Graphs day 137, pandemic day 144, day 214 since the first cases were diagnosed.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 17,591,968

Total deaths: 679,439

It’s Independece Day in the west African nation of Benin (pronounced ben-EEN), and fortunately like many countries in Africa, Benin has very few cases. Also, by popular demand, I’ve added Ecuador.

As I’ve feared for many days now, the number of cases in Spain and Belgium have both increased to more than five times their values of late June, and are continuing to increase – enough that it’s clear that they need to be moved into the “getting worse” category. But unfortunately, so many countries now fit that description that putting them all on one graph would result in an indecipherable graph. So how to split it up?

I think it makes the most sense to make a distinction between countries experiencing a second wave of COVID-19 infections and those where the first wave is still getting worse. It’s somewhat arbitrary to declare when one wave has ended and another has begun, but I’ve done my best to decide which is which.

Thus, starting today, there are five categories. All graphs are below, in the usual style. Countries are color-coded and labeled by name. The thickness of the lines and the sizes of the labels correspond to the case fatality rate in the country – thicker lines and larger labels indicate countries where a larger percentage of COVID-19 cases have led to death.

Regions where COVID-19 was quickly contained

In honor of Benin’s Independence Day, I’ve added them to my data tracking for today only (purple line). I’m grateful that I can put them in this category.

Regions where COVID-19 is currently under control(-ish)

Sadly, Spain and Belgium have left this graph. But the good news is that one country has joined the graph: the rate of new cases diagnosed in Belarus has fallen to below 15 per million.

Regions moving in the right direction(-ish)

Belarus has left this graph for the Under Control graph. Sweden may join them soon – which I absolutely would not have predicted back in April, May, or June. On the other end, cases in Peru have increased to above 150 per million people per day, and so they move into the Getting Worse category.

Regions experiencing a second wave of COVID-19 cases

So many countries fit into Getting Worse category that I have divided it into two. First up, countries where the daily case rate had reached a very low level, then went back up again, and is continuing to increase. The regions I am tracking in this category, at least for now, are Spain, Belgium, Australia, Japan, and Serbia.

Regions where the pandemic is getting worse

As before, I’m tracking cases in Florida separately from the rest of the United States. Ecuador could have gone in the second wave category, but I put them here because

Florida appears to be on a downward trend, thank God. But I’m waiting at least until they return to the main graph before declaring them moving in the right direction.

I’ve updated my spreadsheet (still version 7) to restore the formulas. The upside is that you can now more easily make changes to make the graphs your own; the downside is that unless you are on a high-end computer, the calculations will be slooooooooooooooooow. To speed up calculations, replace formulas with values once you decide you have the right formulas. If you’re not sure how to do that, just ask – leave a comment, messenge me on social media, or send me an email at jordan.raddick@gmail.com.

Have a great rest of the weekend. Another update on the state of the pandemic tomorrow, and every day until the pandemic ends or I do.