Daily COVID-19 data update I

Every day, the World Health Organization (WHO) publishes a daily update of the number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide, and the number of deaths.

And starting today, every day I’ll be posting a graph of the data. We’ll be able to see, in real time, as the disease spreads and kills. I won’t try to interpret these graphs right now – I want to learn a little more about how to understand what they mean. I’m presenting them entirely for your information.

Here is the number of cases by country (excluding China), each day for the last month (February 17 – March 17). The inset graph shows all cases in 2020 and includes China.

This is terrifying. Stay safe, everybody.

Here is a link to my Excel template for making that figure, if you would like to play with the data yourself. And please do – I’d love to see what you come up with!

Update tomorrow, and every day until WHO declares the pandemic over.

The Imaginary NCAA tournament imaginary schedule

The best three weeks in sports are gone.

Because of the COVID-19 global pandemic, the entire 2020 NCAA men’s basketball tournament has been cancelled. This is the right decision to slow down the spread of this highly dangerous disease, but college basketball fans will always wonder what might have been. Since we can’t have March Madness in reality, let’s go ahead with it in our imaginations.

I’ll be simulating the entire NCAA tournament using the college basketball game simulator on whatifsports.com. The fun starts tonight at 6:40 PM with the first play-in game, and continues through the championship game on April 6.

Who will pull off this year’s big first-round upset? Who will be the Cinderella team that makes a deep run late into the tournament? And who will win it all?

Here is the schedule – let’s find out!

Tuesday March 17th

6:40 PM: (16) Jackson State vs. (16) Robert Morris (East regional play-in game in Dayton, Ohio)
8:40 PM: (11) Iowa vs. (11) St. Louis (East regional play-in game, Dayton)

Wednesday March 18th

6:40 PM: (16) North Carolina Central vs. (16) Princeton (West regional play-in game, Dayton)
8:40 PM: (12) USC vs. (12) Mississippi State (East regional play-in game, Dayton)

Thursday March 19th

Noon: (6) Butler vs. (11) Florida (West regional from Albany, New York)
12:30 PM: (5) LSU vs. (12) Stephen F. Austin (South regional from Tampa, Florida)
1:20 PM: (7) Houston vs. (10) Arkansas (West regional from St. Louis, Missouri)
1:50 PM: (4) Oregon vs. (13) New Mexico State (West regional from Spokane, Washington)
2:30 PM: (6) Texas Tech vs. (11) Iowa / St. Louis winner (East, Albany)
3:00 PM: (7) East Tennessee State vs. (10) Wichita State (East, Tampa)
3:50 PM: (2) Michigan State vs. (15) South Alabama (South, St. Louis)
4:20 PM: (1) Gonzaga vs. (16) NCCU / Princeton winner (West, Spokane)
6:45 PM: (3) Baylor vs. (14) North Dakota State (West, Albany)
7:00 PM: (4) Villanova vs. (13) Vermont (South, Tampa)
7:15 PM: (2) Creighton vs. (15) Northern Kentucky (Midwest, St. Louis)
7:15 PM: (5) Wisconsin vs. (12) Liberty (West, Spokane)
9:15 PM: (3) West Virginia vs. (14) Toledo (East, Albany)
9:30 PM: (2) Louisville vs. (15) Winthrop (East, Tampa)
9:45 PM: (7) Utah State vs. (10) Notre Dame (South, St. Louis)
9:55 PM: (8) UCLA vs (9) Providence (West, Spokane)

Friday, March 20th

Noon: (3) Florida State vs. (14) Hofstra (Midwest regional from Greensboro, North Carolina)
12:30 PM: (6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Rutgers (South regional from Cleveland, Ohio)
1:20 PM: (1) Duke vs. (16) Portland State (South regional from Omaha, Nebraska)
1:50 PM: (2) San Diego State vs. (15) UC Irvine (West regional from Sacramento, California)
2:30 PM: (4) Maryland vs. (13) Bradley (East, Greensboro)
3:00 PM: (8) Illinois vs. (9) Richmond (East, Cleveland)
3:50 PM: (8) Michigan vs. (9) Auburn (Midwest, Omaha)
4:20 PM: (5) Ohio State vs. (12) Louisiana Tech (Midwest, Sacramento)
6:45 PM: (6) Kentucky vs. (11) Colorado (Midwest, Greensboro)
7:00 PM: (3) BYU vs. (14) Siena (South, Cleveland)
7:15 PM: (8) Marquette vs. (9) Virginia (South, Omaha)
7:15 PM: (7) St. Mary’s of California vs. (10) Penn State (West, Sacramento)
9:15 PM: (5) Seton hall vs. (12) USC / Mississippi State winner (East, Greensboro)
9:30 PM: (1) Dayton vs. (16) Jackson State / Robert Morris winner (East, Cleveland)
9:45 PM: (1) Kansas vs. (16) Boston University (Midwest, Omaha)
9:55 PM: (4) Arizona vs. (13) Belmont (Midwest, Sacramento)

I’ll update the games as they would have happened on my Twitter feed at @fixthemadness. Here’s the bracket to follow along as we go. Let the fun begin!

NCAA tournament bracket

March Madness 2020

Welcome – even you, Duke fans!*

Welcome to everyone who has been following my crazy experiment on Twitter to simulate the 2020 NCAA men’s basketball tournament, lost to the COVID-19 pandemic. The image below shows the Selection Sunday bracket (click for a larger version), and you can read the full bracket as a list at the bottom of the page.

I’ll be simulating the games, one at a time, and announcing the results on Twitter at @fixthemadness. The first game starts at 7 PM on Tuesday (March 17th). Happy madness! And stay safe, everybody, COVID-19 is a serious threat.

*Kidding, I have nothing against Duke

The 2020 NCAA Men’s Basketball Simulated Tournament

The First Four in Dayton:
East #16: Jackson St. vs Robert Morris
West #16: UNC Central vs Princeton
East #11: Iowa vs St. Louis
East #12: USC vs Mississippi State

EAST REGIONAL (New York)
Games in Cleveland:
(1) Dayton vs (16) Jackson St/Robert Morris
(8) Illinois vs (9) Richmond
Games in Greensboro:
(5) Seton Hall vs (12) USC/Mississippi State
(4) Maryland vs (13) Bradley
Games in Albany:
(6) Texas Tech vs (11) Iowa/St. Louis
(3) West Virginia vs (14) Toledo
Games in Tampa:
(7) East Tennessee State vs (10) Wichita State
(2) Louisville vs (15) Winthrop

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis)
Games in Omaha:
(1) Kansas vs (16) Boston University
(8) Michigan vs (9) Auburn
Games in Sacramento:
(5) Ohio State vs (12) Louisiana Tech
(4) Arizona vs (13) Belmont
Games in Greensboro:
(6) Kentucky vs (11) Colorado
(3) Florida State vs (14) Hofstra
Games in St. Louis:
(7) Houston vs (10) Arkansas
(2) Creighton vs (15) Northern Kentucky

WEST REGIONAL (Los Angeles)
Games in Spokane:
(1) Gonzaga vs (16) UNC Central/Princeton
(8) UCLA vs (9) Providence
Games in Spokane:
(5) Wisconsin vs (12) Liberty
(4) Oregon vs (13) New Mexico State
Games in Albany:
(6) Butler vs (11) Florida
(3) Baylor vs (14) North Dakota State
Games in Sacramento:
(7) St. Mary’s of California vs (10) Penn State
(2) San Diego State vs (15) UC Irvine

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston)
Games in Omaha:
(1) Duke vs (16) Portland State
(8) Marquette vs (9) Virginia
Games in Tampa:
(5) LSU vs (12) Stephen F Austin
(4) Villanova vs (13) Vermont
Games in Cleveland:
(6) Cincinnati vs (11) Rutgers
(3) BYU vs (14) Siena
Games in St. Louis:
(7) Utah State vs (10) Notre Dame
(2) Michigan State vs (15) South Alabama