Graphs day 62, pandemic day 68, day 139 since the first cases were diagnosed.

Total cases diagnosed worldwide: 4,679,511

Current worldwide deaths: 315,005

Worldwide, COVID-19 continues to grow at a steady rate of about 80,000 cases and 6,000 deaths per day.

After seeing the good news from Serbia yesterday, I’ve removed it from today’s graph and replaced it with India. There are still not many cases in India, and even fewer deaths. Hopefully it will stay that way. But India is so big and densely populated that it has terrifying potential to become a new epicenter of the pandemic, putting hundreds of millions of people at risk.

Cases per million people by country

It’s an even-numbered day, so let’s look at each country’s experience with the pandemic from an equivalent starting point – the day at which the case rate reached one in one million. The horizontal scale on the graphs show the number of days elapsed since that day.

Cases in the United Kingdom has caught up with Italy at this point in their disease trajectory, and similarly cases in Russia have caught up with those in Sweden. It looks inevitable that cases in the U.S. will catch up with cases in Belgium and Spain, maybe as soon as the end of this week.

Deaths per million people by country

Deaths seem to be down today in a number of countries (indicated by the tip of the curve being flatter today in those countries), but I suspect this is just normal variation rather than a genuine long-lasting flattening. We’ll find out as time goes by.

If you don’t like the way I did this analysis, I encourage you to try it yourself! As always, you can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (version 3.2). I’d love to see what you can build with it!

Update tomorrow-ish, and every day-ish after that until this pandemic is over.