Graphs day 37, pandemic day 43, day 114 since the first cases were diagnosed. Remember that map I was promising? BOOM!

I don’t know what this map tells us, except that I should keep an eye on Iceland. It’s also hard to tell the difference between different countries with this colorbar – so many just look purple. I’ll try some other choices.

I’ll keep exploring and let you know what I find. I’ll also write a guide explaining how you can use the SciServer website to make a map like this yourself.

Meanwhile I’m still making the usual graphs and counts. Sadly, we’re up to nearly 2,600,000 cases and more than 180,000 deaths. But the good news, maybe, is that the graph of global cases is starting to flatten out. Compare the most recent point to the previous few points.

On the national level, the same patterns continue. Someone asked how China was looking, so I returned them to today’s graph. They’re the nearly flat pink line waaaaaay at the bottom.

I didn’t include China on the graph of progress of the epidemic because it throws off the scale for reading the rest of the countries. Here is that graph:

In terms of deaths per million people, the U.S. has now passed Switzerland:

a full week earlier in the course of its epidemic than Switzerland’s:

Coming tomorrow: more MAPS!

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs; here is an updated version (version 2.3).

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 36, pandemic day 42, day 113 since the first cases were diagnosed. I missed yesterday’s post, so this is data update XXXV and data update XXXVI. I’m recommitting to my goal of posting a data update each and every day. As of today, more than 2.5 million people have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and nearly 175,000 have died.

The last few days I thought I had seen the global case count turn over to sublinear, but no, it keeps chugging away at a constant rate.

Here are the usual graphs, updated through today, April 22, 2020. Not too much. has changed since Monday, although it looks like the epidemic has begun to quiet down in France and Japan. But of course we won’t really know anything until at least one virus incubation period has passed. Keep an eye on France, Japan, Italy, and Switzerland’s curves over the coming two weeks.

For most of the last 36 days, the cases in the United States have tracked along with cases in Italy on a delay – made clear by our usual graph of cases by day after the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000. Well, the U.S. is not tracking Italy anymore – the rate of growth looks more like Belgium’s.

Speaking of Belgium… sadly I had to rescale the graph of deaths per million to display Belgium’s 517 deaths per 1,000,000 people:

The graph also shows that the deaths per capita in the U.S. will almost certainly pass Switzerland tomorrow. As the following graph shows, that is in spite of the U.S. being a week earlier in its epidemic (day 45 since the rate reached 1 per million compared to day 52 in Switzerland).

When looking at number of deaths per million people, the United States is nearly caught up to Switzerland:

…and is ahead of where Switzerland was at this point in the epidemic:

I’m actually done with the maps of cases and deaths by country, but they won’t be useful until I also figure out how to make a color scale. That will probably be tomorrow, unless insomnia makes it tonight.

Thanks to everyone who has told me that they find these regular graphs useful. I haven’t been able to respond to you all individually, but I’ll take some time to talk with you online this weekend.

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs; here is an updated version (version 2.3).

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 34, pandemic day 40, day 111 since the first cases were diagnosed. I missed yesterday’s post, so this is data update XXXIII and data update XXXIV. More than 2.3 million people have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and nearly 165,000 have died.

By popular request, Switzerland has returned to today’s graphs, in their traditional shade of… orange? I tried to make my colors roughly flag-based, but there are too many red and white flags.

Switzerland seems to offer some very encouraging news, as more than any other country on the graph its cases appear to be leveling off. France is leveling off as well, although the trouble with France is that its case fatality rate of 18 percent is the highest of any country on the graph. Linear growth continues in Belgium, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

The continuing linear growth of cases in the U.S. is especially clear when looking at the cases per capita since the “start of the local epidemic,” defined here as the number of days since the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000. Compare the United States to Italy and the United Kingdom to France.

When looking at number of deaths per million people, the United States is nearly caught up to Switzerland:

…and is ahead of where Switzerland was at this point in the epidemic:

I’ve made some progress on the maps, but they’re not quite ready yet. France is fixed, but I can’t seem to find the data for the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, or Turkmenistan. Czech back here tomorrow!

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs; here is an updated version (version 2.3).

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 32, pandemic day 38, day 109 since the first cases were diagnosed. Nearly 2.2 million people have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and more than 153,000 have died.

Remember how I was going to show you a map of cases by country today? It was going to be a beautiful map. Like best map ever. But my awesome map got Franced.

I’d show it to you, but it would have a giant hole where France should be. The problem is the “overseas departments” of France. France is divided into 101 “départments,” roughly equivalent to states in the U.S. or provinces in other countries. Ninety-four départments are in the European continent, two are in Corsica, and the other five are scattered around the world: French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Mayotte, and Réunion. They are part of France just as surely as Hawaii is part of the United States. And the problem is that my geography data considers these five regions, and the European part of France, are considered six separate geographic entities – while the COVID-19 case and death datasets report cases from all areas together as France.

I’ll get this sorted out soon, but in the meantime it’s an excuse for some France jokes. Comment your favorites.

The map may be delayed, but the usual graphs are right on time. Here’s the graph of cases per million people for our usual eight countries: Spain, Belgium, Italy, the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Russia, and Japan. Sigh, I had to rescale the graph yet again because the case rate in Spain has passed 4,000 per million. In other words, more than 0.4 percent of the entire population of Spain has at some point been diagnosed with COVID-19. Reminder: COVID-19 did not exist four months ago.

Here is the graph of cases per million by “days elapsed in the local epidemic” – the number of days after the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000. This map makes it easier to see that, while the growth rate in Italy and Spain has fallen to sub-linear, growth continues at a linear rate in the UK and the US – and it appears to be continuing at an exponential rate in Russia. Meanwhile, Japan had the virus beaten but released its precautionary measures too early. Fortunately, those measures are back in place so we should soon see the rate fall again.

Belgium continues to lead the world in deaths per million people:

…and unfortunately it’s even clearer when comparing Belgium to Spain and Italy in terms of days elapsed:\

The usual graphs will be back tomorrow – and hopefully I’ll add maps of cases and deaths by country. France willing.

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs; here’s the latest version with all the graphs including Russia and Japan.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 31, pandemic day 37, day 108 since the first cases were diagnosed. More than 2.1 million people have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and more than 145,000 have died.

The graph of cases per million people shows that the case rate in Belgium is well on its way to matching Spain’s:

and also that the UK’s rate is nearing that of France. Also, note that, unlike in Italy or France, the rate of new cases in the U.S. has not slowed to sublinear. Quick, someone tell Greg Abbott and Ron DeSantis!

The Abbott-DeSantis Effect (my new name for “people dying because governors won’t accept reality”) is even clearer when looking at cases per million with equivalent start times, where the line for Italy starts to bend down right at the point where the line for the U.S. continues to rise.

In terms of deaths per capita, Belgium has taken over first place from Spain:

…and unfortunately the death rate in Belgium shows no sign of slowing. The shocking pace of dying in Belgium is even clearer when looking at the graph from equivalent points in the epidemic:

I’m working on a Python script that will, among other things, let me make maps as well as graphs. Stay tuned for maps tomorrow!

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs; here’s the latest version with all the graphs including Russia and Japan.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 30, pandemic day 36, day 107 since the first cases were diagnosed. Global cases have now passed two million, so sadly I’ve had to rescale the graph again. More than 135,000 people have died. But the good news is that, for the first time, we are seeing signs of a slowdown in the rate of new cases.

The graph of cases per million people shows that the case rate in Belgium has passed Italy and is rapidly gaining on Spain:

Looking at the plot scaled to equivalent points in the epidemic (measured as the number of days after the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000), it becomes easier to see that case rates are continuing to grow quickly in the US, the UK, and Russia:

The situation in Belgium looks even worse when looking at deaths per million people:

And looking at deaths per day elapsed shows that deaths are still increasing in France even as the rate of cases decreases. That’s to be expected, and the increase in deaths will come to an end soon.

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs; here’s the latest version with all the graphs including Russia and Japan.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.