Jolly good news! (Daily COVID-19 data update CX)

Four Cape Verdean-American teenagers riding on the back of a truck waving American and Cape Verdean flags. Cape Verde's flag is blue with thin white-red-white stripes about 2/3 of the way down, and a circle of 10 yellow stars representing the 10 islands.
Viva Cabo Verde!
A street parade celebrating Cape Verdean independence, July 5, 2019 in New Bedford, Connecticut
(photo credit: South Coast Today)

Graphs day 110, pandemic day 117, day 187 since the first cases were diagnosed.

Yesterday was U.S. Independence Day, so I showed you an update of U.S. cases. Today is Independence Day in both Algeria and Cape Verde, so we’re back to the global data, and I’ll include those two countries, just for today. Never forget that other people love their countries just like you love yours.

And never forget that people are dying of COVID-19 all over the world.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 11,267,309

Total deaths: 530,754

Worldwide cases and deaths

The number of daily cases (blue line below) continues to go up in a jagged curve. Smoothing the curve to remove the day-to-day variations (with a 10-day moving average smoothing) shows the general upward trend. Four months into the global pandemic, and things are still going to get worse before they get better.

Cases of COVID-19 reported each day worldwide. The blue line is the actual reported number of cases; the red line is the smoothed number of cases (10-day moving average smoothing), showing the overall trend. Click for a larger version.

We are still on pace to hit 600,000 deaths worldwide in about two weeks. The global case fatality rate is at about 4.7 percent.

Cases and deaths by country

Two countries have changed categories today – and both in the right direction! Another appears to be on track to changing in the wrong direction. Algeria and Cape Verde are temporary additions, and I’ve temporarily removed India.

India continues its mercifully slow upward trend. Considering India’s high population density, it could be so, so much worse. Whatever the Indian government and people are doing to slow the spread, it’s working. Be like India.

Countries where COVID-19 was quickly contained

Usual graph style for all today’s graphs: each country is color-coded and labeled, labels include total deaths per million people from the beginning, label sizes and line thicknesses represent the case fatality rate.

Countries that quickly contained their COVID-19 epidemics (click for a larger version)
Captain Picard does an unprecendented two-handed facepalm
Captain Picard hears about the cause of the new outbreak in Australia

Sadly, look at Australia. A new outbreak has begun in the most Australian manner possible: travelers to Australia were being held in quarantine at a Melbourne hotel, and the security guards enforcing the quarantine were having sex with the quarantined guests.

That might be funny, but only if no one dies in this new outbreak. I’m going to say that if Australia reaches 6.8 cases per million people (half their peak rate from late March), I’ll move them to the “getting worse” category, but sadly it’s likely a matter of when, not if.

Countries where COVID-19 is now under control

Now that the case rate in the United Kingdom has fallen to 5.5 cases per million, the UK gets to move into the under control category.

Countries where COVID-19 is currently under control (click for a larger version)

As they say there: jolly good news!

Countries that are headed in the right direction(-ish)

More good news here: not only has Chile moved into the “moving in the right direction” category, they have also un-Qatared themselves back on to the main graph, with fewer than 200 new cases per million Chileans.

Countries where newly-reported cases per million people are steady or decreasing (click for a larger version)

As they say there, so fast that I would find even other Spanish speakers would find it incomprehensible: ¡Gracias a Diós, que siga!

Countries where the epidemic is getting worse

The usual countries are still here, and today also birthday countries Algeria and Cape Verde. Tomorrow is Independence Day in Comoros and Malawi.

Countries where the epidemic is still getting worse (click for a larger version)

Cases are increasing quickly in the USA, South Africa, and Serbia. And Brazil is about to go off the chart. As they say there, f*da-se Bolsonaro!

Lastly, as I say here on this blog:

Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make the country graphs from Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) COVID-19 data site. Click on csse_covid_19_data, then on csse_covid_19_time_series, then download all the CSV files. Or clone the whole repository from GitHub.

You are welcome and encouraged to use my Excel templates. I’ve tinkered enough that I’m plus-plusing the version to 5.1. I have two separate templates: a global data template and a U.S. state data template.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end or I lose my mind or ABIN finds this blog.

Leave a Reply