Graphs day 67, pandemic day 73, day 144 since the first cases were diagnosed.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 5,175,476

Total deaths: 338,039

For comparison, COVID-19 has now killed more people than the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.

Depressingly, the rate at which new cases are diagnoses is once again increasing. Take a look at this plot of global cases and deaths, with best-fit lines showing the rate of new cases and deaths since April 1st. Look how each of dots representing the number of cases lie further and further above the line over the the last four days.

If this continues, I’ll have to redo my line fits and thus redo my predictions of when we will hit the next milestones of six million cases and 400,000 deaths.

Cases by country

In today’s maps, look for Belarus and Peru, both of which have turned a worrying shade of tomato red. We’ll keep watching both over the next few weeks.

And sadly another rescale on the graph, as the case rate in Spain has passed 5,000 per million people.

Despite that, the curve for Spain is remaining quite flat – which means that the curve for Spain will inevitably be passed by the curve for the United States, which continues to increase at a constant rate. Although they may all be passed by Brazil, whose curve is turning in entirely the wrong direction.

Deaths by country

The death rate in Sweden continues to creep up; it’s now nearly ten times that of neighboring Norway.

…and the death rate in the United Kingdom has nearly equaled that in Italy.

You can get the data that I used to make these graphs from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (version 3.2). I’d love to see what you can build with it, and I’m happy to help you figure it out!

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end.