Daily COVID-19 data update XCIII: Hot Chile

Graphs day 93, pandemic day 100, day 170 since the first cases were diagnosed.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 8,317,573

Total deaths: 450,630

I’ll start with the biggest “oh shi-” news:

There are more than 36,000 new cases reported today in Chile.

Obviously that doesn’t mean 36,000 people suddenly got sick today; there’s some catching up of previously unreported cases in that number. But it’s big enough to have a noticeable effect on today’s worldwide case numbers, requiring another damn rescaling:

Cases of COVID-19 reported each day worldwide. The blue line is the actual reported number of cases; the red line is the smoothed number of cases (10-day moving average smoothing), showing the overall trend. Click for a larger version.

And as you’ll see below, the latest increase pushes Chile’s numbers to truly stratospheric, Qatar-esque levels. Both Chile and Qatar are so far above the other countries in their categories (Getting Worse and Headed in the Right Direction, respectively) that I had to make inset graphs for both of them.

Here’s the map of cases per million people in various countries in Europe and South America – look at the bright shining yellow that is Chile:

Map of deaths per million people in various countries in Europe and the Americas. Click for a larger version.

And here are the graphs of the history of the epidemic, divided into our four usual categories. I rescaled the main graphs to have a maximum of 200 cases per million per day, and the inset graphs to a maximum of 700 cases per million per day. Even that may not prove to be enough for Chile.

Also new on the Getting Worse graph, I’m following two new countries: Mexico and Panama. As before, line thickness and label size represent the case fatality rate in each country, and the labels give deaths per million people (dpm).

Countries where COVID-19 was quickly contained

These countries acted so quickly and decisively that they never had many COVID-19 cases or deaths.

Countries that quickly contained their COVID-19 epidemics (click for a larger version)

Countries where COVID-19 is currently under control

These countries experienced severe COVID-19 epidemics that killed many people, but they have all now brought the number of cases down close to zero.

Countries that experienced high rates of COVID-19, but have since brought the epidemic under control (click for a larger version)

Countries where cases are headed in the right direction-ish

The same countries in this category as yesterday, with a new 0-200 scale on the main graph and 0-700 on the Qatarific inset.

Countries where newly-reported cases per million people are steady or decreasing (click for a larger version)

The dead flat curve in Russia still sorries me, but the other countries all seem to be headed the right way.

Countries where the epidemic is getting worse

The graph now includes Mexico (green) and Panama (purple). Sadly, cases in the U.S. continue to grow. More sadly, Chile has now zoomed off the scale completely into the inset graph. Look at the curve for Chile.

Countries where the epidemic is still getting worse (click for a larger version)

Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You’re still welcome to use my Excel template – I added a section for making the deaths graph to what is now verison 4.1, so that is the only one you need.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.

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