Graphs day 93, pandemic day 100, day 170 since the first cases were diagnosed.
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 8,317,573
Total deaths: 450,630
I’ll start with the biggest “oh shi-” news:
There are more than 36,000 new cases reported today in Chile.
Obviously that doesn’t mean 36,000 people suddenly got sick today; there’s some catching up of previously unreported cases in that number. But it’s big enough to have a noticeable effect on today’s worldwide case numbers, requiring another damn rescaling:
Cases of COVID-19 reported each day worldwide. The blue line is the actual reported number of cases; the red line is the smoothed number of cases (10-day moving average smoothing), showing the overall trend. Click for a larger version.
And as you’ll see below, the latest increase pushes Chile’s numbers to truly stratospheric, Qatar-esque levels. Both Chile and Qatar are so far above the other countries in their categories (Getting Worse and Headed in the Right Direction, respectively) that I had to make inset graphs for both of them.
Here’s the map of cases per million people in various countries in Europe and South America – look at the bright shining yellow that is Chile:
Map of deaths per million people in various countries in Europe and the Americas. Click for a larger version.
And here are the graphs of the history of the epidemic, divided into our four usual categories. I rescaled the main graphs to have a maximum of 200 cases per million per day, and the inset graphs to a maximum of 700 cases per million per day. Even that may not prove to be enough for Chile.
Also new on the Getting Worse graph, I’m following two new countries: Mexico and Panama. As before, line thickness and label size represent the case fatality rate in each country, and the labels give deaths per million people (dpm).
Countries where COVID-19 was quickly contained
These countries acted so quickly and decisively that they never had many COVID-19 cases or deaths.
Countries that quickly contained their COVID-19 epidemics (click for a larger version)
Countries where COVID-19 is currently under control
These countries experienced severe COVID-19 epidemics that killed many people, but they have all now brought the number of cases down close to zero.
Countries that experienced high rates of COVID-19, but have since brought the epidemic under control (click for a larger version)
Countries where cases are headed in the right direction-ish
The same countries in this category as yesterday, with a new 0-200 scale on the main graph and 0-700 on the Qatarific inset.
Countries where newly-reported cases per million people are steady or decreasing (click for a larger version)
The dead flat curve in Russia still sorries me, but the other countries all seem to be headed the right way.
Countries where the epidemic is getting worse
The graph now includes Mexico (green) and Panama (purple). Sadly, cases in the U.S. continue to grow. More sadly, Chile has now zoomed off the scale completely into the inset graph. Look at the curve for Chile.
Countries where the epidemic is still getting worse (click for a larger version)
Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You’re still welcome to use my Excel template – I added a section for making the deaths graph to what is now verison 4.1, so that is the only one you need.
Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.
Graphs day 92, pandemic day 98, day 169 since the first cases were diagnosed.
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 8,142,129
Total deaths: 443,488
It’s Wednesday in the usual Monday-Wednesday-Friday schedule, so it’s a longer post today. I’ll look at COVID-19 cases and deaths in our usual four categories of countries, based on the current progress of their local COVID-19 epidemic. Unfortunately, two large countries have traded places.
I’ll also show a new way of visualizing deaths on the same plot as cases. I’d love to know what you think of this new strategy. Leave a comment or let me know on le social media.
Worldwide cases
Plotting the number of new cases reported each day results in a curve that goes up and down as the pandemic waxes and wanes. Here’s what that type of graph looks like for the entire world over the entire history of the pandemic:
Cases of COVID-19 reported each day worldwide. The blue line is the actual reported number of cases; the red line is the smoothed number of cases (10-day moving average smoothing), showing the overall trend. Click for a larger version.
Throughout April, the curve held steady, and it looked like the pandemic was hitting its peak and headed toward a decline. Sadly, in May and June the number of daily cases has increased again. The pandemic is likely to get worse before it gets better.
Worldwide deaths
I’ll present some other ways of showing deaths by country later on in this post, but first let’s remind ourselves of what deaths look like worldwide. As mentioned above, 443,488 people have died of COVID-19. More than three-quarters of the worldwide deaths have come in just nine countries: the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Italy, France, Spain, Mexico, India, and Belgium. Cumulative total deaths per day for those nine countries are shown in this graph:
Total deaths from COVID-19 by day in the 9 countries that together make up more than 75% of deaths (click for a larger version)
A flat line in this graph means a country where daily deaths have fallen to near zero. Deaths have gone close to zero in all of continental Europe; and while deaths are still increasing in the U.K., they are increasing at a much slower rate than just a few months ago.
Unfortunately, in all the non-European countries on the graph, deaths continue to grow at a disturbing rate.
Converting total deaths to per-capita numbers and showing them on a map for the entire world:
Map of deaths per million people worldwide. Click for a larger version.
and lastly, embiggening that map to focus on the regions with the highest per-capita death rate, Europe and the Americas:
Map of deaths per million people in various countries in Europe and the Americas. Click for a larger version.
Cases and deaths per million people by country
For a while now, I’ve been looking for a way to include information about deaths on the same graph as information about cases. This has become harder now that I’m still presenting deaths as a total (cumulative) amount of dead people, while now showing cases as daily reports.
But I think I have figured out a way to show both kinds of information on the same graph. Take a look below and let me know what you think.
I’ll show four separate graphs, corresponding to each of the categories of current epidemic state that we’ve been using so far. In all the graphs below, I have changed the way I do the data labels – the label now gives the name of the country along with the number of deaths per million people there (abbreviated dpm).
As before, the line thickness represents the case fatality rate (CFR) – the percentage of people who have ever been diagnosed with COVID-19 who have since died from COVID-19 (which varies from 0.1% in Qatar to nearly 19% in France). What’s new is that the size of the data label also indicates case fatality rate. Larger labels mean countries where COVID-19 is more likely to kill.
On to the graphs, sorted by the current state of the COVID-19 epidemic!
Countries where COVID-19 was quickly contained
Countries that quickly contained their COVID-19 epidemics (click for a larger version)
Thanks to taking swift and decisive action to combat the pandemic, China, South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand never had many COVID-19 cases or deaths to begin with. Note that the case fatality rates in South Korea and Australia were particularly low.
Countries where COVID-19 is currently under control
These countries experienced severe COVID-19 epidemics that killed many people, but they have all now brought the number of cases down close to zero.
Countries that experienced high rates of COVID-19, but have since brought the epidemic under control (click for a larger version)
Notice that the case fatality rate is fairly high in Belgium, France, and Italy – and fairly low in Switzerland and Serbia. In all these places, cases peaked between late March and mid-April. Last week I was worried that cases in Belgium might be rising again, but the good news is that cases there have been falling again.
Countries where cases are steady or decreasing
Several countries haven’t gotten their epidemics under control, but they seem to be headed in the right direction – daily cases are steady or decreasing. Peru is back on this list. Notice who’s gone?
Countries where newly-reported cases per million people are steady or decreasing (click for a larger version)
Note that the inset graph has a different scale, going up to 700 cases per million people. That larger scale is needed to show Qatar, which has far more cases than other countries. The case fatality rate in the U.K. is quite a lot higher than the other countries on this list.
I haven’t shown you the curve for the U.S. yet – and tragically, there is only one category left.
Countries where the epidemic is getting worse
I really, really, really wish I didn’t have to say this, but: cases in the United States have increased each of the last three days. And so, sadly, the U.S. moves into the “getting worse” category, joining Chile, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, and India.
Countries where the epidemic is still getting worse (click for a larger version)
Sweden has by far the highest case fatality rate on this list.
Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You’re still welcome to use my Excel template – I added a section for making the deaths graph to what is now verison 4.1, so that is the only one you need.
Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.
I love Australian rules football, and the Australian Football League just signed a broadcast deal with ESPN that will bring unprecedented exposure to the sport in the U.S. and worldwide.
And instead of talking about either of those things, here I am giving you another damn update about this damn global pandemic.
Graphs day 89, pandemic day 94, day 165 since the first cases were diagnosed.
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 7,759,691
Total deaths: 430,127
Here is the usual graph of cases reported worldwide each day. The blue line is actual number of cases, the red line is a smoothed average.
Cases reported worldwide by day (click for a larger version)
Clearly we still haven’t hit the peak of cases worldwide, and it’s likely to be a long slow slog until we do.
Cases per million people by country
Here is a map of today’s cumulative cases per million people (since the beginning of the epidemic):
Cases in Chile are continuing to skyrocket; soon I’ll need to rescale the map once again.
Countries headed in the right direction
Countries where reported COVID-19 cases per million people are steady or decreasing (click for a larger version)
Great news from this graph today – cases per million people in the U.K. are almost down to the level of Belgium, a country where the epidemic is clearly under control. And Belarus, where the curve looked like it might be flat, is definitely decreasing. Curves for the U.S. and Russia continue to be flat as a delicious American pancake. This might require a new category in my next update.
Countries getting worse
Countries where COVID-19 cases per million people are still increasing (click for a larger version)
Although cases in Chile decreased today, cases are often down on weekends. I think Chile is still getting worse. The curves for Saudi Arabia and Sweden now overlap completely, at least for today..
Deaths per million people by country
Here’s the map of deaths per million people, focused on Europe and the Americas:
and the curves of cumulative deaths over time in our usual ten countries:
Deaths per million people in various countries (click for a larger version)
After a long period of very few deaths in Chile, deaths are now increasing rapidly.
Coming up tomorrow: it’s a Monday on the usual Monday-Wednesday-Friday schedule, so look for a longer post. It’ll still be about COVID-19. It’s always about COVID-19 these days.
Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You’re still welcome to use my Excel template – I added a section for making the deaths graph to what is now version 4.1, so that is the only one you need.
Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end. Then months and months of just flags.
NCAA Cup results
And, just for fun at the end of this post, an update on the ongoing NCAA Cup.
Graphs day 88, pandemic day 93, day 164 since the first cases were diagnosed.
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 7,625,883
Total deaths: 425,931
However, as not-fun as it is, the COVID-19 show goes on, and as long as there is still an officially-designated global pandemic, I’ll keep making these maps and graphs. Here’s the plot of daily cases worldwide:
Cases reported worldwide per day (click for a larger version)
Total cases are headed in the wrong direction. Smoothed cases look like they could be headed in the wrong direction too. We should know more tomorrow.
Cases per million people by country
Here is a map of today’s cumulative cases per million people (since the beginning of the epidemic):
Map of Europe and the Americas showing the cumulative case rates for selected countries
COVID-19 continues to be under control in the places where it was previously under control, so I’ll only show the graphs from countries where it is headed in the right direction or getting worse.
Countries headed in the right direction
Countries where reported COVID-19 cases per million people are steady or decreasing (click for a larger version)
Cases in the U.K. are looking really good. In another few days, I might be able to move them to the “under control” category. Belarus is also clearly headed in the right direction. I’m still worried about Russia and the United States, but at least they’re not getting worse.
Countries getting worse
Countries where COVID-19 cases per million people are still increasing (click for a larger version)
Cases per million people in Chile, Peru, and Saudi Arabia are increasing. Cases in Brazil are decreasing, but honestly I suspect it has more to do with Brazil intentionally underreporting cases than any true decrease in cases. When a country tells you they are going to underreport cases, believe them.
Deaths per million people by country
Here’s the map of deaths per million people, focused on Europe and the Americas:
Map of deaths per million people in selected countries in Europe and the Americas (click for a larger version)
and the curves of cumulative deaths over time in our usual ten countries:
Deaths per million people in various countries (click for a larger version)
Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You’re still welcome to use my Excel template – I added a section for making the deaths graph to what is now verison 4.1, so that is the only one you need.
Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.
Graphs day 87, pandemic day 92, day 163 since the first cases were diagnosed.
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 7,481,063
Total deaths: 421,190
What’s more fun than COVID-19? Well, just about everything, but I was thinking specifically of March Madness, the championship tournament of college basketball in the United States. And if you think March Madness is fun, you will love the NCAA Cup, a championship tournament that I just made up.
Everybody qualifies, all matchups are random, and winners advance. Read about it in the post I wrote earlier today, see the scores in real time at my Twitter feed (@fixthemadness), and read the full results on my NCAA Cup page (in progress).
However, as not-fun as it is, the COVID-19 show goes on, and as long as there is still an officially-designated global pandemic, I’ll keep making these maps and graphs. Here’s the plot of daily cases worldwide:
Cases per million people by country
Here is a map of today’s cumulative cases per million people (since the beginning of the epidemic):
COVID-19 continues to be under control in the places where it was previously under control, so I’ll only show the graphs from countries where it is headed in the right direction or getting worse.
Countries headed in the right direction
I was worried about the U.S., Russia, and Belarus, but it looks like cases there have decreased slightly.
Countries getting worse
Chile is getting so much worse that I had to rescale the graph, increasing the vertical axis to 300 cases per million people per day. And I have still have no idea what’s going on with Sweden.
Deaths per million people by country
Here’s the map of deaths per million people, focused on Europe and the Americas:
and the curves of cumulative deaths over time in our usual ten countries:
Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You’re still welcome to use my Excel template – I added a section for making the deaths graph to what is now verison 4.1, so that is the only one you need.
Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.
