Daily COVID-19 data update LXIII

Graphs day 63, pandemic day 69 dudes!, day 140 since the first cases were diagnosed.

Total cases diagnosed worldwide: 4,766,468

Current worldwide deaths: 318,201

Worldwide, COVID-19 continues to grow at a steady rate of about 80,000 cases and 6,000 deaths per day. We may in fact be ahead of my recent prediction, as it looks like we might hit five million cases this Friday (May 22nd).

Non-essential businesses are beginning to open throughout the United States. It is almost certainly too early to safely do so, although as I discuss below, there are some encouraging signs that the rates of new cases and deaths are slowing down in the U.S. Even more encouraging news to be discussed below comes from Slovenia, which recently became the first European country to declare and end to its local COVID-19 epidemic.

I will also be returning to pre-pandemic activity by writing a new blog post every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, separate from my daily tracking of the COVID-19 epidemic. On other days, I will provide data updates as I have done for months now.

Cases per million people by country

It’s an odd-numbered day, so let’s look at how the pandemic has played out in real time in various countries since mid-February. Just for today, India is out so I can show Slovenia.

One more change to today’s map of case rates by country – I realized that the map’s color scale should really be the same as the graph’s y-axis scale. So I changed the color scale of the map to have a maximum of 5,000 cases per million. Qatar is still off the scale.

Those are the total number of cases today, and here is the history of cases in our ten selected countries, today including Slovenia:

The curve for Slovenia has been basically flat for more than a month, with fewer than 500 new cases in total reported since April 15th – in a country with a population of more than two million. Congratulations, Slovenia! Be like Slovenia.

Deaths per million people by country

Here is the map of deaths per million people for the usual countries, and also Slovenia. The color scale is the same as ever.

and here is the history of deaths per million people:

The curve for Slovenia is massively flat in this view too. And the curve of deaths per million people in the U.S. is finally, finally beginning to turn over. It’s still hard to see in the graph, but it becomes clearer when looking at the raw numbers. Over the last few days, the U.S. has averaged about 800 deaths per day, down from about 1,700 per day last week and 3,000 per day last month. Experts still believe that it is too early to reopen most businesses in the U.S., but at least the slowing down of the death rate is a bit of good news for a country that desperately needs some good news.

If you want to see the recent deaths rates in the U.S. – or anything else! – I highly encourage you to look for yourself. As always, you can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (version 3.2). I’d love to see what you can build with it, and I’m happy to help you figure it out!

Different topic tomorrow, but still COVID-19-related. And regular updates continuing as long as the pandemic continues.

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