Uncategorized – Page 21 – Jordan Raddick

De News: Sweden (Anagrammatic Daily COVID-19 data update CIII)

Graphs day 103, pandemic day 110, day 180 since the first cases were diagnosed.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 9,952,507

Total deaths: 498,519

Worldwide cases and deaths

Big jump in cases over the weekend, pulling the smoothed average up as well:

Cases of COVID-19 reported each day worldwide. The blue line is the actual reported number of cases; the red line is the smoothed number of cases (10-day moving average smoothing), showing the overall trend. Click for a larger version.

We have almost certainly hit the 10 million cumulative cases mark worldwide, and we’ll confirm that in my graphs tomorrow. And we’ll almost certainly hit 500,000 worldwide cases tomorrow as well, ahead of my prediction.

Countries headed in the right direction, featuring NOT SWEDEN:

Countries where newly-reported cases per million people are steady or decreasing (click for a larger version)

Clearly I was overly optimistic in moving Sweden into the “headed in the right direction category.” Sweden is back to the “getting worse” chart today. Panama is gone for the moment (their cases per day have held steady the past few days), and Serbia has changed colors to purple:

Countries where the epidemic is still getting worse (click for a larger version)

The good news is that cases in Chile are down to 233 cases reported per million people, almost back down at the level where their curve will return to the main chart.

De bad news is Sweden.

If it would help you to start from my Excel templates, please use them! The county data and analysis is in my national-level data template (now version 4.2).

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end or I lose my mind.

One Black Flag (Daily COVID-19 data update CI)

Graphs day 101, pandemic day 108, day 178 since the first cases were diagnosed. I had a Cunning Plan to show you updated figures from every U.S. state, sorted into logical groupings and displayed in glorious multicolor detail. But then Corona Data Scraper didn’t put out an update today.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 9,581,803

Total deaths: 489,182

Instead, here’s an entirely different way of visualizing COVID-19 data, one I hope you will find both simple and striking.

The table below is a memorial to the Americans who died on six consecutive Sundays, from Sunday, March 1st to Sunday, April 5th. Each death is marked with a simple black flag emoji. (I could have used crosses, especially since we’re talking about death on Sunday, but I wanted to keep it both secular and vexillogical.)

One row of the table, one Sunday in America.

One death, one black flag.

Date (Deaths)	Black Flags
March 1 (1)	ðŸ´
March 8 (3)	ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´
March 15 (10)	ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´
March 22 (80)	ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´.ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´
March 29 (484)	ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´.ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´.ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´.ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´.ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´.ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´.ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´
April 5 (1,344)	ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´.ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´.ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´.ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´.ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´.ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´.ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ 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ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´.ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´ ðŸ´

One ðŸ´ = one death from COVID-19

This is what “exponential growth” looks like.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end or I am driven insane.

100 Days of COVID-19 Graphs (Daily COVID-19 data update C)

Graphs day 100. Sigh.

Pandemic day 107, day 177 since the first cases were diagnosed. Update of the global and national data today, plus an interesting update on Chile. Tomorrow, a deeper look at U.S. state data.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 9,400,295

Total deaths: 482,468

Worldwide cases and deaths

Daily reported cases worldwide, showing that after all this time, we are still seeing more and more cases every day:

…and cumulative deaths worldwide (because the dead stay dead), increasing slowly than before but still well on pace to reach half a million next Tuesday:

Cumulative deaths from COVID-19 since the beginning of the epidemic (click for a larger version)

The global case fatality rate now stands at 5.1 percent.

Cases and deaths by country

Here are are three of our four usual categories – in the counties where COVID-19 was quickly contained, it is still contained.

Countries where COVID-19 is now under control

I’ve added back some countries we had followed in the past – Germany (pink), Ireland (orange), and Slovenia (brown), all firmly Under Control.

Countries where COVID-19 is currently under control (click for a larger version)

I was worried about what looked like an uptick in cases in France and Germany, but the numbers are back down to their previous levels today.

Countries that are headed in the right direction(-ish)

Cases in Sweden, Saudi Arabia, and Peru are at almost exactly the same level as one another today.

Countries where the epidemic is getting worse

Most of these countries are still getting worse, but take a look at Chile:

What’s going on there? Remember that we’re not looking at cases directly; we’re looking at cases that have been smoothed by 10-day average smoothing. This means that each day’s value is replaced with the average value for the day, plus the five days before and the five days after.

On June 18th, Chile caught up on its case counting and reported 36,179 cases in one day. That explains the jump-and-fall in the cases per capita shown above.

Those 36,179 cases were all real cases, but it’s not that that many people suddenly fell sick on June 18th. The pattern is even clearer when you look at the observed cases for Chile and the smoothed cases on the same graph:

Observed and 10-day smoothed cases in Chile (click for a larger version)

And that maybe gives us some hope for Chile. For now, despite the fall in daily reported cases, Chile still counts as “getting worse.” But if the curve begins to trend down, then in a few days we might be able to say that Chile is moving in the right direction.

Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make the country graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You can get the U.S. state data from the Corona Data Scraper site; choose today’s data as CSV.

If it would help you to start from my Excel templates, please use them! The county data and analysis is in my national-level data template (now version 4.2). Data and analysis for U.S. states is in my new state-level template (version 1.0).

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.

Every Graph Tells a Story (Daily COVID-19 data update XCIX)

Graphs day 99, pandemic day 106, day 176 since the first cases were diagnosed. Today, rather than do an update of all the usual graphs, I’ll focus on two results: one is an update of an earlier prediction, and the other is a brand new result. But first:

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 9,229,049

Total deaths: 477,269

Predictions old and new

Back on May 17th, I made some predictions about the future course of the epidemic; six weeks later, that has become the past course as they epidemic continues to rage. So how did it go?

In terms of total worldwide cases, reality arrived ahead of schedule. I predicted we would hit five million global cases on May 23rd, and six million global cases on June 1st. Instead, we hit five million cases one day early, on May 22nd. We hit five days early, on May 31st.

In terms of deaths, though, I am pleased to say that my predictions were too high. I predicted we would hit 400,000 deaths on June 4th and 500,000 deaths on June 17th. In reality, the 400,000 death mark arrived on June 8th, and as of June 24th we still have not reached 500,000 deaths.

If you are planning to judge me on my predictions, then: how accurate were your predictions of the future course of the COVID-19 pandemic? If you didn’t make any before, now’s the time. Now’s the time for me too – here are my predictions of future deaths based on the last month of data.

The graph below shows the cumulative number of deaths from COVID-19 from the beginning of the epidemic to today. On May 26th, public health authorities in Spain issues a revised death toll, removing some people who had died of other causes. Deaths by day since then are shown by yellow squares; the black line shows the best fit to those numbers.

Total number of deaths per day in 2020. The green squares show early numbers; the yellow squares show deaths since May 26th, the day Spain revised its death toll. The black line shows the best-fit line to deaths since that date. Click for a larger version.

Since that May 26th update, deaths have been growing steadily at the rate of about 4,500 people per day. The good news is that the death rate is not increasing; the bad news is that it is not decreasing either. That steady rate lets me make predictions of when we will reach the next two death-related milestones.

Five hundred thousand deaths: Tuesday, June 30th

Six hundred thousand deaths: Wednesday, July 22nd

If you think you can do better, make your own predictions in the comments!

The United States: cases by state

The United States continues to lead the world in overall cases of COVID-19 (although Qatar and Chile far surpass us in cases per million people). The U.S. is such a big, diverse, politically decentralized country that it makes sense to look at cases not just in the country as a whole, but by state and county.

Remember that the state data is one day behind the national data, and comes from a different source. So there will be some differences, but the differences are small and explainable.

On Monday, I showed some map of the number of reported cases by state, per million people. Here is the map of cases, updated through yesterday:

Cases per million people in U.S. states (click for a larger version)

This is total cases reported, including both people who have died of COVID-19 and people who have recovered. But how have these numbers changed over the course of the epidemic?

Presenting here, for the first time, a graph of COVID-19 case rates (per million people) in individual U.S. states. The date axis (horizontal) starts on March 10th, two days before overall cases in the U.S. reached the magic number of 1 case per 1 million people. The vertical axis is “Qatar scale,” from zero to 700 cases per million people.

I picked several interesting states to show you in this first view: some northeastern states that had high rates early (New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Maryland), some southern states that have seen their rates increase recently (Florida, Texas, Arizona), and of course, the granddaddy of them all, California.

Cases per million people per day in nine U.S. states (click for a larger version)

The graph tells an amazing story: some states have gotten their COVID-19 epidemics under control, some are simply looking on as the pandemic spins out of control today.

There is so much more I could say about this graph. I’m looking forward to exploring it with you in more detail in the coming days.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.

Daily COVID-19 data update XCVIII: Nine million cases

Graphs day 98, pandemic day 105, day 175 since the first cases were diagnosed. Today let’s do a quick update of national-level data. That look will reveal two countries that have switched from getting worse to headed in the right direction. At least for now – the situation could change at any time. Sadly, there are other countries ready to take their place on the getting worse graph.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 9,063,264

Total deaths: 471,681

Earth has arrived at nine million cases worldwide:

…but the good news is that the death rate seems to be slowing down as COVID-19 leaves Europe and moves into countries with younger age distributions:

The global case fatality rate has dropped from 5.9 percent to 5.2 percent since March.

Cases and deaths by country

Here are are our four usual categories, some of which have new members. Graphs show cases per million, labels show deaths per million (dpm).

Countries where COVID-19 was quickly contained

Countries where COVID-19 case rates were never high (click for a larger version)

I’ve heard rumors of a second wave of cases in China (red), but I don’t see anything in the graph that makes me worry. Japan (purple) had a second wave in April, but thanks to decisive action by the Japanese government and people, it passed quickly.

Countries where COVID-19 is now under control

Notice that unfortunately one country is gone from this graph – the epidemic has gotten worse again in Serbia. Also, if you’re wondering where Germany is, the curve for Germany is nearly identical to the curve for France.

Countries that are headed in the right direction(-ish)

Welcome to this graph, Sweden (pink) and Saudi Arabia (orange)!

Sweden and Saudi Arabia have both been on the list of countries getting worse for the past few weeks. Their curves have flattened enough that we can consider these countries headed in the right direction.

They are particularly interesting because both have flattened from their second wave of cases. Sweden’s first peak was in late April; Saudi Arabia’s was in mid-May. They are now hopefully at the top of their second wave of cases, and cases will decrease from here.

Countries where the epidemic is getting worse

Sweden and Saudi Arabia are no longer getting worse; Serbia is back to getting worse. Also getting worse: South Africa. All of Africa, really, but South Africa has about 1/3 of the cases in the continent. Serbia is pink in the graph below, South Africa is black.

Cases in Chile are still skyrocketing, with no sign of when they might peak.

Tomorrow: graphing cases in U.S. states.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.