Daily COVID-19 data update XCVIII: Nine million cases

Graphs day 98, pandemic day 105, day 175 since the first cases were diagnosed. Today let’s do a quick update of national-level data. That look will reveal two countries that have switched from getting worse to headed in the right direction. At least for now – the situation could change at any time. Sadly, there are other countries ready to take their place on the getting worse graph.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 9,063,264

Total deaths: 471,681

Earth has arrived at nine million cases worldwide:

Cases of COVID-19 reported each day worldwide. The blue line is the actual reported number of cases; the red line is the smoothed number of cases (10-day moving average smoothing), showing the overall trend. Click for a larger version.

…but the good news is that the death rate seems to be slowing down as COVID-19 leaves Europe and moves into countries with younger age distributions:

Cumulative deaths from COVID-19 since the beginning of the epidemic (click for a larger version)

The global case fatality rate has dropped from 5.9 percent to 5.2 percent since March.

Cases and deaths by country

Here are are our four usual categories, some of which have new members. Graphs show cases per million, labels show deaths per million (dpm).

Countries where COVID-19 was quickly contained

Countries where COVID-19 case rates were never high (click for a larger version)

I’ve heard rumors of a second wave of cases in China (red), but I don’t see anything in the graph that makes me worry. Japan (purple) had a second wave in April, but thanks to decisive action by the Japanese government and people, it passed quickly.

Countries where COVID-19 is now under control

Countries where COVID-19 is currently under control (click for a larger version)

Notice that unfortunately one country is gone from this graph – the epidemic has gotten worse again in Serbia. Also, if you’re wondering where Germany is, the curve for Germany is nearly identical to the curve for France.

Countries that are headed in the right direction(-ish)

Welcome to this graph, Sweden (pink) and Saudi Arabia (orange)!

Countries where newly-reported cases per million people are steady or decreasing (click for a larger version)

Sweden and Saudi Arabia have both been on the list of countries getting worse for the past few weeks. Their curves have flattened enough that we can consider these countries headed in the right direction.

They are particularly interesting because both have flattened from their second wave of cases. Sweden’s first peak was in late April; Saudi Arabia’s was in mid-May. They are now hopefully at the top of their second wave of cases, and cases will decrease from here.

Countries where the epidemic is getting worse

Sweden and Saudi Arabia are no longer getting worse; Serbia is back to getting worse. Also getting worse: South Africa. All of Africa, really, but South Africa has about 1/3 of the cases in the continent. Serbia is pink in the graph below, South Africa is black.

Countries where the epidemic is still getting worse (click for a larger version)

Cases in Chile are still skyrocketing, with no sign of when they might peak.

Tomorrow: graphing cases in U.S. states.

Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make the country graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You can get the U.S. state data from the Corona Data Scraper site; choose today’s data as CSV.

If it would help you to start from my Excel templates, please use them! The county data and analysis is in my national-level data template (now version 4.2). Data and analysis for U.S. states is in my new state-level template (version 1.0).

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.

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