100 Days of COVID-19 Graphs (Daily COVID-19 data update C)

Graphs day 100. Sigh.

Pandemic day 107, day 177 since the first cases were diagnosed. Update of the global and national data today, plus an interesting update on Chile. Tomorrow, a deeper look at U.S. state data.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 9,400,295

Total deaths: 482,468

Worldwide cases and deaths

Daily reported cases worldwide, showing that after all this time, we are still seeing more and more cases every day:

Cases of COVID-19 reported each day worldwide. The blue line is the actual reported number of cases; the red line is the smoothed number of cases (10-day moving average smoothing), showing the overall trend. Click for a larger version.

…and cumulative deaths worldwide (because the dead stay dead), increasing slowly than before but still well on pace to reach half a million next Tuesday:

Cumulative deaths from COVID-19 since the beginning of the epidemic (click for a larger version)

The global case fatality rate now stands at 5.1 percent.

Cases and deaths by country

Here are are three of our four usual categories – in the counties where COVID-19 was quickly contained, it is still contained.

Countries where COVID-19 is now under control

I’ve added back some countries we had followed in the past – Germany (pink), Ireland (orange), and Slovenia (brown), all firmly Under Control.

Countries where COVID-19 is currently under control (click for a larger version)

I was worried about what looked like an uptick in cases in France and Germany, but the numbers are back down to their previous levels today.

Countries that are headed in the right direction(-ish)

Countries where newly-reported cases per million people are steady or decreasing (click for a larger version)

Cases in Sweden, Saudi Arabia, and Peru are at almost exactly the same level as one another today.

Countries where the epidemic is getting worse

Most of these countries are still getting worse, but take a look at Chile:

Countries where the epidemic is still getting worse (click for a larger version)

What’s going on there? Remember that we’re not looking at cases directly; we’re looking at cases that have been smoothed by 10-day average smoothing. This means that each day’s value is replaced with the average value for the day, plus the five days before and the five days after.

On June 18th, Chile caught up on its case counting and reported 36,179 cases in one day. That explains the jump-and-fall in the cases per capita shown above.

Those 36,179 cases were all real cases, but it’s not that that many people suddenly fell sick on June 18th. The pattern is even clearer when you look at the observed cases for Chile and the smoothed cases on the same graph:

Observed and 10-day smoothed cases in Chile (click for a larger version)

And that maybe gives us some hope for Chile. For now, despite the fall in daily reported cases, Chile still counts as “getting worse.” But if the curve begins to trend down, then in a few days we might be able to say that Chile is moving in the right direction.

Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make the country graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You can get the U.S. state data from the Corona Data Scraper site; choose today’s data as CSV.

If it would help you to start from my Excel templates, please use them! The county data and analysis is in my national-level data template (now version 4.2). Data and analysis for U.S. states is in my new state-level template (version 1.0).

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.

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