Category: Uncategorized

Graphs day 26, pandemic day 32, day 103 since the first cases were diagnosed. COVID-19 has reached two more countries: São Tomé and Principe, and Yemen. More than 1.7 million people have been diagnosed and more than 100,000 have died.

Usual graphs ahoy!

Most likely Belgium will have passed Italy in total number of cases by tomorrow.

The same countries by days since the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000:

And again, the U.S. tracks closely with Italy.

By popular request, this graph shows the number of deaths in each country. Belgium continues to worry me.

And when looking at deaths by days elapsed (same scale as in the case graph above), the U.S. continues to track Switzerland.

I underestimated the amount of by-hand finagling necessary to create these graphs in Excel. I’m extremely proud of the work I’ve done in Excel, because it’s a program familiar to and easily available for literally billions of people. But I think it’s time for a new approach. Stay tuned tomrorow.

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 25, pandemic day 31, day 102 since the first cases were diagnosed. We’ve hit another sad milestone in today’s dataset – more than 100,000 deaths worldwide due to COVID-19.

Here is our usual graph of the number of cases per million people in various countries, with the line thickness representing the case fatality rate in that country. The first graph shows the number of cases in each country by calendar day, the second shows by the number of days after the case rate reached 1 per 1,000,000 (thus putting all countries on the same timescale).

The United States has firmly passed France in terms of cases per capita, and Belgium is very close to passing Italy.

The same countries by days since the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000:

It continues to amaze me how closely the history of cases in the U.S. follows the history in Italy.

By popular request, this graph shows the number of deaths in each country. Belgium worries me.

And when looking at deaths by days elapsed (same scale as in the case graph above), it’s amazing how closely the U.S. tracks with Switzerland.

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

UPDATED with the correct version of the cases by day elapsed graph!

Graphs day 24, pandemic day 30, day 101 since the first cases were diagnosed. Sadly I’ve had to rescale the graph of total cases on Earth – we have passed 1,500,000.

Here is our usual graph of the number of cases per million people in various countries, with the line thickness representing the case fatality rate in that country. The first graph shows the number of cases in each country by calendar day, the second shows by the number of days after the case rate reached 1 per 1,000,000 (thus putting all countries on the same timescale).

And here are the same graphs but for deaths per million people (line thicknesses are all the same):

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 23, pandemic day 29, day 100 since the first cases were diagnosed. Nearly 1.5 million people worldwide have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and nearly 90,000 have died. Sadly, as the number of cases worldwide closes in on 1.5 million, we are close to another graph scale reset.

Here is our usual graph of the number of cases, with the line thickness representing the case fatality rate in that country. The case rate in the United States has now passed that in France.

Several people asked for the return of the graph of deaths by country. Here you go – in this graph, all lines have the same thickness:

As we had predicted would happen, the per capita deaths in Spain have exceeded those in Italy. Notice also how the line for Switzerland is so low and the line for France is so high.

Tomorrow I’ll make a plot of deaths by country with equivalent starting points, like I did for the plot of cases. Stay tuned.

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 22, pandemic day 28, day 99 since the first cases were diagnosed. More than 1.3 million people worldwide have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and more than 80,000 have died. Our usual graphs are below. The rate of new cases and deaths continues to increase roughly linearly.

The bad news is that I have had to rescale the countries graph again – Spain now has an diagnosed case rate higher than 3,000 cases per million. The good news is that in Switzerland and Italy, it appears that the rate of new cases is finally starting to slow down.

Once again – everything we are doing is working. Keep doing it!

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.