Graphs day 78, pandemic day 84, day 155 since the first cases were diagnosed.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 6,245,352

Total deaths: 376,427

We continue to be far ahead of my May 16th predictions of total cases and slightly behind my May 16th prediction of total deaths.

One important piece of news that you won’t be seeing in today’s update, because I’m not currently tracking it in the maps and graphs, is that Qatar has taken over top spot in the entire world for cases per capita.

Previously, thanks to the magic of small number statistics and having just 687 cases in a population of just over 30,000 (for a per capita case load of more than 20,000 per million people). But now Qatar, with a sizable population of about 3,000,000, has 60,259 cases (for a per capita case load of 20,915 per million).

Qatar still has a very low death rate, and I think I might have figured out why. More in a near-future post.

Pay particular attention to the maps in today’s update, because I’m sharing a map of the entire world in addition to the usual maps of Europe and South America. I think it’s valuable to sometimes step back and take a look at the big picture, and of course the whole world is the big picture. Also, it’s amazing how much lower figures are in Africa than in the rest of the world. Travel into and out of Africa happens a lot, but far less frequently than travel between other regions of the world. Less travel means fewer opportunities for diseases to enter.

Cases per million people by country

First, the big picture – a map of COVID-19 cases per million people for every country in the world (Turkmenistan, North Korea, and Somaliland are pink because they have no data). Click on the map for a larger version.

and the usual map highlighting countries in Europe and South America:

Notice how quickly Peru and Chile have turned bright yellow. Chile is now even brighter yellow than the United States. Another way to see Chile’s high number of cases is with our usual graph – again, it’s an even-numbered day, so we look at countries on an even scale:

The flattening of the curve in Peru and Russia doesn’t mean that there were really no new cases today in those countries, it just means that no new cases were included in the report. And we’re not seeing rise in cases in the U.S. as a result of Memorial Day weekend – but on the other hand, we’re not seeing a fall in cases either.

Deaths per million people by country

Big picture map first:

and a close-up map of Europe and South America:

Note that the death rate is low in Chile and Peru, and increasing slowly. Both countries have quality and affordable health care systems, so that might be the reason – or it might simply be that we need to wait a couple weeks for an increase in deaths to catch up with the increase in cases.

And to show those trends more clearly, here is the usual graph of the usual countries:

Like my graphs and want to add to them? Hate my graphs and want to do it your own way? Either way, I’d love to see what you can do to visualize the data! You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (version 3.3). I’d love to see what you can build with it, and I’m happy to help you figure it out!

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.

Coming tomorrow: a post from a Very Special Guest!