How I wish this were an April Fool’s Day post. Instead, it’s day damn 15 of graphs, day 21 of the pandemic, and day 92 since the first case reports. It’s never good when I have to rescale the graph, and I did today with the global case count. The scale used to go to up to 900,000 (thicker line), now it goes up to 1,500,000.
Current global count: 850,000 cases and 41,000 deaths. When will the world see its one millionth case of COVID-19? My projections say this Saturday.
Cases in individual countries
New graphs and new countries today. I’ve removed China and Iran and added in their place Switzerland and Germany. They have inherited the other countries’ colors (Switzerland is red and Germany is purple) – but I made the lines dashed to remind you they are not China and Iran. Why those countries? See below.
As always, this is cases of COVID-19 per million people. Thanks to my anonymous friend who suggested I add data labels (you know who you are!). I’m not sure how well it works, let me know how I can improve the look of the graph.
Note how Switzerland’s cases per capita were below Italy and above Spain for most of March, but the order has now reversed. The rate of case growth has slowed greatly in Italy, slowed somewhat in Spain, and slowed almost not at all in Spain.
For the second day in a row, the rate of case growth has slowed in Belgium. The only countries where the the rate does not appear to have slowed are Spain, the United States, and the United Kingdom.
Deaths in individual countries
And here is a graph of deaths per million people. Same countries, same colors, same data labels, same deal.
Note that, even though Germany and Switzerland have as many cases as the other countries in the case graphs, they have fewer deaths. The case fatality rates in Germany and Switzerland are both quite low.
As always, I’m not an expert, I’m just a guy on the Internet who likes to make graphs of things. I hope I’ve shown you some ways you can look into COVID-19 data for yourself. You can find the data from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data site (download the CSV file from the “Full dataset” link), and you are welcome to use my Excel template.
Update tomorrow, and every day until this pandemic is over.
Seriously I had to look it up. This is daily COVID-19 data update XIV (14), day XX (20) of the pandemic, and day XCI (91) since the first cases were reported in Wuhan. Chinese health authorities are looking back at potential cases before COVID-19 was identified as a new disease, and they have found likely cases as early as CXXXV days ago (November 17, 2019, which was 135 days ago).
Thumbs down to Roman numberals: I.V out of V stars, would not buy again
I hate Roman numerals, why did I decide to use them here?
Speaking of forced segues between slightly-related concepts, I’ve been noting encouraging news out of Italy, where the rate of new diagnoses is slowing down. But remember that COVID-19 is still a disaster in the only geographic unit that really matters, Earth. The disease has now reached even highly isolated South Sudan and the far-flung Northern Mariana Islands. COVID-19 cases worldwide continue their depressing exponential growth, as shown in the graph below. Nearly 800,000 people have been diagnosed and nearly 40,000 have died.
Cases and deaths in individual countries
As long as it continues to be useful and interesting, I will keep tracking case and death rates in eight countries: China, the United States, Iran, Italy, Spain, France Belgium, the United Kingdom, and Australia.
The graph of cases rates per country is first (diagnosed cases per million people), and the graph of deaths is next. See the legend at the bottom of each graph below to see which line represents which country. As always, suggestions on how to improve the graph are welcome.
Spain is running up the score on Italy in terms of cases per million people, and is on pace to become the leader in COVID-19 death rate soon. The case rate in the U.S. has passed that of Iran, and Belgium is nearly tied with France in death rate.
A word about China – the solid red line in both graphs. The flat line means either that they haven’t had any cases or deaths in a while, or that they are vastly underreporting their true cases, or both. And although I don’t trust the Chinese government any further than I can kick them, I think the amount of lying required to hide a raging epidemic in Wuhan or Guangzhou or Beijing is beyond even their ability to lie. There are enough foreigners with tunnel access to the open Internet that we’d at least be hearing about full hospitals and cemeteries from them. So I think we need to at least approximately take them at their word until we get evidence of additional Chinese cases from someone. I might remove China from the graphs starting tomorrow.
As always, I’m not an expert, I’m just a guy on the Internet who likes to make graphs of things. I hope I’ve shown you some ways you can look into COVID-19 data for yourself. You can find the data from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data site (download the CSV file from the “Full dataset” link), and you are welcome to use my Excel template.
Update tomorrow, and every day until this pandemic is over.
Will North Carolina win the CBI and prove they are number 101?
While we wait for the start of the Imaginary Final Four on Saturday, imaginary college basketball goes on!
The NIT and CBI tournament first rounds have finished, and the second rounds are ready to begin. Here are the results, the brackets, and the upcoming schedules. First, the CBI.
Here is the updated bracket for the CBI – scrawled on a sheet of notebook paper because the CBI is a low-budget affair.
National Invitational Tournament (NIT)
The NIT first round is done, with only one major upset – and it’s a big one, as the East regional’s top seed, Indiana, lost to Radford. Here is the full list of results:
Imaginary college basketball returns tonight with four NIT second round games, and continues tomorrow with four CBI and four NIT second round games, followed by the CBI semifinals in prime time.
Tuesday March 31st: NIT second round
8 PM ET: (1) Alabama vs. (5) Oklahoma State (South) 9 PM ET: (4) Syracuse vs. (8) Radford (East) 10 PM ET: (2) Minnesota vs. (3) Connecticut (Midwest) 11 PM ET: (1) Stanford vs. (4) Texas (West)
Wednesday April 1st: CBI second round
8 AM ET: (3) Furman vs. (6) Clemson 9 AM ET: (2) Xavier vs. (7) UNC Greensboro 10 AM ET: (4) Georgetown vs. (12) Georgia 11 AM ET: (1) North Carolina vs. (9) Missouri
Wednesday April 1st: NIT second round
Noon ET: (2) NC State vs. (3) Rhode Island (East) 1 PM ET: (1) Northern Iowa vs. (5) Akron (Midwest) 2 PM ET: (2) Oklahoma vs. (3) Purdue (West) 3 PM ET: (2) Arizona State vs. (3) North Texas (South)
Wednesday April 1st: CBI semifinals
8 PM ET: North Carolina / Missouri vs. Georgetown / Georgia 10 PM ET: Xavier / UNC Greensboro vs. Furman / Clemson
Day thirteen of me graphing data, day nineteen of the pandemic (as declared by the World Health Organization), day ninety since the first cases were reported in Wuhan. Worldwide as of 5:45 AM ET this morning, more than 700,000 people have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and more than 33,000 have died.
Yesterday I posted graphs of the total number of cases and deaths worldwide. Today the number of cases and deaths continues on the same trend as before. On the level of national data, I am continuing to track the number of cases and deaths in China, the United States, Iran, Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, the United Kingdom, and Australia. The graphs below show cases and deaths per million people in each country. As always, suggestions on how to improve the graphs are welcome.
Cases per million people
Spain has taken the lead over Italy as the country with the most cases of COVID-19 per million people, with 1,673 cases per million versus 1,622 per million in Italy. Belgium has moved into third place with 940 cases per million people. And the growth rate in the U.S. (blue dotted line) continues to increase.
Deaths per million people
Italy still leads the world in per-capita deaths, with 179 deaths per million people. Belgium has overtaken France as well.
You can find the data from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data site (download the CSV file from the “Full dataset” link). And here is my Excel template.
Update tomorrow, and every day until this pandemic is over.
