Day thirteen of me graphing data, day nineteen of the pandemic (as declared by the World Health Organization), day ninety since the first cases were reported in Wuhan. Worldwide as of 5:45 AM ET this morning, more than 700,000 people have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and more than 33,000 have died.
Yesterday I posted graphs of the total number of cases and deaths worldwide. Today the number of cases and deaths continues on the same trend as before. On the level of national data, I am continuing to track the number of cases and deaths in China, the United States, Iran, Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, the United Kingdom, and Australia. The graphs below show cases and deaths per million people in each country. As always, suggestions on how to improve the graphs are welcome.
Cases per million people
Spain has taken the lead over Italy as the country with the most cases of COVID-19 per million people, with 1,673 cases per million versus 1,622 per million in Italy. Belgium has moved into third place with 940 cases per million people. And the growth rate in the U.S. (blue dotted line) continues to increase.
Deaths per million people
Italy still leads the world in per-capita deaths, with 179 deaths per million people. Belgium has overtaken France as well.
You can find the data from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data site (download the CSV file from the “Full dataset” link). And here is my Excel template.
Update tomorrow, and every day until this pandemic is over.
Just because all sports have been cancelled due to our impending doom doesn’t mean that we have to give up sports.
This year’s biggest surprise is the East Tennessee State Buccaneers, who made the Final Four as a number seven seed in the East.
For the past three weeks, I’ve been simulating the NCAA college basketball tournament, which would have been happening right now all over the country. On Sunday, March 15th, I announced the 68 teams that would play for the national championship of college basketball.
Over the last three weeks, we’ve seen some exciting games, buzzer beaters, and shocking upsets. From 68 teams, we are down to four. The Final Four teams are: East Tennessee State, Creighton, Duke, and Oregon.
Here is the bracket leading in to the Final Four:
The bracket so far, from the play-in games to the Final Four
Final Four Schedule
The schedule of Final Four games is:
Saturday April 4th
Monday April 6th
4:07 PM: ETSU vs. Creighton 8:07 PM: Duke vs. Oregon
8:07 PM: NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Who will win it all? PLEASE GOD NOT THESE GUYS AGAIN!
As always, results will be posted in real time (what would have been real time) on my Twitter feed at @fixthemadness. But there’s no reason we have to go without imaginary basketball between now and Saturday! I will also be simulating two other postseason tournaments: the National Invitational Tournament (NIT) and the College Basketball Invitational (CBI).
Here are the bracket and schedules for these two tournaments, starting with the NIT.
NIT Bracket and First Round Schedule
Monday March 30th
Noon ET: (3) Rhode Island vs. (6) Tennessee (East) 1 PM ET: (4) Syracuse vs. (5) Yale (East) 2 PM ET: (1) Alabama vs. (8) Prairie View A&M (South) 3 PM ET: (3) UConn vs. (6) South Carolina (Midwest) 4 PM ET: (2) Oklahoma vs. (7) Eastern Washington (West) 5 PM ET: (4) St. John’s vs. (5) Akron (Midwest) 6 PM ET: (3) North Texas vs. (6) SMU (South) 7 PM ET: (4) Texas vs. (5) Oregon State (South) 8 PM ET: (4) Memphis vs. (5) Oklahoma State (South) 9 PM ET: (1) Indiana vs. (8) Radford (East) 10 PM ET: (2) NC State vs. (7) Colgate (East) 11 PM ET: (3) Purdue vs. (6) Washington (West)
Tuesday March 31st
Midnight ET: (2) Minnesota vs. (7) Davidson (Midwest) 1 AM ET: (1) Northern Iowa vs. (8) Arkansas-Little Rock (Midwest) 2 AM ET: (2) Arizona State vs. (7) Virginia Commonwealth (South) 3 AM ET: (1) Stanford vs. (8) Wright State (West) 8:40 PM: (12) USC vs. (12) Mississippi State (East regional play-in game, Dayton)
CBI Bracket and Schedule
The CBI is low-budget, here’s the bracket handwritten on a sheet of scratch paper:
Tuesday March 31st
4 AM ET: (7) UNC Greensboro vs. (10) Utah 5 AM ET: (3) Furman vs. (14) Kansas State 6 AM ET: (5) Tulsa vs. (12) Georgia 7 AM ET: (6) Clemson vs. (11) Duquesne 8 AM ET: (2) Xavier vs. (15) Loyola-Chicago 9 AM ET: (8) DePaul vs. (9) Missouri 10 AM ET: (4) Georgetown vs. (13) Virginia Tech 11 AM ET: (1) North Carolina vs. (16) Northern Colorado
Twenty-four straight hours of college basketball starts right now!
Over the last twelve days, I have been tracking the number of cases and deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic across various countries. I will continue to do that as long as it is useful. But this morning I asked a question – what’s the graph that I haven’t made yet?
More important than the data for individual countries is the data for the world as a whole. We are all passengers together on Spaceship Earth. So how does it look for us so far?
Day twelve of me graphing data, day eighteen of the pandemic (as declared by the World Health Organization), day eighty-nine since the first cases were reported in Wuhan. Worldwide as of 5:30 AM ET this morning, more than 650,000 people have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and more than 30,000 have died. For comparison, that is nearly 10 times the number that died in the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
I am continuing to track the number of cases and deaths in China, the United States, Iran, Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, the United Kingdom, and Australia. As always, the graphs below show cases and deaths per million people in each country.
I have redone the graphs, so they are not directly comparable with the ones I’ve made before, but they show the same countries with the same lines. I also set the horizontal axis (date) to always show the current date on the far right, so that you can tell by just looking at the graph what day it comes from.
Hopefully the graphs are more readable today as well. Click on them to open a larger version in a new tab. Suggestions welcome!
Cases per million people
Countries are shown on the same color scale as before, but I have rescaled the graph. The highest case rate in the world is Italy’s at 1,535 per million (80,539 cases in about 60,000,000 Italians).
The vertical axis scale (cases per million people) in my graph now extends to 3,000, so there is now some room for the graph to grow into. But since the doubling time of cases is about 3 days, this room is likely to only last about 3 days, and then I’ll have to rescale again.
That’s what doubling time means – in three days, as many people will have caught COVID-19 as have ever caught it since it began at the seafood market in Wuhan.
Looking at patterns in individual countries, the number of reported cases in Spain continues to grow at a frightening rate. The cases per million people in Spain has not quite passed the cases per million in Italy (which was my prediction yesterday), but it’s damn close, and Spain will certainly take over the top spot tomorrow. The rate seems to have slowed down in Australia, but the same caveats apply.
It looks like the rate has started to increase again in Iran, but that could be due to better testing and reporting, and it could be random chance. Let’s keep a close eye in Iran over the next few days.
Deaths per million people
Sigh, I rescaled the graph yet again, and I hope the new rescaling will last three days before I have to do it yet again (remember, three day doubling time, and it might be even faster). The death rate is now 166 per million in Italy and 121 per million in Spain.
Per capita death rate has some lag behind per capita case rate – the time it takes patients to get sick and die.
My goal in doing this it to help you realize that you can make these kinds of graphs yourself. Links that will help you do that are in the postscript.
I’ll leave you with a question:
What important graph have I not yet shown you?
I’ll answer this, and show you the graph, later today.
Postscript: Data Resources
You can find the data from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data site (download the CSV file from the “Full dataset” link).
I have revised my Excel template make the graphs above, plus the secret one I’m working on. It should also be easier to add new data each day, although it still takes several manual steps. Here is the new template.
Update tomorrow, and every day until this pandemic is over.
Day eleven of me graphing data, day seveteen of the pandemic (as declared by the World Health Organization), day eighty-eight since the first cases were reported in Wuhan. Worldwide as of 4 AM ET this morning, nearly 600,000 people have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and more than 27,000 have died.
I am continuing to track the number of cases and deaths in China, the United States, Iran, Italy, Spain, France, Belgium, the United Kingdom, and Australia. As always, the graphs below show cases and deaths per million people in each country.
Cases per million people
The number of reported cases in Spain continues to grow at a frightening rate. By the time you read this, Spain’s per capita disease rate will almost certainly have passed Italy’s.
Spain’s curve is about a week later than Italy’s, so their per million deaths will almost certainly pass Italy’s as well. The growth of cases in the United States is beginning to to enter the scary part of the curve. Meanwhile in Australia…
…cases might have flattened out, but we won’t know for sure for a few days.
Deaths per million people
Sigh, I rescaled the graph yet again, the total death rate in Italy is now 152 deaths per million Italians (the green line in the graph below). The death rate is Spain is increasing quickly.
You can find the data from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data site (download the CSV file from the “Full dataset” lin), and you are welcome to use my Microsoft Excel template. I’m working on some new graphs for future updates, you should too!
Update tomorrow, and every day until this pandemic is over.
