Graphs day 68, pandemic day 74, day 145 since the first cases were diagnosed.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 5,273,572

Total deaths: 341,722

As the graph below shows, the rate of new cases continues to increase above the linear fit I had calculated before. That means we’ll hit six million cases well before my original prediction of June 4th.

A change to the ECDC schema broke my Python script, so no maps until I get that figured out. It’s just a matter of some time and stubbornness, so it shouldn’t be more than a few days.

Cases by country

Today is an even-numbered day, so here is the graph of the relative state of the epidemic, showing the number of cases by the number of days elapsed since the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000.

The United States has now passed Belgium – not only Belgium at the equivalent point (day 78), but Belgium’s rate today. Spain is next. Brazil’s rate looks like it may have stabilized at a new, higher, value – but we’ll know for sure daqui a alguns dias.

Deaths by country

The graph of cumulative deaths by country continues to look roughly the same as it has for a the last month:

With case rates, it’s not clear whether the best thing to plot is the number of new cases per day (which would be more bell-curve-like) or cumulative cases, which is what I’ve been showing here. But with deaths, it’s clear that cumulative is the right thing to graph. Because the dead stay dead.

You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (time for a version update, it’s now version 3.3). I’d love to see what you can build with it, and I’m happy to help you figure it out!

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.