Graphs day 31, pandemic day 37, day 108 since the first cases were diagnosed. More than 2.1 million people have been diagnosed with COVID-19, and more than 145,000 have died.

The graph of cases per million people shows that the case rate in Belgium is well on its way to matching Spain’s:

and also that the UK’s rate is nearing that of France. Also, note that, unlike in Italy or France, the rate of new cases in the U.S. has not slowed to sublinear. Quick, someone tell Greg Abbott and Ron DeSantis!

The Abbott-DeSantis Effect (my new name for “people dying because governors won’t accept reality”) is even clearer when looking at cases per million with equivalent start times, where the line for Italy starts to bend down right at the point where the line for the U.S. continues to rise.

In terms of deaths per capita, Belgium has taken over first place from Spain:

…and unfortunately the death rate in Belgium shows no sign of slowing. The shocking pace of dying in Belgium is even clearer when looking at the graph from equivalent points in the epidemic:

I’m working on a Python script that will, among other things, let me make maps as well as graphs. Stay tuned for maps tomorrow!

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs; here’s the latest version with all the graphs including Russia and Japan.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.