Category: Uncategorized

Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday.

It gives us all a chance to reflect on what we are thankful for. I have so many things to be grateful for, including this blog, and you the reader. And I’m grateful for the skills I have developed in data science.

I love the idea that there is truth hidden in plain sight, if only we have the patience to look for it.

And now we have two fun data science problems to work on. First, we are near the end of the vote counting for the 118^th U.S. House of Representatives. Just three seats remain! Republicans now hold a 220-212 edge – enough for majority control, but far short of their expectations.

And here is the visualization:

Results we have learned since last time:

California-3: Republican state assembly member Kevin Kiley

California-22: Republican incumbent David Valadao

California-34: Democratic incumbent Jimmy Gomez

California-47: Democratic incumbent Katie Porter

Still undecided:

Alaska at large: the entire state

California-13: Merced and surrounding areas

Colorado-3: Pueblo, Grand Junction, and the rural western third of the state

And I now have a Data Challenge from a random person on the Internet. He claims that there was no excess mortality in Europe in 2020, but there has been excess mortality in 2022. (Excess mortality is defined as the number of annual deaths above the baseline for the previous several years.) Since there was a global pandemic in 2020 that has abated by 2022, that seems crazy – but I can test the idea myself. I’m now getting the data from the European Mortality Monitoring program (EuroMOMO) of the European Centers for Disease Control.

I’ll let you know what I find.

Thanks for reading, and here’s to many more years of gratitude!

Three more seats decided, one to Republicans and two to Democrats. Republicans now hold a 218-210 edge, enough for a majority of seats. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA-20) will be House Majority Leader.

Updated map – as always, click for a larger view:

Results we now know:

California-27: Republican incumbent Mike Garcia

California-49: Democratic incumbent Mike Levin

Maine-2: Democratic incumbent Jared Golden

Still undecided:

Alaska at large: the entire state

California-3: the rural Sierra Nevada mountains and the northeastern suburbs of Sacramento, including Roseville

California-13: Merced and surrounding areas

California-22: The eastern half of Bakersfield and rural areas to the north

California-34: The eastern part of the city of Los Angeles

California-47: Long Beach and coastal Orange County

Colorado-3: Pueblo, Grand Junction, and the rural western third of the state

It will likely be a few days until the last seven races are decided – all are close enough that it will matter which voters follow up to “cure” ballots they cast on Election Day that were later ruled invalid.

What does the new Republican majority mean? Obviously, they will be able to pass legislation with a simple majority vote. As is always true even in the most divisive times, most of this legislation will be uncontroversial and will be quickly passed by the Senate and signed into law by President Biden. Obviously some will be controversial.

But the smaller the majority, the harder it will be to pass controversial legislation. Just as Democratic senators have had to convince Joe Manchin (D-WV) to vote with the party, Republican representatives will need to convince moderates who won in close elections – from places like Binghamton, New York (Brandon Williams, R-NY-22) and Scottsdale, Arizona (Juan Ciscomani, R-AZ-6). Banning gay marriage and endlessly investigating Hunter Biden might be popular in traditional Republican strongholds in the deep south, but will it play in Peoria (Darin LaHood, R-IL-16)?

It’s tempting to say “Republicans always follow the party line,” but historically that hasn’t always been the case, especially in the House. Ultimately this is an empirical question, and we will begin to know the answer in less than two months.

Updates as we have them.

Four more seats decided, all to Democrats. Republicans now hold a 217-208 edge, meaning they are still just one seat away from claiming a majority. Don’t get your hopes up (or down), Republicans are leading in enough remaining seats that they will definitely get at least one more.

Updated map – as always, click for a larger view:

Results we now know:

California-6: Democratic incumbent Ami Bera

California-9: Democratic incumbent Josh Harder (write your own “that’s what she said” joke in the comments)

California-21: Democratic incumbent Jim Costa

Colorado-8: Democratic state assembly member Yadira Caraveo

Still undecided:

Alaska at large: the entire state

California-3: the rural Sierra Nevada mountains and the northeastern suburbs of Sacramento, including Roseville

California-13: Merced and surrounding areas

California-22: The eastern half of Bakersfield and rural areas to the north

California-27: Northern Los Angeles County, including Lancaster, Palmdale, Glendora, and Pasadena

California-34: The eastern part of the city of Los Angeles

California-47: Long Beach and coastal Orange County

California-49: Oceanside and San Juan Capistrano

Colorado-3: Pueblo, Grand Junction, and the rural western third of the state

Maine-2: Mostly-rural northern and eastern Maine

When will we know the full composition of the House? What will the final party count be? No idea!

The mission of these posts is not to speculate, the mission is to provide up-to-date, accurate, beautiful maps. Stay tuned for updates.

Six more seats of the House of Representatives for the incoming 118th United States Congress have been decided. Republicans now hold a 217-204 edge, meaning they are just one seat away from claiming a majority. But the opposition party always does well in the first midterm election after a new President. Combined with the five seats that Republican state legislatures c̶h̶e̶a̶t̶e̶d̶ gerrymandered, the fact that we’re even still talking about “Democrats might theoretically get a majority” shows what a disappointing night it was for Republicans.

Updated map – as always, click for a larger view:

Results we now know:

Arizona-1: Republican incumbent David Schweikert

Arizona-6: Republican Juan Ciscomani

California-41: Republican incumbent Ken Calvert

California-45: Republican incumbent Michelle Steel

New York-22: Republican Brandon Williams

Oregon-6: Democratic Andrea Salinas

Still undecided:

Alaska at large: the entire state

California-3: the rural Sierra Nevada mountains and the northeastern suburbs of Sacramento, including Roseville

California-6: the northern half of the city of Sacramento, and parts of Arden-Arcade and Rancho Cordova

California-9: Stockton and surrounding areas of San Joaquin County

California-13: Merced and surrounding areas

California-21: Fresno and the southern San Joaquin Valley

California-22: The eastern half of Bakersfield and rural areas to the north

California-27: Northern Los Angeles County, including Lancaster, Palmdale, Glendora, and Pasadena

California-34: The eastern part of the city of Los Angeles

California-47: Long Beach and coastal Orange County

California-49: Oceanside and San Juan Capistrano

Colorado-3: Pueblo, Grand Junction, and the rural western third of the state

Colorado-8: Northeast of Denver

Maine-2: Mostly-rural northern and eastern Maine

As results are announced in these 14 districts, I’ll update the non-misleading map accordingly.