Daily COVID-19 data update LXXIII, Big 10 realignment edition

Graphs day 73, pandemic day 79, day 150 since the first cases were diagnosed. Cases and deaths per million in Spain, Belgium, and Italy have been stable for a long time, so I have done what would have been unthinkable just two months ago: stopped tracking cases and deaths in those countries.

A Brazilian soccer player (left) and a University of Michigan football player (right)
Brazil, like Michigan, is second place in the Big Ten #iceburn

I’ve been referring to the countries I track as the “Big 10,” so today it’s time to change up the members of that club. I’m dropping Spain, Belgium, and Italy, and adding three countries where the case rate is still rapidly increasing: Chile, Peru, and Belarus.

All the maps below remain unchanged, and the graphs now include the new Big 10 lineup with Chile, Peru, and Belarus. And also, now that I’m changing up the countries I follow, this is a good time to review some other countries we had followed previously.

Cases and deaths worldwide

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 5,776,934

Total deaths: 360,089

Plot of total COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide since the beginning of 2020

The trend of worldwide cases continues to be ahead of the predictions that I made on May 17th, and the trend of worldwide deaths continues to go a bit short of my predictions.

All the analyses below use case and death rates per million people, which allows us to compare countries by how deeply the disease has affected them. But it’s always good to remind ourselves of the real thing being plotted. Thus…

Total cases of COVID-19, cumulatively diagnosed from the beginning of the epidemic until today in each country, including the new ones:

Cases of COVID-19 since February 14, 2020 in each of 10 countries

and likewise, the total number of deaths in each country:

Deaths due to COVID-19 since February 14, 2020 in each of 10 countries

Cases per million people by country

Compare today’s map of cases per million to yesterday’s map, and you’ll see why I dropped Spain, Belgium, and Italy in favor of Chile, Peru, and Belarus – three countries where the case rate continues to increase rapidly.

Maps of cases per million people in Europe (left) and the Americas (right), with values for key countries labeled

Today is day 73, an odd-numbered day, so here is a graph of cases per million people from February 14th to today. You can watch COVID-19 move around the world in real time simply by reading the graph left to right. I have recycled colors onto the new countries: Chile is copper, Peru is green, and Belarus is black. Belarus literally means “White Russia” SEE WHAT DID THERE?

Cases per million people per day in each of 10 countries

The very, very good news is that it looks like the line for the U.S. is finally, slowly starting to flatten from its constant growth rate, indicating that the worst of this phase of the epidemic might finally be beginning to pass us by. We won’t know for sure for another two weeks.

Why do I say “this phase” of the epidemic? Take a look at the lines for Chile, Peru, and Brazil, all of which are tragically doing the exact opposite of flattening. Those three countries are in the Southern Hemisphere, where it is now approaching midwinter. The same thing might happen to us Global Yankees when winter comes around here.

Of course, the good news that course is not inevitable. As we revisit countries that we have previously tracked (including Italy, Belgium, and Spain), look for another prominent Southern Hemisphere country:

Cases per million people in some of the countries we tracked previously

Australia (the gray line between South Korea and Slovenia) remains just as flat as it has for the past two months. Curves for all the countries shown in the graph above seem to have remained flat – except Iran, where cases are increasing again. I’ll continue to keep a close eye on them, and if cases continue to increase I’ll add them back into our regularly tracked countries.

Deaths per million people by country

Here’s the map of deaths per million people by country:

Maps of deaths per million people in Europe (left) and the Americas (right), with values for key countries labeled

and here is the graph – it looks a bit lonely without the high death rate in Belgium at the top, but it’s important to use the same vertical scale here as the color scale in the map:

Deaths per million people in each of 10 countries

Happy news: here too, it appears that the curve for the U.S. is beginning to flatten. But likewise, we won’t know for sure for another two weeks or so. Also, note how closely Brazil (orange) and Peru (green) line up. They could continue to track together for a long time, or not. Remember how closely cases in the U.S. and Italy tracked together, before the U.S. sprinted ahead.

Lastly, following up on the death rates in some of the countries we have tracked before:

Deaths per million people in some other countries

If you want to try any of this analysis for yourself, you can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (version 3.3). I’d love to see what you can build with it, and I’m happy to help you figure it out!

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.

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