Category: Uncategorized

Graphs day 80, pandemic day 86, day 157 since the first cases were diagnosed.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 6,603,329

Total deaths: 391,732

Cases and deaths continue to grow at a steady rate. Cases continue to run ahead of my May 16th estimate (black line), and deaths continue to run behind.

No maps today, because another change to the ECDC schema once again broke my Python script. I should really figure out what to do about that. And 80 is an even-numbered day, so we’ll look at the rate of cases on an even scale, as days elapsed since the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000.

Cases per million people by country

Chile is still in the lead for cases per million people, and cases there blew past 6,000 per million today. So I have had to rescale the graph again; it now runs from 0 to 7,000 cases per million. At the rate that cases in Chile are growing, I’ll probably need to rescale again soon.

Notice also the bumps in cases in both Sweden and Brazil.

Deaths per million people by country

Since I rescaled the vertical axis of cases to have a maximum of 7,000 per million, it made sense to rescale the vertical axis of deaths to a maximum of 700 per million.

Brazil and Peru had been trending close together, but Brazil has now opened a sizable lead. The rate of deaths in the U.S. is slowing down, and that is great news. Hopefully that trend will continue.

Want to try out some graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (version 3.3). I’d love to see what you can build with it, and I’m happy to help you figure it out!

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.

Graphs day 79, pandemic day 85, day 156 since the first cases were diagnosed.

If you didn’t see my special guest post on the 31st anniversary of the Tiananmen Square Massacre, take a look now.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 6,475,644

Total deaths: 386,544

Today is the day I predicted that we would reach 400,000 deaths worldwide – and we are at only 386,544. I am very happy to be wrong – 13,456 times happy, to be exact. Here are the current worldwide cases and deaths (dots) and the track of my predictions of May 16th (black lines).

I’m not sure I can explain why the number of deaths is running behind my prediction even as the number of cases far exceeds my prediction, but I’ll take it.

Just the usual maps of Europe and South America today, but we’ll check back in with the whole world soon. And it’s an odd-numbered day, so we’ll look at the rate of cases and deaths by day from mid-February to day.

Cases per million people by country

Cases per million people – first the rate today displayed on a map:

Chile has further increased its lead over the other countries we track:

Yesterday we noted that cases in Peru had flattened, and I suspected that it was just a delay in reporting. Called it – cases in Peru are way up today.

Deaths per million people by country

Now that we’re not regularly tracking Belgium and its unusually high number of deaths, the graphs were starting to look lonely. So I rescaled both map and graph to have a maximum of 600 deaths per million people.

First the map:

and now the graph:

Sadly, it looks like we’ll need to rescale again tomorrow, as the U.K. nears 600 deaths per million people.

Want to rescale the graphs yourself? Want to make totally new graphs? I’d love to see what you can do to visualize the data! You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (version 3.3). I’d love to see what you can build with it, and I’m happy to help you figure it out!

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.

Nimen hao, comrades! This is the Grass Mud Horse with a special message.

On this day in 1989, nothing happened.

Our glorious People’s Republic experienced a temporary adjustment to our population, as would have happened if some members of our glorious nation were depopluated. Except they weren’t.

Perhaps some ideology was expressed, but such ideology is no longer relevant.

Certainly no one was “killed” by the People’s Liberation Army. See the picture below: there was no death, there was only the Grass Mud Horse (Editor’s note + content warning: please click on the photo to see what actually happened).

The glorious river crab (河蟹, héxiè) reminds you to put on your three wristwatches (帶三個錶, dài sān ge biÇŽo) and join our harmonious society led by our Dear Leader (pictured below).

Our Dear Leader is the greatest leader in the history of the world. No other leader has ever been so great. He will be our Dear Leader forever. All glory to our Dear Leader!

Comrade, remember the Three Laws of the Grass Mud Horse:

1. The government is always right.
2. If the government is wrong, see Rule 1.
3. If the government is still wrong, see Rule 2.

So if the government says that no helicopters were used to disperse and possibly fire on the protestors, then no helicopters were used to disperse and possibly fire on the protestors. Wait, did I say “protestors”? There were no protestors either.

There may have been some riots and violent looters, and the government may have taken some action to protect you from them. The government only wants to protect you. The government is always right.

But what happened to these thugs, if there were any thugs, which there weren’t? They were certainly not massacred by the People’s Liberation Army. And definitely not by any helicopters. Because there were no helicopters.

Enjoy a prosperous and obedient year in our glorious nation!

Now back to Jordan.

Note from Jordan: Thanks to the Grass Mud Horse for this special post, which… wait, did you think he was talking about China?

Graphs day 78, pandemic day 84, day 155 since the first cases were diagnosed.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 6,245,352

Total deaths: 376,427

We continue to be far ahead of my May 16th predictions of total cases and slightly behind my May 16th prediction of total deaths.

One important piece of news that you won’t be seeing in today’s update, because I’m not currently tracking it in the maps and graphs, is that Qatar has taken over top spot in the entire world for cases per capita.

Previously, thanks to the magic of small number statistics and having just 687 cases in a population of just over 30,000 (for a per capita case load of more than 20,000 per million people). But now Qatar, with a sizable population of about 3,000,000, has 60,259 cases (for a per capita case load of 20,915 per million).

Qatar still has a very low death rate, and I think I might have figured out why. More in a near-future post.

Pay particular attention to the maps in today’s update, because I’m sharing a map of the entire world in addition to the usual maps of Europe and South America. I think it’s valuable to sometimes step back and take a look at the big picture, and of course the whole world is the big picture. Also, it’s amazing how much lower figures are in Africa than in the rest of the world. Travel into and out of Africa happens a lot, but far less frequently than travel between other regions of the world. Less travel means fewer opportunities for diseases to enter.

Cases per million people by country

First, the big picture – a map of COVID-19 cases per million people for every country in the world (Turkmenistan, North Korea, and Somaliland are pink because they have no data). Click on the map for a larger version.

and the usual map highlighting countries in Europe and South America:

Notice how quickly Peru and Chile have turned bright yellow. Chile is now even brighter yellow than the United States. Another way to see Chile’s high number of cases is with our usual graph – again, it’s an even-numbered day, so we look at countries on an even scale:

The flattening of the curve in Peru and Russia doesn’t mean that there were really no new cases today in those countries, it just means that no new cases were included in the report. And we’re not seeing rise in cases in the U.S. as a result of Memorial Day weekend – but on the other hand, we’re not seeing a fall in cases either.

Deaths per million people by country

Big picture map first:

and a close-up map of Europe and South America:

Note that the death rate is low in Chile and Peru, and increasing slowly. Both countries have quality and affordable health care systems, so that might be the reason – or it might simply be that we need to wait a couple weeks for an increase in deaths to catch up with the increase in cases.

And to show those trends more clearly, here is the usual graph of the usual countries:

Like my graphs and want to add to them? Hate my graphs and want to do it your own way? Either way, I’d love to see what you can do to visualize the data! You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (version 3.3). I’d love to see what you can build with it, and I’m happy to help you figure it out!

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.

Coming tomorrow: a post from a Very Special Guest!

Graphs day 77, pandemic day 83, day 154 since the first cases were diagnosed. If you haven’t seen my other post today, check it out now, funk soul brother.

The good news is that nearly all governors have said “lol wtf no” to Trump’s plan to deploy the U.S. military against U.S. citizens on U.S. soil, so at least for another day we avoid American Tiananmen. The Grass Mud Horse lives to make bad jokes another day.

The bad news is that the continuing nationwide protests over the killing of George Floyd have created the perfect environment for COVID-19 to spread. If there’s a spike in cases in the U.S. from Memorial Day weekend, we should start seeing it right about now. If there’s a spike from the recent protests, we should start to see it by the end of next week. If there is not a spike, I think that’s an excellent sign that the first peak of the epidemic in the U.S. is passing.

Also of note is that Chile has now passed the United States for first place in the Big Ten of cases. The United Kingdom is still in first place for deaths.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 6,245,352

Total deaths: 376,427

Cases per million people by country

Deaths per million people by country

Please try it yourself! You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (version 3.3). I’d love to see what you can build with it, and I’m happy to help you figure it out!

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end, unless the U.S. government comes for me first.

Coming Thursday: a post from a Very Special Guest!