Graphs day 57, pandemic day 63, day 134 since the first cases were diagnosed.

Total cases diagnosed worldwide: 4,223,047

Current worldwide deaths: 291,519

I had some more time today to mess with the data, so I’m able to show the results in some new and interesting ways. I’ll skip the maps today and go straight to the graphs.

I realized it’s been a while since I showed you the graphs of COVID-19 cases and deaths in absolute numbers, rather than as rates per million people. It’s always good to remind yourself of what the data really means – in this case, the lines mean increasing numbers of people sick or dead.

Total cases by country by day (apologies, no data labels here, but hopefully you can get the idea from a quick glance, knowing that the line way at the top is the United States):

Total deaths by country by day (same deal):

In a way, this is a better graph, because it’s plotting the thing that ultimately matters – the sick and the dead. In a way, though, it’s a worse graph, because it puts countries on unequal footing. The position on the graph is determined as much by the total population of the country as it is by the severity of the COVID-19 epidemic there. I think that cases and deaths per million gives a more fair representation of the COVID-19 situation in each country, which is why that is the primary way I have been presenting the data. The lesson here is that the best graph to show depends on the question you are trying to answer.

Before I show the usual graphs, I decided to revisit some old friends – countries that I used to track, but stopped tracking because the curve had conclusively flattened. Here is the graph of cases, with lines labeled for the countries with the most cases and the line thickness indicating the case fatality rate in that country. Are the curves still flat?

With the exception of Iran and maybe France, yes. Lesson:

WE CAN DEFEAT COVID-19. STAY THE COURSE, IT’S WORKING!

What about the countries where the curve has not yet completely flattened? As before, some are close to flat, some continue to increase linearly, and some are so early in their local epidemics that cases and deaths continue to increase exponentially. And Qatar is weird, I’m still not sure what’s going on there.

Cases per million people:

Deaths per million people:

I’ll keep following these countries as long as they continue to produce interesting data, and I’ll occasionally check back in with our old friends too.

As always, you can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (time for a version update to include the data from the old-new countries, it’s now version 3.2). I’d love to see what you can build with it!

Update tomorrow-ish, and every day-ish after that until this pandemic is over.