Month: April 2020

Graphs day 22, pandemic day 28, day 99 since the first cases were diagnosed. More than 1.3 million people worldwide have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and more than 80,000 have died. Our usual graphs are below. The rate of new cases and deaths continues to increase roughly linearly.

The bad news is that I have had to rescale the countries graph again – Spain now has an diagnosed case rate higher than 3,000 cases per million. The good news is that in Switzerland and Italy, it appears that the rate of new cases is finally starting to slow down.

Once again – everything we are doing is working. Keep doing it!

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 21, pandemic day 27, day 98 since the first cases were diagnosed. More than 1.3 million people worldwide have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and nearly 75,000 have died. Our usual graphs are below. The rate of new cases and deaths continues to increase roughly linearly. A linear increase results in way fewer sick and dead people than an exponential increase.

What would be even better than linearly increasing? No longer increasing at all. And we’ll get there – if we keep doing everything we are doing. Keep your distance, wash your hands, and follow the advice of medical and public health professionals.

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 20, pandemic day 26, day 97 since the first cases were diagnosed. More than 1.2 million people worldwide have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and more than 68,000 have died. The good news is that in all three of today’s graphs, it definitely looks like the exponential phase of growth is over pretty much everywhere. But the rate of cases and deaths is still growing, and this pandemic will still get worse before it gets better.

The most important thing I can say about these graphs is that they show that the curve is starting to flatten, and the curve is starting to flatten BECAUSE we are taking the right steps! Don’t stop now – keep isolating! We are starting to turn it around, but there is still a lot more work to do.

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 19, pandemic day 25, day 96 since the first cases were diagnosed. COVID-19 has now reached even the distant Falkland Islands. The worldwide graph just keeps increasing, and now more than 64,000 people have died.

Comparing rates in different countries

The good news comes from the graph of case rates in different countries. It wasn’t clear before, but today we can definitely see that the case rate is decreasing in France, Belgium, and even Spain.

And we can maybe see the same downturn happening in the United Kingdom and the United States. Maybe. If it’s there, it’s a little clearer in the graph with equivalent starting points:

Cases, deaths, and country populations come from the datasets of the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data site (download the CSV file at “all four metrics”), and I hope you find my Excel template useful for creating your own graphs.

Hopefully more good news tomorrow, and hopefully every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Grapheration day 18, pandemic day 24, day 95 since Wuhan. COVID-19 has now reached even the distant Falkland Islands. Nearly 1.1 million people have been diagnosed, and more than 56,000 have died. The graph of worldwide cases and deaths keeps screaming on ahead.

Comparing rates in different countries

Once more unto the graph, dear friends, once more – cases of coronavirus over time in various countries from February 22nd to today. Same color scheme, and once again line thickness represents the case fatality rate in different countries, from Italy (12 percent) to Australia (0.4 percent). Except now, France has replaced Germany as the purple line.

Several people have asked what the graph would look like if we evened out the countries, and plotted them all with the same starting event. There are various choices for the starting event to plot, I chose the date on which the case rate reached one case in one million. Here’s what it looks like:

Usual disclaimers: I’m not an expert, I’m just a guy on the Internet who likes to make graphs of things. I hope I’ve shown you some ways you can look into COVID-19 data for yourself. You can find the data from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data site (download the CSV file from the “Full dataset” link), and you are welcome to use my Excel template.

Update tomorrow, and every day until this pandemic is over.