President-Elect Joseph R. Biden (Photo by ANGELA WEISS / AFP)
2:05 PM ET: Congratulations to Joe Biden on being elected the 46th President of the United States!
I know that many of us wished the decision could have been announced much sooner, but I am glad we took the time to make sure we got it right. In a Democracy, the people choose their leaders according to established rules , no exceptions.
Now that we know who the President is, I can finally share some insights into the 2020 U.S. federal elections.
3:23 PM ET: On Election Night, it appeared that Trump had opened a big lead, and that Biden slowly cut into the lead in multiple states before being declared the winner this morning. That is completely false.
In reality, the difference is solely due to the fact that it takes some time to count ballots. For example, the earliest projections on Tuesday night had Trump leading the vote in Rhode Island, causing me to literally shout “WTFRI” at my TV. But when it was finallly announced that Biden won 59 percent of votes in Rhode Island, it was because Biden had ALWAYS won 59 percent of votes in Rhode Island. Every one of those votes was cast on or before Election Day.
3:50 PM ET: When I looked at the preliminary map on Wednesday morning, and it looked like the entire race came down to a few thousand votes in Nevada, I was scared. My biggest fear was that a close election would lead to a long and rancorous legal battle that would make Bush v Gore look like a pillow fight, and that Trump would refuse to leave. And the difference is that in 2000, I had faith that the Supreme Court was a nonpartisan body that could make a decision in the best interests of the country. In 2020, I no longer believe that.
Fortunately it also comes down to Pennsylvania and maybe Georgia
Fortunately, Biden also won Pennsylvania, was confirmed by a wider margin in Arizona, and seems more likely than not to also win Georgia. Those are important because it means that Trump’s lawyers would have to come up with four separate strategies for challenging the election, one for each state. When Trump realizes how much work that will be, he will do what he always does: give up.
I’m not even going to address the content of Trump’s accusations of voter fraud. There is absolutely no evidence of any large-scale irregularities in any election in any state anywhere. I will say that of the people I know who supported Trump, most have graciously accepted the result and have encouraged Trump to do the same. Unfortunately some have not, and their reasoning seems to be “Trump lost, so the election could not possibly have been fair.” I heard the same from a very small number of Clinton supporters in 2016, and they were wrong also. Both-sides-ism is stupid, but I am willing to say “both sides are wrong” on those occasions when both sides actually were wrong.
5:53 PM ET: Of course, the Presidential election wasn’t the only game in town on and after Tuesday, and for the Congressional elections, Republicans have reason to be pleased. With four Senate seats yet to be decided, Republicans have lost two (Colorado and Arizona) and gained one (Alabama). Votes are still being counted in North Carolina and Alaska, but the Republican incumbents are nearly certain to win there. That leaves the Senate evenly split at 48-48, with two seats in Georgia remaining. Because of course they do, Georgia has a bizarre system where if no one receives more than 50% of the vote, the top two candidates go to a runoff election on January 5, 2021.
If Democratic candidates David Ossoff and Raphael Warnock win those runoffs, they would become the two U.S. Senators from Georgia, the Senate would be evenly split 50-50, and the Democratic Party would control the Senate thanks to a tiebreaking vote from Vice President Kamala Harris. That is… unlikely.
In the House of Representatives, the news for the Democratic Party is both better and worse. With votes still being counted for 26 seats, the current distribution is Democratic 214, Republican 195. The good news is that they will almost certainly maintain their majority. The bad news is that they massively underperformed expectations. They were expected to gain about 5 seats; instead it looks like they will likely lose about 5 seats.
Even with a fairly decisive electoral and popular vote win for President-Elect Biden, the losses in Congress will make it difficult for the Democratic Party to claim a legislative mandate. And the dream of expanding the Supreme Court is most certainly dead.
Check back here throughout the day, and beyond, for thoughts.
So far I’ve brought you several forecasts of the 2020 U.S. Presidential election (the most recent), and a forecast for the nail-bitingly-close Senate election, which I predict will messily resolve into the thinnest possible margin for a Democratic majority. Now the House elections, which I predict will result in a slight Democratic gain.
This was originally going to be a single post, then a 3-part series. So, welcome to my 4-part series of 2020 House election predictions!
Today, previews of close races – those where I predict the vote will finish within 5 percentage points – in the alphabetical first half of states, from Alaska to Minnesota, then skipping over the “New” states directly to North Carolina because apparently I cannot into alphabet.
The National Map
Below is my forecast map for what the entire House will look like when the 117th U.S. Congress opens on January 3, 2021 (for comparison, here’s what the map looks like now). See the guide below for what each part of the figure means, and definitely click on it for a version you can actually read.
My too-small-to-read prediction of what the U.S. House of Representatives will look like after next month’s election. Click for a version you can actually read.
How to read the map (skip if you know it already)
As is traditional yet completely arbitrary, Republican representatives are shown by red hexagons and Democratic representatives are shown by blue hexagons. The text labels show the names of the incoming representative; plain text means that I predict the incumbent will be re-elected, bold means that I predict a new representative will be elected from the same party, and bold all-caps means that I predict a party switch. A larger font size and a single asterisk(*) mean the election is likely to be close, within about 5%. An even larger font size and double asterisk(**) mean the election is likely to be very close, maybe within 2%.
Preview of close races (New Jersey to Texas)
In my Senate prediction, I offered at least a passing comment on each of the 35 races. With 435 House races, I’m obviously not going to do that, but I have looked at them all to get a sense of which will be most exciting.
Here they are, starting with the close races marked with a single asterisk (*) in the map above.
House races likely to vote within 5 percent (52%-47% or closer)
New Jersey 7
This district covers several of the rural and exurban communities of northwestern New Jersey. With a median household income of $104,000 per year, it is the richest congressional district on the close races list, and fifth-richest in the country. In 2018, Democratic challenger Tom Mailnowski upset five-term Congressman Leonard Lance. He is running for re-election against State Senator Tom Kean. There have been no polls in this district since March 11th, when dinosaurs roamed the Earth. So who knows. But incumbent + slight Democratic lean to the district + probably a good year for the Democratic Party overall =
Prediction: Malinowski re-elected
New Mexico 2
New Mexico, like the Mongols, is the exception. It’s a western state, mostly rural, with only one metro that feels like it’s bigger than it really is – the Albuquerque metro area has a smaller population than those of Fresno, California or Greenville, South Carolina. And yet, because of its significant Mexican-American and Native American populations, it tends to vote Democratic in national elections, enough that it has moved completely out of swing state territory.
New Mexico’s second district encompasses the southern half of the state, plus a gerrymandered tentacle (gerrycle?) reaching up to crack Kirkland Air Force base in half.
In 2018, longtime Republican representative Steve Pearce (not that one) stepped down to run unsuccessfully for Governor or New Mexico, and Democratic candidate Xochtil (pronounced SHOCK-til) Torres Small won an extremely close election against Republican Yvette Herrell – so close that it appeared Herrell had won on election night, but Torres Small pulled ahead once all the votes were counted. The same two face off again this time, with Torres Small as the incumbent. Polling is once again extremely tight, with Torres Small leading by 3 in the average.
Prediction: Torres Small re-elected.
New York 11
New York has 27 House districts, 10 of which are entirely within New York City. One of those is the 11th, which includes all of Staten Island and some neighborhoods at the southern tip of Brooklyn; it is the only district in New York City that voted majority for Trump in 2016 (at 53%). It is currently represented for the Democratic Party by Max Rose. He is running for re-election against state assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis. Rose is ahead by 5 points in aggregate voting and is likely to win.
Prediction: Rose re-elected.
New York 22
This district runs north-south through the bridge of New York’s nose, between the Adirondacks and Lake Ontario. It includes the cities of Ithaca, Binghamton, Newburgh, and Poughkeepsie. In 2018, Anthony Brindisi won the seat back for the Democratic Party by defeating then-incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney. The same two face off again this time, with Brindisi 4 points ahead in aggregate polling.
Prediction: Brindisi re-elected.
Ohio 1
Ohio-1 is another gerrymanderiffic district looking like a pair of sexy nunchucks to crack apart Cincinnati. It has been represented by Republican Steve Chabot in 12 of the last 13 Congresses, missing only on term after losing in the blue wave of 2008 but getting voted back in in 2010. His opponent is Cincinnati public health worker Kate Schroeder. The race is tightening, but Chabot is up by 2.5 percentage points with two weeks left.
Prediction: Chabot re-elected.
South Carolina 1
This is another gerrymanderific district, centered on the city of Charleston, South Carolina. It includes the southern half of South Carolina’s coastline, plus one of those beefy arms for good measure. The district typically votes Republican in the Presidential election, by double-digit margins. But in 2018, the district elected its first Democratic representative by less than 4,000 votes. That representative is Joe Cunningham, and he is running for re-election for the first time against state representative Nancy Mace. Normally it would be an uphill battle for Cunningham in such a solidly Republican district, but Mace’s popularity is fading along with Trump’s, and Cunningham is now up by 3 in aggregate polling.
Prediction: Cunningham re-elected
Texas 7
In the 2020 House elections, the eyes of the world are on Texas. The first of five close races we’ll look at is Texas’s 7th congressional district, which covers the western suburbs of Houston. Democratic incumbent Lizzie Fletcher is running for re-election against real estate agent and former Army helicopter pilot Wesley Hunt. Fletcher led by 4 when I made the map, but her lead has extended to 5 since.
Prediction: Fletcher re-elected
Texas 21
I don’t even know how to describe the shape of this gerrymandered district. Evil Massachusetts? A snuffleupagus with a goatee smoking a pipe? Regardless, it exists for only one reason: to crack the cities of Austin and San Antonio by shoving as many of their voters as possible into a weird district, while also including enough rural area to the west so that rural voters will maintain a slight edge in numbers.
But I digress.
In 2018, 16-term Republican incumbent Lamar Smith retired, and Republican Chip Roy won the seat. His opponent this time is a hero of the Texas Democratic Party: Wendy Davis, whose 13-hour filibuster succeeded in stopping passage of a restrictive abortion bill (although it passed in the next legislative session). Roy is ahead by just under 4 points in aggregate polling.
Six-term incumbent Republican Pete Olson is retiring, opening the seat to a new occupant. The new occupant will be either Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls or foreign service officer and national security expert Sri Preston Kulkarini. The candidates’ signature issue issues are law enforcement and health care. Guess which is which!
Prediction: Nehls wins, holding the seat for the Republican Party
Texas 23
This district covers a vast rural area of western Texas, from the outskirts of San Antonio to the outskirts of El Paso. It takes 8 hours to drive from one end of the district to the other. The district is majority Mexican-American, but the inclusion of the highly conservative San Antonio suburbs, plus the cities of Midland and Odessa, makes for a hotly contested district. It is currently represented by Will Hurd, of the most moderate and bipartisan-willing Republicans in Congress. Presumably sick of the bullshit, Hurd surprised many by announcing he would not seek re-election, issuing what may be the most politely shade-throwing retirement statement of all time:
I’m leaving the House of Representatives to help our country in a different way… It was never my intention to stay in Congress forever, but I will stay involved in politics to grow a Republican Party that looks like America.
Prediction: Ortiz Jones is elected, switching the seat to the Democratic Party. And also becoming the first openly LGBT person elected to Congress from a southern state.
Party Switches
If you’re keeping score at home, we’ve had three party switches after the review of close races, with a net gain of +1 for the Republicans:
Continuing today my forecast for the 2020 U.S. elections, now just 15 days away!
Previously, I gave my Presidential election forecast (the most recent), a Senate forecast, and an overall House forecast. The House forecast was originally going to be a single post, then a 3-part series. So hey, welcome to my 4-part series of 2020 House election predictions!
Today: the first half of previews of close races.
The National Map
Below is my forecast map for what the entire House will look like w2hen the 117th U.S. Congress opens on January 3, 2021 (for comparison, here’s what the map looks like now). See the guide below for what each part of the figure means, and definitely click on it for a version you can actually read.
My too-small-to-read prediction of what the U.S. House of Representatives will look like after next month’s election. Click for a version you can actually read.
How to read the map (skip if you know it already)
As is traditional yet completely arbitrary, Republican representatives are shown by red hexagons and Democratic representatives are shown by blue hexagons. The text labels show the names of the incoming representative; plain text means that I predict the incumbent will be re-elected, bold means that I predict a new representative will be elected from the same party, and bold all-caps means that I predict a party switch. A larger font size and a single asterisk(*) mean the election is likely to be close, within about 5%. An even larger font size and double asterisk(**) mean the election is likely to be very close, maybe within 2%.
Preview of close races (Alaska to North Carolina)
In my Senate prediction, I offered at least a passing comment on each of the 35 races. With 435 House races, I’m obviously not going to do that here, but I have looked at them all to get a sense of which will be most exciting.
Here they are, starting with the close races (forecast to be within 5 percentage points, meaning a 52.5%-47.5% vote). These races are marked with a single asterisk (*) in the map above.
I’m running through previews alphabetically by state name, and today I preview states from Alaska through Minnesota. I am then skipping over all the “New” states directly to North Carolina, because apparently I cannot into alphabet.
Alaska at-large
Rep. Don Young (R-AK). Click to see what he actually looks like.
Republican Don Young has represented the district since 1973, and considering his long service it’s shocking that he’s in any race at all with challenger Alyse Galvin, an Anchorage-based education consultant and activist.
The race was within 5% when I made the map, but Young has pulled more than 6 points ahead in polling, so he is virtually certain to return for his 25th term in Congress.
Prediction: Young re-elected.
Arkansas-2
This district covers central Arkansas, including the state capital of Little Rock (aerial photo below). Like most districts containing urban centers, it is far more friendly to Democratic candidates than the rest of the state. Except it’s Arkansas, so it’s still not at all friendly to Democratic candidates.
Downtown Little Rock, the heart of Arkansas’s 4th congressional district
Republican third-term incumbent French Hill currently leads Joyce Elliot (who represents Little Rock in the State Senate) by 5 percentage points. The race is getting closer, but time is getting short.
Prediction: Hill re-elected.
Arizona-6
Dr. Hiral Tipirneni’s campaign logo. Did you know she is a doctor?
This district covers the northeastern suburbs of Phoenix, including the cities of Scottsdale and Paradise Valley.
Gil Cisneros (left) and Young Kim (right) – a picture label, not a political commentary
This district covers the foothills east of Los Angeles -parts of Los Angeles, Orange, and San Bernardino counties – including Yorba Linda, the hometown of Richard Nixon.
In 2018, a longtime Republican Congressman retired and Gil Cisneros sniped the seat for the Democratic party, narrowly winning the seat in a recount against state assemblywoman Young Kim. The same two are running again, and Cisneros currently leads by 5 points.
Prediction: Cisneros re-elected.
California-48
Candidate for CA-48 Michelle Steel (click to see what she actually looks like)
This district covers the coast of wealthy, traditionally Republican Orange County, from Huntington Beach to Laguna Beach. In 2018, Harley Rouda became the first Democratic representative in the district’s history. Rouda is running for re-election against Orange County Councilwoman and self-proclaimed “Tax Fighter,” the impressively-named Michelle Steel. Rouda is ahead by a bit under 3 points. I’m less sure about this one – but when the incumbent is ahead with less than a month left, go with the incumbent.
Prediction: Rouda re-elected.
Florida-26
The Tip of the Wang: Florida’s 26th Congressional District
This district covers the Tip of the Wang, from Homestead in southern Miami-Dade County to all of the Florida Keys. I’m amazed that in the ridiculously close President/Senate state of “It All Comes Down To” Florida, this is the only remotely close House race.
Like Alaska, this is a race that has separated even since I made my map, and Murcasel-Powell is virtually certain to win re-election.
Prediction: Murcasel-Powell re-elected.
Georgia-6
Former Rep. Karen Handel (R-GA-6). Click to see what she actually looks like.
This district includes the northern suburbs of Atlanta – and as always, as go the suburbs, so go the nation. In a 2017 special election, the district famously gave Democratic pundits hope when Jon Ossoff lost to Karen Handel by about 9,000 votes – thus demonstrating just how desperate for hope Democratic pundits were in 2017.
Illinois’s 13th Congressional District. Gerrymander? I ‘ardly know er!
This is a gerrymaderific district that mostly includes rural west-central Illinois, but has weird squid tentacles that include small parts of the state capital of Springfield and the college towns of Champaign and Bloomington because reasons.
The district hasn’t voted Democratic since ’92…….. 1892, that is. In 2018, Republican Rodney Davis won re-election against challenger Betsy Dirksen Londrigan by a ridiculously thin margin of 2,058 votes.
A third-party member of Congress (Justinus Amishii), a species hunted to extinction. Click to see what Justin Amash (L-MI-3) actually looks like.
This district includes the city of Grand Rapids and the surrounding area of central Michigan. Justin Amash was elected as a Republican in 2010, but ran afoul of President Trump and switched parties – first to Independent and then to Libertarian, becoming the first third-party representative in Congress since 1950. th
Understandably, Amash has had enough and is not running for re-election. The seat will either go back to the Republicans via Peter Meijer, heir to Michigan’s Meijer supermarket chain – or else will flip Democratic with immigration lawyer and education activist Hillary Scholten. Polling is absolutely all over the place, but the average has Meijer ahead by about 3 points.
Prediction: Meijer wins, capturing the seat for the Republican Party.
Minnesota-1
Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-MN-1). Click to see what he actually looks like.
This is a rural district that stretches across the whole southern border, and includes midsize cities like Mankato, Rochester, and Winona.
The district has traditionally leaned very, very slightly Democratic, but it currently represented by massively conservative, massively controversial Republican Jim Hagedorn. In 2018, Hagedorn defeated Democratic candidate Dan Feehan by just 1,311 votes. Feehan, an Iraq War veteran and former middle school math teacher, is running again. Some polls have Feehan ahead, but on average, Hagedorn leads by 4 points.
Prediction: Hagedorn re-elected.
Minnesota-7
Rep. Collin Peterson (D-MN-7; click to see what he actually looks like). Unlike Peterson, THIS JOKE WILL NEVER GET OLD!
This is another rural district, eh? It is the largest district by area Minnesota, covering the whole western side of the state except the far south, with the largest city being Moorhead. It’s the most conservative part of Minnesota, with a long history of Representatives with wonderfully Scandinavian names like Haldor Boen, Ole Juulson Kvale, and Odin Langen.
The district has been represented since 1990 by Collin Peterson, one of the founders of the Blue Dog Democratic Coalition. But thanks to the USA’s increasing partisanship and a strong candidate – Lieutenant Governor Michelle Fishbach – the Republicans seem poised to capture the seat from the 15-term incumbent. When I made the map, Fishbach was 4.5 points ahead when I made the map, but her lead has increased to six points.
Prediction: Fishbach captures the seat for the Republicans.
Montana at-large
Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-MT) Yes, I know Montana has moose, but YOU WERE EXPECTING IT THIS TIME, WEREN’T YOU?
This district represents the entire state of Montana, and it’s actually the largest district by population in the country. Incumbent Greg Gianforte is stepping down to run for Governor of Montana.
The Republican candidate is state auditor Matt Rosendale; the Democratic candidate is former state representative Kathleen Williams. Rosendale has led the entire way, but Williams has pulled within 5 points – not very close with so little time remaining.
Prediction: Rosendale wins, retaining the seat for the Republican Party.
North Carolina-8
YOU WERE NOT EXPECTING IT THIS TIME! Click to see what Richard Hudson (R-NC-8) actually looks like.
This district covers rural south-central North Carolina, including the midsize cities of Concord, Albemarle, and Pinehurst.
The district is currently represented by Republican Richard Hudson. He is running or a fifth term against Patricia Timmons-Goodson, an Associate Justice of the state Supreme Court. Polls are tightening, with Hudson currently holding a 3-point lead.
Prediction: Hudson wins re-election.
Party switches
If you’re keeping score at home (can’t tell the players apart without a program!), that’s two seats that I predict will switch parties:
Michigan-3: From Libertarian to Republican (although Justin Amash was originally elected as a Republican), captured by Peter Meijer
Minnesota-1: From Democratic to Republican, captured by Michelle Fishbach
That’s two seats over the Republicans, but remember that my overall prediction was five seats turning Democratic. That means that there are some switches that way still to come in my House forecast previews.
Coming Wednesday: Close races from New Jersey to Texas.
Coming Friday: An additional ten races that I predict will be very close – within two percent at 51%-49% or closer. Which means that they will likely require a recount, bringing us more drama for weeks after the election. Getcha popcorn.
Today, it’s time for the last leg of the tripod: my forecast for the results of the 2020 elections for the U.S. House of Representatives.
Last week, I showed you a map of what the U.S. House looks like today, for the 116th U.S. Congress. After lots of research, primarily on the always-inspirational fivethirtyeight.com, I present to you my prediction for what the House will look like next January, at the start of the 117th U.S. Congress. Guide below, click on the image for a larger version that you can actually read.
My too-small-to-read prediction of what the U.S. House of Representatives will look like after next month’s election. Click for a version you can actually read.
As is traditional yet completely arbitrary, Republican representatives are shown by red hexagons and Democratic representatives are shown by blue hexagons. The text labels show the names of incoming representatives; plain text means that I predict the incumbent will be re-elected, bold means that I predict a new representative will be elected from the same party, and bold all-caps means that I predict a party switch. A larger font size and a single asterisk(*) mean the election is likely to be close, within about 5%. An even larger font size and double asterisk(**) mean the election is likely to be very close, maybe within 2%.
Jumping to the bottom-line prediction, I predict the final count of seats by party will be:
Democratic 237 Republican 198
I wouldn’t be surprised if this prediction were off by ten or so in either direction, but it’s not going to be so far off that it results in a missed prediction of a Republican majority. That means the House election is unlikely to be exciting on a national level; the House will be declared a Democratic majority sometime around 11:30 PM Eastern Time, when the blue wave begins to roll in from the California shore.
But there will be a number of fascinating races that will, earlier in the night, give us a sense of how wide the margin might be. In my Senate prediction, I offered at least a passing comment on each of the 35 races. With 435 House races, I’m obviously not going to do that, but I have looked at them all to get a sense of which will be most exciting.
At this point, I was going to describe each close and very close race marked on the map above, giving you a snapshot of the district, the context of the 2020 race, and a prediction of who I think will win… but two hours of writing and 503 words later, I’m through six of the 35 races I wanted to cover. So this has just become a multi-part post.
My Official House Predictions are coming tomorrow, but today it’s time for a quick Presidential prediction update. Here’s the prediction map, usual style (and I should really add labels with state names). Click for a larger view.
Updated U.S. Presidential Election predictions as of today: Biden 335 Trump 203. Click for a larger version.
The most significant change by far is that, with polling there showing Biden consistently ahead, I have moved North Carolina from “Tilt Trump” to “Tilt Biden.” The fifteen electoral votes there update the final tally to give Biden 335 electoral votes and Trump 203.
Biden is now consistently ahead by 12-15 percentage points in Virginia, so I have moved Virginia from Likely Biden to Safe Biden. What happened to Virginia as a swing state? It’s not this time.
Polls have tightened enough that I have downgraded Texas – freakin’ Texas – from Likely Trump to Leans Trump. I still think Trump will win in Texas, but I’m not as confident in that prediction as I was a week ago
As the election gets closer, my predictions get more confident. Why? There are many reasons for this, but the most obvious is that more than 14 million people have already voted, either by absentee ballot or by in-person early voting. Even if today Joe Biden, Donald Trump, and Jo Jorgensen all rip off their skinsuits to reveal the lizard people underneath, that wouldn’t change the votes already cast.
Want to try your hand at predicting the outcome? You can use my map as a starting point for yours by going to the interactive predicting tool at 270towin.com. Share your predictions in the comments!
