UPDATED with the correct version of the cases by day elapsed graph!

Graphs day 24, pandemic day 30, day 101 since the first cases were diagnosed. Sadly I’ve had to rescale the graph of total cases on Earth – we have passed 1,500,000.

Here is our usual graph of the number of cases per million people in various countries, with the line thickness representing the case fatality rate in that country. The first graph shows the number of cases in each country by calendar day, the second shows by the number of days after the case rate reached 1 per 1,000,000 (thus putting all countries on the same timescale).

And here are the same graphs but for deaths per million people (line thicknesses are all the same):

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 23, pandemic day 29, day 100 since the first cases were diagnosed. Nearly 1.5 million people worldwide have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and nearly 90,000 have died. Sadly, as the number of cases worldwide closes in on 1.5 million, we are close to another graph scale reset.

Here is our usual graph of the number of cases, with the line thickness representing the case fatality rate in that country. The case rate in the United States has now passed that in France.

Several people asked for the return of the graph of deaths by country. Here you go – in this graph, all lines have the same thickness:

As we had predicted would happen, the per capita deaths in Spain have exceeded those in Italy. Notice also how the line for Switzerland is so low and the line for France is so high.

Tomorrow I’ll make a plot of deaths by country with equivalent starting points, like I did for the plot of cases. Stay tuned.

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 22, pandemic day 28, day 99 since the first cases were diagnosed. More than 1.3 million people worldwide have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and more than 80,000 have died. Our usual graphs are below. The rate of new cases and deaths continues to increase roughly linearly.

The bad news is that I have had to rescale the countries graph again – Spain now has an diagnosed case rate higher than 3,000 cases per million. The good news is that in Switzerland and Italy, it appears that the rate of new cases is finally starting to slow down.

Once again – everything we are doing is working. Keep doing it!

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 21, pandemic day 27, day 98 since the first cases were diagnosed. More than 1.3 million people worldwide have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and nearly 75,000 have died. Our usual graphs are below. The rate of new cases and deaths continues to increase roughly linearly. A linear increase results in way fewer sick and dead people than an exponential increase.

What would be even better than linearly increasing? No longer increasing at all. And we’ll get there – if we keep doing everything we are doing. Keep your distance, wash your hands, and follow the advice of medical and public health professionals.

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 20, pandemic day 26, day 97 since the first cases were diagnosed. More than 1.2 million people worldwide have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and more than 68,000 have died. The good news is that in all three of today’s graphs, it definitely looks like the exponential phase of growth is over pretty much everywhere. But the rate of cases and deaths is still growing, and this pandemic will still get worse before it gets better.

The most important thing I can say about these graphs is that they show that the curve is starting to flatten, and the curve is starting to flatten BECAUSE we are taking the right steps! Don’t stop now – keep isolating! We are starting to turn it around, but there is still a lot more work to do.

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.