Daily COVID-19 data update XIX

Graphs day 19, pandemic day 25, day 96 since the first cases were diagnosed. COVID-19 has now reached even the distant Falkland Islands. The worldwide graph just keeps increasing, and now more than 64,000 people have died.

Comparing rates in different countries

The good news comes from the graph of case rates in different countries. It wasn’t clear before, but today we can definitely see that the case rate is decreasing in France, Belgium, and even Spain.

And we can maybe see the same downturn happening in the United Kingdom and the United States. Maybe. If it’s there, it’s a little clearer in the graph with equivalent starting points:

Cases, deaths, and country populations come from the datasets of the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data site (download the CSV file at “all four metrics”), and I hope you find my Excel template useful for creating your own graphs.

Hopefully more good news tomorrow, and hopefully every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Daily COVID-19 data update XVIII

Grapheration day 18, pandemic day 24, day 95 since Wuhan. COVID-19 has now reached even the distant Falkland Islands. Nearly 1.1 million people have been diagnosed, and more than 56,000 have died. The graph of worldwide cases and deaths keeps screaming on ahead.

Comparing rates in different countries

Once more unto the graph, dear friends, once more – cases of coronavirus over time in various countries from February 22nd to today. Same color scheme, and once again line thickness represents the case fatality rate in different countries, from Italy (12 percent) to Australia (0.4 percent). Except now, France has replaced Germany as the purple line.

Several people have asked what the graph would look like if we evened out the countries, and plotted them all with the same starting event. There are various choices for the starting event to plot, I chose the date on which the case rate reached one case in one million. Here’s what it looks like:

Usual disclaimers: I’m not an expert, I’m just a guy on the Internet who likes to make graphs of things. I hope I’ve shown you some ways you can look into COVID-19 data for yourself. You can find the data from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data site (download the CSV file from the “Full dataset” link), and you are welcome to use my Excel template.

Update tomorrow, and every day until this pandemic is over.

Daily COVID-19 data update XVII or one million or whatever

Grapheration day 17, pandemic day 23, day 94 since Wuhan. Yesterday we had our one millionth case of COVID-19, and that milestone shows up in today’s data update. Six countries experienced their first deaths from COVID-19 yesterday, including Kyrgyzstan, Mauritania, and Gibraltar. The disease has now killed over 50,000 people.

So far I’ve been presenting cases and deaths on two separate graphs, meaning you have had to look back and forth between two graphs to get the full story.

Well, sadly enough people have now died that you can now clearly see the story when they are graphed on the same axis.

The case fatality rate of COVID-19 worldwide is about 5 percent, meaning that approximately five out of every one hundred cases ends in death. For comparison, seasonal flu has a case fatality rate of less than 0.1 percent, and even smallpox’s was about one percent.

Comparing rates in different countries

That leads in to the other big disadvantage of showing cases and deaths in two separate graphs. Looking back and forth across two similar-looking graphs obscures an important part of the story: for a variety of reasons, different countries have different case fatality rates.

But we’re graphing several countries at once – if we tried to put cases and deaths as separate lines, the graph would quickly get very hard to read. So how can we show all these factors together on one graph?

I think I figured out an approach, and I’m interested in hearing your thoughts on this approach and whether you have any other ideas. I’ll plot cases only, but use the thickness of the line to represent the case fatality rate in each country. Now that the line thicknesses represent meaningful data, I had to make them all solid lines. Hopefully the line labels let you identify which country is which. To keep the total number of lines down, I removed France (sorry Greg). Also, Spain is now gold and Switzerland is now orange because reasons. And so:

I’m working on a few other visualizations as well.

Usual disclaimers: I’m not an expert, I’m just a guy on the Internet who likes to make graphs of things. I hope I’ve shown you some ways you can look into COVID-19 data for yourself. You can find the data from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data site (download the CSV file from the “Full dataset” link). I have once again updated my Excel template (to adjust the line thicknesses), please use it.

Update tomorrow, and every day until this pandemic is over.

Daily COVID-19 data update XVI

Graphs day 16, pandemic day 22, day 93 since Wuhan.

COVID-19 has now reached 203 separate countries and territories, now including the Caribbean island of St. Barthélemy. More than 900,000 people have been diagnosed, and more than 46,000 have died.

In fact, since the dataset I am using is updated only once a day, at about 5 AM ET, we have already passed the 1,000,000 case threshold. It will show up in my data tomorrow, rather than Saturday as I had predicted. I’m not sure whether this means that the pace of the disease’s spread is increasing, or simply that my very very simple models are not good enough to make solid predictions. I’m not too worried about this – I hope that my contribution to the discussion can be to show you that you have the tools and knowledge at your disposal to see the data for yourself.

Cases in individual countries

Today’s graph of per capita cases and deaths by country continues yesterday’s, with the same countries represented by the same color scheme and labels.

It appears that the rate of new cases has indeed decreased for Belgium, although not to the extent it had last week in Italy. The rate is also slowing in Germany and France, while it keeps on speeding ahead in Spain and the United States. I’m a bit mystified by the difference between Belgium and Spain – the two countries enacted similar quarantine policies at similar times, so why are the patterns so different? Any ideas?

Case fatality rates continue to vary between countries, primarily due to differences in population structure. Because COVID-19 is so much more fatal to people above age 60 than it is to younger people, countries with larger percentages of older people have higher death rates.

I am playing with some new data sources and some new visualization methods, so stay tuned for updates soon!

Usual disclaimers: I’m not an expert, I’m just a guy on the Internet who likes to make graphs of things. I hope I’ve shown you some ways you can look into COVID-19 data for yourself. You can find the data from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data site (download the CSV file from the “Full dataset” link). I have updated my Excel template to add the line labels automatically (although they still take some manual formatting to look right).

Update tomorrow, and every day until this pandemic is over.

Imaginary CBI championship tonight!

8:07 PM ET: Furman (25-7) at North Carolina (16-19)

Watch it live on @fixthemadness!

Also happening today: the NIT regional finals! Winners go to Madison Square Garden in New York City for the NIT Final Four!

Noon ET: (2) NC State vs. (8) Radford (East)
1 PM ET: (2) Minnesota vs. (5) Akron (Midwest)
2 PM ET: (2) Arizona State vs. (5) Oklahoma State (South)
3 PM ET: (1) Stanford vs. (3) Purdue (West)

Here is the bracket for the CBI, showing the championship game matchup:

and here is the NIT bracket, one step remaining until the Final Four at the Garden!

Good luck to all the teams playing today!

Watch it all happen live at @fixthemadness!

Daily COVID-19 data update XV, no fooling

How I wish this were an April Fool’s Day post. Instead, it’s day damn 15 of graphs, day 21 of the pandemic, and day 92 since the first case reports. It’s never good when I have to rescale the graph, and I did today with the global case count. The scale used to go to up to 900,000 (thicker line), now it goes up to 1,500,000.

Current global count: 850,000 cases and 41,000 deaths. When will the world see its one millionth case of COVID-19? My projections say this Saturday.

Cases in individual countries

New graphs and new countries today. I’ve removed China and Iran and added in their place Switzerland and Germany. They have inherited the other countries’ colors (Switzerland is red and Germany is purple) – but I made the lines dashed to remind you they are not China and Iran. Why those countries? See below.

As always, this is cases of COVID-19 per million people. Thanks to my anonymous friend who suggested I add data labels (you know who you are!). I’m not sure how well it works, let me know how I can improve the look of the graph.

Note how Switzerland’s cases per capita were below Italy and above Spain for most of March, but the order has now reversed. The rate of case growth has slowed greatly in Italy, slowed somewhat in Spain, and slowed almost not at all in Spain.

For the second day in a row, the rate of case growth has slowed in Belgium. The only countries where the the rate does not appear to have slowed are Spain, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

Deaths in individual countries

And here is a graph of deaths per million people. Same countries, same colors, same data labels, same deal.

Note that, even though Germany and Switzerland have as many cases as the other countries in the case graphs, they have fewer deaths. The case fatality rates in Germany and Switzerland are both quite low.

As always, I’m not an expert, I’m just a guy on the Internet who likes to make graphs of things. I hope I’ve shown you some ways you can look into COVID-19 data for yourself. You can find the data from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data site (download the CSV file from the “Full dataset” link), and you are welcome to use my Excel template.

Update tomorrow, and every day until this pandemic is over.