Graphs day 125, pandemic day 132, day 202 since the first cases were diagnosed.
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 14,507,132
Total deaths: 606,167
I’m working on a new spreadsheet that will allow me to compare any counties states in the U.S. with any regions in the world – not just countries, but also regions within countries. I’m particularly interested in looking at how current COVID-19 hotspots like Florida compare to past hotspots like Lombardy, Italy and Hubei, China (the province where Wuhan is located).
Here’s the formula that I wrote in one cell of the spreadsheet:
=IF(IFERROR(XMATCH(INDIRECT(CONCAT("'",$B$1,"'!$",$E$1,"$",$A11)),'Areas of interest'!$A$1:$A$99999),-1 <> -1, IF(INDIRECT(CONCAT("'",$B$1,"'!$",$E$2,"$",$A11))="US",INDIRECT(CONCAT("'",$B$1,"'!$",$E$3,"$",$A11)),INDIRECT(CONCAT("'",$B$1,"'!$",$E$1,"$",$A11))),IF(INDIRECT(CONCAT("'",$B$1,"'!$",$E$2,"$",$A11))="US",INDIRECT(CONCAT("'",$B$1,"'!$",$E$1,"$",$A11)),INDIRECT(CONCAT("'",$B$1,"'!$",$E$2,"$",$A11))))
Did I mention that I like spreadsheets?
Here is the update for cases in Florida, compared to the usual comparison countries.
History of the COVID-19 pandemic in various countries, and also Florida (click for a larger version)
Cases have decreased in Florida the last two days. Hopefully that’s the beginning of a longer trend. We’ll find out as we go.
Update tomorrow, and every day until the pandemic ends or I do.
Graphs day 124, pandemic day 131, day 201 since the first cases were diagnosed. Unfortunately, today is the day we’ve been waiting for. Earlier I had predicted that Earth would reach 600,000 deaths due to COVID-19 on July 23rd. Four days early, that number has arrived.
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 14,288,357
Total deaths: 602,138
In last Monday’s post, I compared cases in Florida to cases in countries around the world. The state of the pandemic in Florida then looked far worse than in most other countries. How does it look now, six days later?
Unfortunately, even worse. Florida is shown by the green line in the graph below.
History of the COVID-19 pandemic in various countries, and also Florida (click for a larger version)
The smoothed per capita rate of new cases in Florida today is 525 per million people, far higher than any of the countries we have been tracking and similar to the rate at the worst of the epidemic in Chile.
Longer update tomorrow as part of the usual Monday-Wednesday-Friday schedule, and updates (almost) every day until this terrible pandemic is over.
Graphs day 123, pandemic day 130, day 199 since the first cases were diagnosed. I just got back from a lovely five days of socially distanced camping in Shenandoah National Park. As much as I’ve enjoyed making these graphs for you most of the last 123 days, it was really nice to go five full days without graphs. But it’s nice to be back, and I’m energized and ready to go.
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 14,055,299
Total deaths: 596,518
We’ll almost certainly reach six hundred thousand deaths tomorrow, fully four days before my previous prediction.
Cases by country
Quick global update today, with our usual graph style and usual four categories. Not much time for detailed analysis today, but I’ll have a more detailed post on Monday.
Countries where COVID-19 was quickly contained
Countries that quickly contained their COVID-19 epidemics (click for a larger version)
Maybe a slight increase in Japan, I’ll keep a close eye on how things evolve there.
Countries where COVID-19 is now under control
Countries where COVID-19 is currently under control (click for a larger version)
I’m afraid that there has been an increase in cases in many of these countries, particularly Spain. This could indicate that a second wave is coming. But fortunately, the case rates are nowhere near what they were at the peaks.
Countries that are headed in the right direction(-ish)
Countries where newly-reported cases per million people are steady or decreasing (click for a larger version)
Qatar and Chile are back on the main graph again, and it looks like the decrease in Sweden is a real decrease. The case rate in Belarus is currently 17.9 per million. If it drops below 10 per million, I will gleefully move it to the “COVID-19 is under control for now” category.
Countries where the epidemic is getting worse
Countries where the epidemic is still getting worse (click for a larger version)
The case rate in the U.S. and South Africa has exceeded 200 cases per million, at 202 and 206 respectively. Tomorrow I will reluctantly add a “Qatar scale” to this graph so we can see the full range of case rates.
Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make the country graphs from Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) COVID-19 data site. Click on csse_covid_19_data, then on csse_covid_19_time_series, then download all the CSV files. Or clone the whole repository from GitHub.
You are welcome and encouraged to use my Excel templates. I’ve tinkered enough that I’m plus-plusing the version to 5.1. I have two separate templates: a global data template and a U.S. state data template.
Update tomorrow, and approximately every day until the pandemic ends.
O HAI! I’m not saying it’s aliens, but Joe Biden is creepy.
A special message today from the Grass Mud Horse:
Greetings, comrades! I hope you are having a productive and obedient year. This year has certainly been eventful. Except in Hong Kong, where nothinghashappened.
But I write to you today not about our peaceful and prosperous nation, but about your United States of America. Specifically, your upcoming election between your own Dear Leader å·æ™® and Creepy Uncle Joe Biden.
One does not simply Joe Biden is creepy
You’ve probably seen some memes about how creepy Joe Biden is.
The Chinese Communist Party is not spreading those memes. Our glorious Dear Leader would never permit our glorious Internet Censors (which don’t exist, by the way) to interfere in a foreign election to promote our national interest.
But you should still spread them as widely as possible. As the kids today say: these hip maymays are 2 dank 2 yeet! YOLO BRO!
But you’ll certainly agree that Joe Biden is creepy, yes? After all, at least 28 separate women have accused him of sexual assault or harassment.
There is no evidence that Biden has ever even met the late Jeffrey Epstein, but in 2002 he had this to say about the convicted rapist and sex trafficker:
I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life.
No, wait, that was Trump, in an interview with New York magazine
Biden is so creepy that he has been photographed sitting on a pornographic statue with his hand around a fifteen-year-old girl’s hip – she’s wearing a short skirt, a butterfly halter top, and no bra – while she strokes his face lovingly, and oh, the girl in question is HIS OWN DAUGHTER:
So I guess all that evidence of Biden being creepy is actually evidence of Trump being creepy, but none of that matters because Joe Biden is creepy. Because the glorious Chinese Communist Party says so.
It’s very important that you listen to your Chinese Communist Party leaders.
Because if Biden is elected, he might actually reduce your national debt, which would reduce your reliance on our generous loans gifts which I’m sure we will never ask you to pay back because that would ruin your economy and leave us as the world’s only remaining superpower. Or he might cause your country to once again be respected around the world, so that other nations turn to you instead of us.
Whoops, I said the quiet part out loud again. I hate it when I do that.
No, not this meme, comrade! Do not look at this meme!
But here’s the important takeaway:
The Chinese Communist Party wants you to think Joe Biden is creepy.
The Chinese Communist Party wants you to think Joe Biden is creepy.
The Chinese Communist Party wants you to think Joe Biden is creepy.
(I feel like there’s some sort of message to this post, but I can’t quite put my hoof on it.)
You’ll be seeing a lot of “Joe Biden is creepy” memes over the next few months.
Every time you see one, don’t forget to think of your benevolent silent overlords in the Chinese Communist Party!
Graphs day 118, pandemic day 125, day 195 since the first cases were diagnosed. Today Florida is in the spotlight!
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 12,910,357
Total deaths: 569,128
Yesterday I asked a simple question: if Florida were a country, how screwed would it be? Or: how do cases in Florida – just Florida, separate from the rest of the U.S. – compare to cases in the countries we’ve been following?
This has been an adventure, I basically had to start over with my spreadsheet to make this work. Fortunately, I am very very stubborn.
Usual graph style, Florida is in green. Blue is no longer the entire U.S., it’s now the U.S. minus Florida. (I should really make a page that explains the graphs for people starting the blog from this post.)
Countries where COVID-19 was quickly contained
History of the COVID-19 pandemic in various countries, and also Florida (click for a larger version)
To answer the question raised above: quite screwed. Look how fast the pandemic in Florida Looney Tuned off the main scale onto the Qatar graph. Florida is now leading all the countries on this graph in terms of cases per million people.
The good news is that the case fatality rate in Florida is lower, at just 1.6 percent. But that’s mostly illusory good news – so many new cases have been transmitted in the past two weeks that many people who will die haven’t reached the point of dying yet. Expect the CFR to climb to close to its value in the rest of the US.
Reminder: I’ll be camping in Shenandoah National Park the rest of this week, so no more COVID-19 updates until Saturday. But you’ll still see non-COVID posts on Wednesday and Friday this week.
