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Graphs day 97, pandemic day 104, day 174 since the first cases were diagnosed. I still have our usual graphs of cases and deaths by country, and today I’ll also present the much-anticipated first results of my deeper look at the COVID-19 epidemic in my home country, the United States.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 8,926,399

Total deaths: 468,257

We will almost certainly reach nine million cumulative cases worldwide tomorrow. Worldwide cases by day are shown on our usual graph below; actual cases in blue and smoothed cases in red to see the overall trend:

Countries that are headed in the right direction(-ish):

And countries whose epidemics continue to get worse – although see the discussion below for what is probably some well-deserved good news.

Plenty of bad news to go around: Chile is still Looney Tunes increasing, Brazil is back up after what looked briefly like a plateau, and the U.S. is definitely on its way up. But for good news, look at Sweden. There was clearly a high peak in early June – higher than the previous peak of mid-April – but numbers are falling back down to April levels. If case numbers in Sweden are even lower tomorrow, I will gleefully move them into the “headed in the right direction” category.

A closer look at the United States

I’ve spent lots of time the last few weeks looking at various data sources to get a more detailed look at cases and deaths by U.S. state and county. Today I’ll show the state data; in the near future I’ll show the county data as well. I’m plotting data from the Corona Data Scraper website. State and county data are one day behind the national-level data.

For today, we’ll look at today’s data on a map of the U.S. Tomorrow, I’ll show a preliminary version of the kinds of graphs I’ve been making for countries, but for U.S. states. Which states have COVID-19 under control for now, and which do not? Find out tomorrow!

Maps

I’m quite proud of these maps. In addition to the work I’ve done the last couple weeks to show the data, I’ve quietly done a lot of work on mapping techniques (shapefiles and projections). Just figuring out how to properly show Hawaii took me nearly a week. I’m pretty happy with the results you see below.

Cases by state

As always, I like to start by plotting the thing that was actually measured, before doing any adjustments to provide additional insights. In the end it will be most useful to plot cases per million people (which will allow us to directly compare states to other countries), but first here is a map of total cases in each of the 50 states:

Remember that for each state, this map shows total cases reported since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. That includes people who have since recovered, people who have died of COVID-19, and people who are still sick. Each of the people represented in this graph counts toward the 8,926,399 cases reported worldwide.

Cases per million people by state

Dividing the numbers in the above map by the population of each state, and multiplying by one million, gives a better measure of how tragically COVID-19 has affected each state. Doing that and putting the numbers on the same U.S. map:

Because closer interactions between people lead to more opportunities for viruses to spread, it might make even more sense to adjust by population density as well. I’ll play with that in future maps.

Deaths by state

The previous two maps were both of reported cases. As mentioned above, that includes people who have since recovered. But nobody recovers from death, so a map of the total number of people dead from COVID-19 makes for the most useful comparison. Here is that map:

Note that no one has yet died of COVID-19 in Hawaii. I’m a bit surprised by that given how much international travel there is into Hawaii, and it’s always possible that I did something wrong in my analysis. If you know differently, leave a comment.

Deaths per million people by state

Just as I did with cases, I divided the total deaths in each state by that state’s population, multiplied by one million, and plotted the results on the same kind of map:

Whew, that was a lot of work and a lot of fun. Tomorrow, I’ll start showing time-based graphs for states like I do for countries. That means we can compare states to one another and to various countries. New York has almost the same population as Chile (about 19 million each), and Massachusetts has almost hte same population as Serbia (about 7 million each). How to the graphs compare?

Fun with data

Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make the country graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You can get the U.S. state data from the Corona Data Scraper site; choose today’s data as CSV.

If it would help you to start from my Excel templates, please use them! The county data and analysis is in my national-level data template (now version 4.2). Data and analysis for U.S. states is in my new state-level template (version 1.0).

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end. And an additional post coming Wednesday, about something other than COVID-19.

Graphs day 96, pandemic day 103, day 173 since the first cases were diagnosed.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 8,795,672

Total deaths: 466,189

Worldwide cases by day, shown as actual cases in blue and smoothed cases in red, showing the overall trend:

Notice that worldwide cases are clearly trending up again. It seems that every time we think the case rate has plateaued, it starts to increase again. Daily cases now stand at 19.3 per million people worldwide, even though the world’s two largest countries (China and India) are doing pretty well.

As usual, let’s look first at the case history of countries where the daily rates are at least headed in the right direction:

A friend described the curve for Qatar as a “Looney Tunes graph,” which I think is a wonderfully appropriate name. Eventually Qatar will Looney Tune its way back down onto the main graph. The good news is that the curves for all countries on the graph are definitely on their way down, even Russia.

Next graph, countries where epidemics continue to get worse:

Chile has also Looney Tuned its way off this graph, with no sign of when they will return to the main graph. Sweden looks like it might finally be on its way down; if cases continue to decrease over the next few days, I’ll move Sweden onto the “headed in the right direction” graph.

Coming tomorrow: a closer look at cases and deaths in the United States.

Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You’re still welcome to use my Excel template – I added a section for making the deaths graph to what is now verison 4.1, so that is the only one you need.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.

Graphs day 95, pandemic day 102, day 172 since the first cases were diagnosed.

I’m looking in more detail at cases and deaths in the United States, and I’m working on a more detailed post with state-by-state data. That’s coming possibly tonight, probably Monday.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 8,633,778

Total deaths: 462,676

Worldwide cases by day, shown as actual cases in blue and smoothed cases in red, showing the overall trend:

COVID-19 is still under control in the countries where it was under control two days ago, so we don’t need to look at those today. Instead let’s look at the case history of countries where the daily rates are at least headed in the right direction:

One new feature of today’s graph is that I have added Qatar to the the main graph as well. You can see that on April 22, cases in Qatar went literally off the chart by passing 200 cases per million people per day. If cases in Qatar continue to decrease, then at some point they will fall below 200 per million per day again, and the red curve for Qatar will once again appear on the main graph. I look forward to that day, and so does everyone in Qatar.

Next, countries where epidemics continue to get worse, sadly still including the U.S.:

Chile has the same deal as Qatar – cases went off the main chart starting on May 24th. Someday cases will drop back down below 200 per million per day again – although as you can see from the inset graph, there’s no telling when that might be.

Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You’re still welcome to use my Excel template – I added a section for making the deaths graph to what is now verison 4.1, so that is the only one you need.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.

Graphs day 93, pandemic day 100, day 170 since the first cases were diagnosed.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 8,317,573

Total deaths: 450,630

I’ll start with the biggest “oh shi-” news:

There are more than 36,000 new cases reported today in Chile.

Obviously that doesn’t mean 36,000 people suddenly got sick today; there’s some catching up of previously unreported cases in that number. But it’s big enough to have a noticeable effect on today’s worldwide case numbers, requiring another damn rescaling:

And as you’ll see below, the latest increase pushes Chile’s numbers to truly stratospheric, Qatar-esque levels. Both Chile and Qatar are so far above the other countries in their categories (Getting Worse and Headed in the Right Direction, respectively) that I had to make inset graphs for both of them.

Here’s the map of cases per million people in various countries in Europe and South America – look at the bright shining yellow that is Chile:

And here are the graphs of the history of the epidemic, divided into our four usual categories. I rescaled the main graphs to have a maximum of 200 cases per million per day, and the inset graphs to a maximum of 700 cases per million per day. Even that may not prove to be enough for Chile.

Also new on the Getting Worse graph, I’m following two new countries: Mexico and Panama. As before, line thickness and label size represent the case fatality rate in each country, and the labels give deaths per million people (dpm).

Countries where COVID-19 was quickly contained

These countries acted so quickly and decisively that they never had many COVID-19 cases or deaths.

Countries where COVID-19 is currently under control

These countries experienced severe COVID-19 epidemics that killed many people, but they have all now brought the number of cases down close to zero.

Countries where cases are headed in the right direction-ish

The same countries in this category as yesterday, with a new 0-200 scale on the main graph and 0-700 on the Qatarific inset.

The dead flat curve in Russia still sorries me, but the other countries all seem to be headed the right way.

Countries where the epidemic is getting worse

The graph now includes Mexico (green) and Panama (purple). Sadly, cases in the U.S. continue to grow. More sadly, Chile has now zoomed off the scale completely into the inset graph. Look at the curve for Chile.

Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You’re still welcome to use my Excel template – I added a section for making the deaths graph to what is now verison 4.1, so that is the only one you need.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.

Graphs day 92, pandemic day 98, day 169 since the first cases were diagnosed.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 8,142,129

Total deaths: 443,488

It’s Wednesday in the usual Monday-Wednesday-Friday schedule, so it’s a longer post today. I’ll look at COVID-19 cases and deaths in our usual four categories of countries, based on the current progress of their local COVID-19 epidemic. Unfortunately, two large countries have traded places.

I’ll also show a new way of visualizing deaths on the same plot as cases. I’d love to know what you think of this new strategy. Leave a comment or let me know on le social media.

Worldwide cases

Plotting the number of new cases reported each day results in a curve that goes up and down as the pandemic waxes and wanes. Here’s what that type of graph looks like for the entire world over the entire history of the pandemic:

Throughout April, the curve held steady, and it looked like the pandemic was hitting its peak and headed toward a decline. Sadly, in May and June the number of daily cases has increased again. The pandemic is likely to get worse before it gets better.

Worldwide deaths

I’ll present some other ways of showing deaths by country later on in this post, but first let’s remind ourselves of what deaths look like worldwide. As mentioned above, 443,488 people have died of COVID-19. More than three-quarters of the worldwide deaths have come in just nine countries: the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Italy, France, Spain, Mexico, India, and Belgium. Cumulative total deaths per day for those nine countries are shown in this graph:

A flat line in this graph means a country where daily deaths have fallen to near zero. Deaths have gone close to zero in all of continental Europe; and while deaths are still increasing in the U.K., they are increasing at a much slower rate than just a few months ago.

Unfortunately, in all the non-European countries on the graph, deaths continue to grow at a disturbing rate.

Converting total deaths to per-capita numbers and showing them on a map for the entire world:

and lastly, embiggening that map to focus on the regions with the highest per-capita death rate, Europe and the Americas:

Cases and deaths per million people by country

For a while now, I’ve been looking for a way to include information about deaths on the same graph as information about cases. This has become harder now that I’m still presenting deaths as a total (cumulative) amount of dead people, while now showing cases as daily reports.

But I think I have figured out a way to show both kinds of information on the same graph. Take a look below and let me know what you think.

I’ll show four separate graphs, corresponding to each of the categories of current epidemic state that we’ve been using so far. In all the graphs below, I have changed the way I do the data labels – the label now gives the name of the country along with the number of deaths per million people there (abbreviated dpm).

As before, the line thickness represents the case fatality rate (CFR) – the percentage of people who have ever been diagnosed with COVID-19 who have since died from COVID-19 (which varies from 0.1% in Qatar to nearly 19% in France). What’s new is that the size of the data label also indicates case fatality rate. Larger labels mean countries where COVID-19 is more likely to kill.

On to the graphs, sorted by the current state of the COVID-19 epidemic!

Countries where COVID-19 was quickly contained

Thanks to taking swift and decisive action to combat the pandemic, China, South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand never had many COVID-19 cases or deaths to begin with. Note that the case fatality rates in South Korea and Australia were particularly low.

Countries where COVID-19 is currently under control

These countries experienced severe COVID-19 epidemics that killed many people, but they have all now brought the number of cases down close to zero.

Notice that the case fatality rate is fairly high in Belgium, France, and Italy – and fairly low in Switzerland and Serbia. In all these places, cases peaked between late March and mid-April. Last week I was worried that cases in Belgium might be rising again, but the good news is that cases there have been falling again.

Countries where cases are steady or decreasing

Several countries haven’t gotten their epidemics under control, but they seem to be headed in the right direction – daily cases are steady or decreasing. Peru is back on this list. Notice who’s gone?

Note that the inset graph has a different scale, going up to 700 cases per million people. That larger scale is needed to show Qatar, which has far more cases than other countries. The case fatality rate in the U.K. is quite a lot higher than the other countries on this list.

I haven’t shown you the curve for the U.S. yet – and tragically, there is only one category left.

Countries where the epidemic is getting worse

I really, really, really wish I didn’t have to say this, but: cases in the United States have increased each of the last three days. And so, sadly, the U.S. moves into the “getting worse” category, joining Chile, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, and India.

Sweden has by far the highest case fatality rate on this list.

Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You’re still welcome to use my Excel template – I added a section for making the deaths graph to what is now verison 4.1, so that is the only one you need.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.