more appropriate size for the spouse herself.

But of course she was not buying it for our nephew. And thus arrived in the mail a few days later:

My wife and I wearing matching "Ice Bear Believes in You" t-shirts

And so, far from Christmas 1905, I’ll adapt the words of the story’s lyrical closing to celebrate our love:

O all who give and receive gifts, such as they are wisest. Everywhere they are wisest. They are the Ice Bear.

adapted from “The Gift of the Magi” by O. Henry

What a Black Hole Looks Like

Click the Play button on the video above to watch this morning’s press conference as it happened. The press conference begins at the 33-minute mark of the YouTube stream.

Note: this isn’t something I’m directly involved in, I just think it’s REALLY REALLY COOL

10:15 AM UPDATE: The Press Conference is now over. Click the link above to watch the archived recording. I’m watching it now and I’ll summarize here.

10:04 AM UPDATE: The livestream is over, and there are so many fascinating results to unpack! Keep watching this space as I add more explanations and further resources to explore.

9:48 AM UPDATE: I’m learning about this at the same time you are. As I learn more, I’ll keep updating this post. This is so exciting!

Aloha `oe: Sheck Exley

Sheck Exley wrote the book on cave diving. Literally.

Photo of Sheck Exley in SCUBA gearSheck Exley (1949-1994) doing what he loved

If the title of his book Basic Cave Diving: A Blueprint for Survival sounds dramatic, that’s because cave diving is dramatic. Imagine all the fun and danger of SCUBA diving, combined with all the fun and danger of cave exploration, except turned up to 11.

Irby Sheck Exley, Jr. (yes, that was his real name, on his birth certificate) was born in Jacksonville, Florida on April 1, 1949, son of a Volkswagen dealer. His younger brother drowned at age 17; perhaps that is what sparked his desire to make cave diving safer for others, but I don’t want to read too much into other people’s motivations. The important thing is that he did care deeply about making cave diving safe for others. 

The one thing you must understand about cave diving is that it is completely insane. SCUBA diving is dangerous in itself – carrying your own air into a place where you would normally die is an obvious danger, but even if you do everything right you could still die of nitrogen narcosis.

Cave diving adds a new set of dangers. Sunlight can pass through hundreds of feet of open water, but not through rock, so it’s DARK in there, bring your own light. Some passageways are no bigger than you are, so you can go in only to get stuck on the way out. Swimming can stir up mud and silt, reducing visibility to near zero. And with rock above, around, and below, it’s easy to lose sight of where you are and where you are going. There are hundreds of ways to die, and if science has taught us one thing, it’s that nature doesn’t care whether you live or die.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SsXX_5bvHrw
The Grass Mud Horse just learned what cave diving is

Even with all these dangers, thousands of people enjoy cave diving. I’m not one of them, and I have no interest in becoming one, but I can definitely see the appeal. I have a great admiration for people who push themselves to the absolute limit of human ability, even in the most unexpected ways. Especially in the most unexpected ways.

And for people who love cave diving, there is no better place in the world than Sheck Exley’s northern Florida. There are only a few places in the world with both the right rock type and the heavy rains required to create karst topography, home of the most elaborate cave systems – Slovenia, southern Thailand, Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula – but northern Florida is unique even among these places because of its high water table. There are no above-ground cave systems like Postojna or Tham Luang there; all of Florida’s cave systems are underwater, with entrances at springs and sinkholes.

Even though I’ve never been cave diving – and the thought of it terrifies me – I have some experience with cave divers. Some of my favorite childhood memories are of camping at Florida’s Ginnie Springs,  one of the most famous cave diving destinations in Florida, and thus in the whole world. That means I almost certainly saw Sheck Exley before his death in 1994, although I didn’t know it at the time.

[googlemaps https://www.google.com/maps/embed?pb=!1m18!1m12!1m3!1d1522.6639556274731!2d-82.7010931218036!3d29.835875477335396!2m3!1f0!2f0!3f0!3m2!1i1024!2i768!4f13.1!3m3!1m2!1s0x88e8ce44cc5b59a3%3A0xce7dbc98f988825f!2sGinnie+Springs+Outdoors%2C+LLC!5e1!3m2!1sen!2sus!4v1543545422817&w=400&h=300]Ginnie Springs, Florida

Exley took a job as a math teacher at Suwanee High School in Live Oak, Florida, so he could live close to his beloved springs. His list of SCUBA diving records, in both open water and cave diving, stretches farther than the deepest cave. He was the first person in the world to log 1,000 cave dives – all before he turned 24. He has had the deepest penetration of numerous caves in Florida and elsewhere. He was the first person in the world to dive to a depth of 800 feet (240 meters), a grueling dive that required more than 13 hours of gradual post-dive decompression. 

But without a doubt, his greatest contribution to the sport of cave diving was his obsession with doing it safely. His book is now required reading for many cave diving certifications – meaning that aspiring divers can’t legally enter their first cave until they know how to do it like Exley did. He also helped popularize the use of the “Octopus,” a secondary diving regulator so that your buddy can breathe from your tank if theirs runs out.

Unfortunately, even for a man who literally wrote the book on safe cave diving, cave diving is still a dangerous sport, and ultimately it took Sheck Exley. On August 6, 1994, Exley died in Mexico’s Zacatón Sinkhole while trying to become the first person to descend to 1,000 feet (300 meters) in freshwater. His cause of death is uncertain, but likely due to the effects of breathing a mix of helium gas under high pressure – effects which are poorly-understood even 24 years later, simply because so few people have ever tried.

[googlemaps https://www.google.com/maps/embed?pb=!1m18!1m12!1m3!1d3232.8605471215!2d-98.16801444982994!3d22.99306628489425!2m3!1f0!2f0!3f0!3m2!1i1024!2i768!4f13.1!3m3!1m2!1s0x8678486fe28fe8b3%3A0xdc54a2d97bd74d35!2sCenotes+El+zacaton!5e1!3m2!1sen!2sus!4v1543545633944&w=400&h=300]Zacatón Cenote, Mexico

But there is one detail of his death that is both fitting and heartbreaking. When he didn’t come up at the scheduled time, his friends in the surface support crew knew he was gone – but they never expected what they were about to see when they pulled up the air hose. With his literal dying breath, Exley had wrapped himself firmly in the air hose, saving his friends from a risky mission to recover his body. But that’s who he was: right up until the end, finding ways to keep everyone safe.

Sheck Exley may be dead, but there are literally hundreds of people alive today because of him.

Aloha `oe, Sheck.