Graphs day 53, pandemic day 59, day 130 since the first cases were diagnosed.
Cases diagnosed worldwide: 3,898,658
Deaths worldwide: 274,290
It looks like it’ll be Monday, or maybe even Tuesday, when we hit four million cases worldwide. Hooray? The next sad milestone will be 300,000 deaths, which we will inevitably hit by the end of this month. But someday, the disease will burn itself out and this will end. How soon that happens is up to us.
Today’s map of case rates by country in Europe and South America (cases per million people):
and deaths per million people in the same countries:
Day 53 is an odd number, so here is the still-developing history of case rates of COVID-19 in nine different countries since mid-February:
and the same for deaths per million people:
As always, you can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (now at version 3.1); I’d love to see what you can build with it!
Update tomorrow-ish, and every day-ish after that until this pandemic is over.
Graphs day 52, pandemic day 58, day 129 since the first cases were diagnosed.
Cases diagnosed worldwide: 3,807,852
Deaths worldwide: 269,068
The graph below shows that the number of new cases has held steady at about 80,000 per day for more than a month. That means that the global total will probably reach four million on Sunday or Monday.
Today’s map of case rates by country in Europe and South America (cases per million people):
and deaths per million people in the same countries:
Day 52 is an even number, so today we look again at national data in a relative sense – day zero is the start of the epidemic in each country, defined as the day at which the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000. Each line is labeled with the name of the country and the current case fatality rate, ranging from 1 percent in Russia (although it will certainly increase as the disease spreads) to 16 percent in Belgium.
The graph shows that countries fall into three groups: countries where the growth rate has slowed down (Spain, Belgium, Italy) and the infection has begun to pass; countries where growth is steady (the United States, the United Kingdom, and Sweden); an countries in the early stages where growth is still speeding up (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil).
The graph of deaths by country shows some of the same trends, modified by a time delay and the varying death rates:
As always, you can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (now at version 3.1); I’d love to see what you can build with it!
Update tomorrow-ish, and every day-ish after that until this pandemic is over.
Graphs day 51, pandemic day 57, day 128 since the first cases were diagnosed. We are rapidly approaching four million diagnosed cases of COVID-19 worldwide. Remember that this number includes people who have recovered. Remember also that we do not yet know whether having recovered from COVID-19 confers immunity against future infection.
More than 260,000 people have died, and there ain’t no recovering from death.
I mentioned yesterday that South America would also make for an interesting map of cases and deaths per million people. Look, it’s South America! I’m displaying it side-by-side with Europe, using the same color scale. Cases per million people:
and deaths per million people:
Countries that I realize are worth tracking, which I wouldn’t have realized if I hadn’t made these maps: Chile, Ecuador, Peru, and Panama. But for now, I’ll stick with the same countries as yesterday.
Here is a graph showing how the number of cases per million people have changed since mid-February. It’s an odd-numbered day, so we’re looking at the case rate in real calendar days as COVID-19 has spread around the world. The countries we’re following are Spain, Belgium, the United States, Italy, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil:
We’ve been saying for weeks that the case rate in the U.S. is ahead of where Italy was at the equivalent point in the epidemic – and now, the U.S. has moved ahead of Italy in real case rate as well. The case rate appears to still be growing linearly in the U.S. and U.K. – and is speeding up in Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Deaths always lag behind diagnosed cases because it takes time for the disease to take lives. Here is the progression of death rates per capita in the same countries:
The spike in cases today in Belgium is likely due to catching up in reporting, while today’s flat curve in Spain comes from the continuing the grand Spanish tradition of reporting mañana. Note that we are beginning to see an uptick in deaths in Russia; that unfortunate trend is likely to continue over the coming weeks.
As always, you can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (now at version 3.1); I’d love to see what you can build with it!
Update tomorrow-ish, and every day-ish after that until this pandemic is over.
Graphs day 50, pandemic day 56, day 127 since the first cases were diagnosed. It’s hard to believe that I’ve been making these graphs for 50 days. COVID-19 has reached the small island nations of Sao Tome e Principe and Comoros, off the coast of Africa. Worldwide, more than 3,600,000 have been diagnosed, and more than 250,000 have died.
The global pandemic continues to grow at a linear rate:
Here are today’s updated maps from Europe. It looks like South America would make some interesting maps also; I’ll see what I can make. Cases per million people by country:
and deaths per million people by country:
Comparing today’s maps to previous maps shows that while there are still new cases and deaths everywhere, the rate of new cases and deaths is slowing in many places. In particular, the rate has slowed greatly in two countries we have been tracking all along: France and Switzerland. I’ve looked to replace them with countries where the rate is still growing, and I chose Brazil and Saudi Arabia.
Today is an even-numbered day, so we get a plot with equivalent starting points. Day zero is the day on which the case rate reached one in 1,000,000 in each country. Brazil is orange and Saudi Arabia is red.
Today’s death rates:
Belgium is finally, mercifully, slowing down.
I’ll keep following these countries as long as they continue to be interesting, and I’ll occasionally check back on countries that I formerly tracked, like China, South Korea, Iceland, France, Switzerland, and Japan. And I’ll keep looking out for new places to track.
As always, you can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” Here is my Excel template (version 3).
Update tomorrow-ish, and every day-ish after that until this pandemic is over.
Graphs day 44, pandemic day 50, day 121 since the first cases were diagnosed. On the last day of March, almost 800,000 people worldwide had been diagnosed with COVID-19, and nearly 40,000 had died. Today, those numbers are more than 3,000,000 and more than 220,000.Where will we be at the end of May?
Here are today’s updated maps from Europe. Obviously there are cases all over the world, but Europe produces the most interesting maps. Usual color scale, with some values labeled. Cases per million people by country:
and deaths per million people:
Today is an even-numbered day, so we get a even plot – countries are shown with equivalent starting points. Day zero is the day on which the case rate reached one in 1,000,000; the horizontal axis shows the number of days since then. The case rate and death rate in Iceland and Switzerland have leveled off, so I’m removing them from the plot for the moment. And once again, Spain will report its data mañana.
The highest rate of increase in cases continues to be in the U.S. and the U.K. The U.S. is now significantly ahead of where Italy was at this point in their local epidemic. France has almost completely leveled off as well, so I may remove them from the plot next.
In terms of deaths per million people:
…what happened today in the United Kingdom?!?!? More than 4,000 deaths reported just today. I suspect this is a reporting issue – a backlog of previous deaths were all reported on the same day. We’ll see how they look tomorrow.
As always, you can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” Here is my Excel template (version 3).
Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.
