From yesterday’s peaceful protest in Washington, DC, but with music.
Daily COVID-19 data update LXXVI: when the tanks go marching in
The President of the United States is deploying the U.S. military to crush protests by unarmed American civilians.
Suddenly, COVID-19 doesn’t seem so important – but people are still dying. It’s now graphs day 76, pandemic day 82, day 153 since the first cases were diagnosed.
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 6,136,085
Total deaths: 371,857
Today’s cases and deaths per country are presented as usual on maps, and in graphs using the new Big Ten Countries: The United States, The United Kingdom, Russia, Sweden, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Chile, Peru, and Belarus. Today is an even-numbered day, so we’ll look at the progress of the pandemic day by day since February.
Cases per million people by country
Deaths per million people by country
Please try it yourself! You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (version 3.3). I’d love to see what you can build with it, and I’m happy to help you figure it out!
Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end, unless the U.S. government comes for me first. In which case, I give this blog to my good friend, the Grass Mud Horse.
Daily COVID-19 data update LXXV and six million
Graphs day 75, pandemic day 81, day 152 since the first cases were diagnosed. We have hit six million cases worldwide, a full five days before I predicted. I hate being right.
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 6,028,135
Total deaths: 368,944
The good news is that my predictions of deaths are still behind schedule. I might issue a new set of predictions soon. If I do, I’ll let you know. Here’s the graph of worldwide cases so you can follow along.
Today’s cases and deaths per country are presented as usual on maps, and in graphs using the new Big Ten Countries: The United States, The United Kingdom, Russia, Sweden, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Chile, Peru, and Belarus. Today is an odd-numbered day, so we’ll look at the progress of the pandemic day by day since February.
Cases per million people by country
Deaths per million people by country
Please try it yourself! You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (version 3.3). I’d love to see what you can build with it, and I’m happy to help you figure it out!
Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.
Daily COVID-19 data update LXXIV
With so much other news, it’s easy to forget that today is graphs day 74, pandemic day 80, day 151 since the first cases were diagnosed. I’ve got plenty to say about the murder of George Floyd and the urban vandalism that followed, and I’ll say some of it on my regular Monday-Wednesday-Friday schedule.
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 5,899,866
Total deaths: 364,891
Two weeks ago, I had predicted that we would hit 400,000 deaths on Monday June 1st, and six million cases next Thursday, June 4th. It looks like the predictions will be behind schedule on the former and ahead of schedule on the latter. We could hit six million as early as tomorrow.
Today’s cases and deaths per country are presented as usual on maps, and in graphs using the new Big Ten Countries: The United States, The United Kingdom, Russia, Sweden, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Chile, Peru, and Belarus. Today is an even-numbered day, so we’ll look at the progress of the epidemic on equal scales in each country.
Cases per million people by country
Deaths per million people by country
If you want to try any of this analysis for yourself, you can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (version 3.3). I’d love to see what you can build with it, and I’m happy to help you figure it out!
Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.
Daily COVID-19 data update LXXIII, Big 10 realignment edition
Graphs day 73, pandemic day 79, day 150 since the first cases were diagnosed. Cases and deaths per million in Spain, Belgium, and Italy have been stable for a long time, so I have done what would have been unthinkable just two months ago: stopped tracking cases and deaths in those countries.
I’ve been referring to the countries I track as the “Big 10,” so today it’s time to change up the members of that club. I’m dropping Spain, Belgium, and Italy, and adding three countries where the case rate is still rapidly increasing: Chile, Peru, and Belarus.
All the maps below remain unchanged, and the graphs now include the new Big 10 lineup with Chile, Peru, and Belarus. And also, now that I’m changing up the countries I follow, this is a good time to review some other countries we had followed previously.
Cases and deaths worldwide
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 5,776,934
Total deaths: 360,089
The trend of worldwide cases continues to be ahead of the predictions that I made on May 17th, and the trend of worldwide deaths continues to go a bit short of my predictions.
All the analyses below use case and death rates per million people, which allows us to compare countries by how deeply the disease has affected them. But it’s always good to remind ourselves of the real thing being plotted. Thus…
Total cases of COVID-19, cumulatively diagnosed from the beginning of the epidemic until today in each country, including the new ones:
and likewise, the total number of deaths in each country:
Cases per million people by country
Compare today’s map of cases per million to yesterday’s map, and you’ll see why I dropped Spain, Belgium, and Italy in favor of Chile, Peru, and Belarus – three countries where the case rate continues to increase rapidly.
Today is day 73, an odd-numbered day, so here is a graph of cases per million people from February 14th to today. You can watch COVID-19 move around the world in real time simply by reading the graph left to right. I have recycled colors onto the new countries: Chile is copper, Peru is green, and Belarus is black. Belarus literally means “White Russia” SEE WHAT DID THERE?
The very, very good news is that it looks like the line for the U.S. is finally, slowly starting to flatten from its constant growth rate, indicating that the worst of this phase of the epidemic might finally be beginning to pass us by. We won’t know for sure for another two weeks.
Why do I say “this phase” of the epidemic? Take a look at the lines for Chile, Peru, and Brazil, all of which are tragically doing the exact opposite of flattening. Those three countries are in the Southern Hemisphere, where it is now approaching midwinter. The same thing might happen to us Global Yankees when winter comes around here.
Of course, the good news that course is not inevitable. As we revisit countries that we have previously tracked (including Italy, Belgium, and Spain), look for another prominent Southern Hemisphere country:
Australia (the gray line between South Korea and Slovenia) remains just as flat as it has for the past two months. Curves for all the countries shown in the graph above seem to have remained flat – except Iran, where cases are increasing again. I’ll continue to keep a close eye on them, and if cases continue to increase I’ll add them back into our regularly tracked countries.
Deaths per million people by country
Here’s the map of deaths per million people by country:
and here is the graph – it looks a bit lonely without the high death rate in Belgium at the top, but it’s important to use the same vertical scale here as the color scale in the map:
Happy news: here too, it appears that the curve for the U.S. is beginning to flatten. But likewise, we won’t know for sure for another two weeks or so. Also, note how closely Brazil (orange) and Peru (green) line up. They could continue to track together for a long time, or not. Remember how closely cases in the U.S. and Italy tracked together, before the U.S. sprinted ahead.
Lastly, following up on the death rates in some of the countries we have tracked before:
If you want to try any of this analysis for yourself, you can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (version 3.3). I’d love to see what you can build with it, and I’m happy to help you figure it out!
Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.