Graphs day 123, pandemic day 130, day 199 since the first cases were diagnosed. I just got back from a lovely five days of socially distanced camping in Shenandoah National Park. As much as I’ve enjoyed making these graphs for you most of the last 123 days, it was really nice to go five full days without graphs. But it’s nice to be back, and I’m energized and ready to go.
Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 14,055,299
Total deaths: 596,518
We’ll almost certainly reach six hundred thousand deaths tomorrow, fully four days before my previous prediction.
Cases by country
Quick global update today, with our usual graph style and usual four categories. Not much time for detailed analysis today, but I’ll have a more detailed post on Monday.
Countries where COVID-19 was quickly contained
Maybe a slight increase in Japan, I’ll keep a close eye on how things evolve there.
Countries where COVID-19 is now under control
I’m afraid that there has been an increase in cases in many of these countries, particularly Spain. This could indicate that a second wave is coming. But fortunately, the case rates are nowhere near what they were at the peaks.
Countries that are headed in the right direction(-ish)
Qatar and Chile are back on the main graph again, and it looks like the decrease in Sweden is a real decrease. The case rate in Belarus is currently 17.9 per million. If it drops below 10 per million, I will gleefully move it to the “COVID-19 is under control for now” category.
Countries where the epidemic is getting worse
The case rate in the U.S. and South Africa has exceeded 200 cases per million, at 202 and 206 respectively. Tomorrow I will reluctantly add a “Qatar scale” to this graph so we can see the full range of case rates.
Want to try out some of these graphs for yourself? You can get the data that I used to make the country graphs from Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) COVID-19 data site. Click on csse_covid_19_data, then on csse_covid_19_time_series, then download all the CSV files. Or clone the whole repository from GitHub.
You are welcome and encouraged to use my Excel templates. I’ve tinkered enough that I’m plus-plusing the version to 5.1. I have two separate templates: a global data template and a U.S. state data template.
Update tomorrow, and approximately every day until the pandemic ends.