Graphs day 114, pandemic day 121, day 191 since the first cases were diagnosed. Happy Independence Day to Argentina and South Sudan, I’ll include you in today’s global update.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide (another sad milestone): 12,041,480

Total deaths: 549,468

Cases by country

It’s been a long time since I’ve shown a map of the COVID-19 death toll, so I’ll show that at the end of today’s post. But first, our usual categories.

As always, the graphs show dates on the horizontal axis, cases per million people on the vertical axis. The lines show new cases reported *on that day*. Each line is color-coded and labeled with the name of the country it represents; labels also include that country’s deaths per million people (dpm). Line thicknesses and label sizes represent the case fatality rate in that country (deaths divided by total cases).

Countries where COVID-19 was quickly contained

South Sudan (pink) is one of the world’s poorest countries, but they have managed to keep COVID-19 cases fairly low, primarily due to the lack of mobility of the population and lack of international travel to and from South Sudan. Meanwhile, cases continue to increase in Australia: yesterday 170 new cases were reported, for a smoothed per million people rate of 6.5 cases per million Australians. I said that if the case rate exceeds 6.8 per million, I’ll move Australia into the “getting worse” category. That could happen tomorrow, we’ll see.

Countries where COVID-19 is now under control

No major changes to the “under control” category this week.

Countries that are headed in the right direction(-ish)

I knew I said I’d wait another day before moving Sweden into the “countries headed in the right direction” category, but the level of cases reported is back down to the level of late May.

There’s no way to know whether Sweden will stay on its current course, or whether another wave will begin and send cases higher than ever before. But for now at least, Sweden looks pretty good.

Countries where the epidemic is getting worse

It’s Nueve de Julio in Argentina, so we’ll check in with them on today’s graph (ilght blue.

Unlike in their neighbors to the west, Chile, the epidemic in Argentina continues to get worse. Case growth has slowed down in Serbia and Brazil, but continues with distressing speed in the U.S. and South Africa.

Deaths per million people by country

And because I like to check back in every once in a while with things we’ve seen before, here is a map of deaths per million people in countries around the world. These are total deaths since the beginning of the epidemic, because the dead stay dead.

and a close-up of Europe and the Americas:

Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make the country graphs from Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) COVID-19 data site. Click on csse_covid_19_data, then on csse_covid_19_time_series, then download all the CSV files. Or clone the whole repository from GitHub.

You are welcome and encouraged to use my Excel templates. I’ve tinkered enough that I’m plus-plusing the version to 5.1. I have two separate templates: a global data template and a U.S. state data template.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic comes to an end or I lose my mind.