Presidential election prediction 4: It’s finally not too early to predict

19 days to go until the 2020 U.S. Federal Election!

My Official House Predictions are coming tomorrow, but today it’s time for a quick Presidential prediction update. Here’s the prediction map, usual style (and I should really add labels with state names). Click for a larger view.

Updated U.S. Presidential Election predictions as of today: Biden 335 Trump 203. Click for a larger version.

Four changes since last time, all in Biden’s direction:

  • The most significant change by far is that, with polling there showing Biden consistently ahead, I have moved North Carolina from “Tilt Trump” to “Tilt Biden.” The fifteen electoral votes there update the final tally to give Biden 335 electoral votes and Trump 203.
  • Biden is now consistently ahead by 12-15 percentage points in Virginia, so I have moved Virginia from Likely Biden to Safe Biden. What happened to Virginia as a swing state? It’s not this time.
  • Likewise Colorado
  • Polls have tightened enough that I have downgraded Texas – freakin’ Texas – from Likely Trump to Leans Trump. I still think Trump will win in Texas, but I’m not as confident in that prediction as I was a week ago

As the election gets closer, my predictions get more confident. Why? There are many reasons for this, but the most obvious is that more than 14 million people have already voted, either by absentee ballot or by in-person early voting. Even if today Joe Biden, Donald Trump, and Jo Jorgensen all rip off their skinsuits to reveal the lizard people underneath, that wouldn’t change the votes already cast.

Want to try your hand at predicting the outcome? You can use my map as a starting point for yours by going to the interactive predicting tool at Share your predictions in the comments!

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