Graphs day 44, pandemic day 50, day 121 since the first cases were diagnosed. On the last day of March, almost 800,000 people worldwide had been diagnosed with COVID-19, and nearly 40,000 had died. Today, those numbers are more than 3,000,000 and more than 220,000.Where will we be at the end of May?

Here are today’s updated maps from Europe. Obviously there are cases all over the world, but Europe produces the most interesting maps. Usual color scale, with some values labeled. Cases per million people by country:

and deaths per million people:

Today is an even-numbered day, so we get a even plot – countries are shown with equivalent starting points. Day zero is the day on which the case rate reached one in 1,000,000; the horizontal axis shows the number of days since then. The case rate and death rate in Iceland and Switzerland have leveled off, so I’m removing them from the plot for the moment. And once again, Spain will report its data mañana.

The highest rate of increase in cases continues to be in the U.S. and the U.K. The U.S. is now significantly ahead of where Italy was at this point in their local epidemic. France has almost completely leveled off as well, so I may remove them from the plot next.

In terms of deaths per million people:

…what happened today in the United Kingdom?!?!? More than 4,000 deaths reported just today. I suspect this is a reporting issue – a backlog of previous deaths were all reported on the same day. We’ll see how they look tomorrow.

As always, you can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” Here is my Excel template (version 3).

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.