Graphs day 30, pandemic day 36, day 107 since the first cases were diagnosed. Global cases have now passed two million, so sadly I’ve had to rescale the graph again. More than 135,000 people have died. But the good news is that, for the first time, we are seeing signs of a slowdown in the rate of new cases.

The graph of cases per million people shows that the case rate in Belgium has passed Italy and is rapidly gaining on Spain:

Looking at the plot scaled to equivalent points in the epidemic (measured as the number of days after the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000), it becomes easier to see that case rates are continuing to grow quickly in the US, the UK, and Russia:

The situation in Belgium looks even worse when looking at deaths per million people:

And looking at deaths per day elapsed shows that deaths are still increasing in France even as the rate of cases decreases. That’s to be expected, and the increase in deaths will come to an end soon.

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs; here’s the latest version with all the graphs including Russia and Japan.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 29, pandemic day 35, day 106 since the first cases were diagnosed. All five of the usual graphs are back today, with Russia and Japan displayed. I thought for sure we would be over 2 million cases worldwide, but today’s dataset records only 1.95 million. More than 125,000 people have died. Global cases and deaths continue to grow at a linear rate, which is a hell of a lot better than growing at an exponential rate.

The graph of cases per million people, updated through April 15th and including Russia and Japan:

After being passed by Belgium, Italy has moved back ahead by a hair. The number of cases in Russia is clearly increasing. It’s hard to see the increase in Japan on this scale. It’s a bit easier to see when comparing all the countries from equal start dates – as in our usual graph, comparing the number of days since the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000:

It’s easy to see the increase in Japan after about day 45. Japan had this epidemic under control, but they released their precautions too early. Don’t be Japan. Don’t release the precautions too early.

The same countries by days since the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000:

And again, the U.S. tracks closely with Italy.

The graph of deaths per million by day – I keep hoping the rate of deaths in Belgium will slow down, but it keeps on going.

And in fact, when we look at the death rate in terms of days elapsed since the case rate reached 1 per 1,000,000…

The death rate in Belgium has passed the rate in Spain at the equivalent time in the epidemic. Meanwhile the increased case rate in Russia and Japan has not yet shown up in increased death rate – but sadly it will.

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs; here’s the latest version with all the graphs including Russia and Japan.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 28, pandemic day 34, day 105 since the first cases were diagnosed. More than 1.8 million people have been diagnosed and more than 118,000 have died.

(I missed yesterday, so this is daily COVID-19 data update XXVII as well.)

Tracking two new countries in today’s update: Russia (where cases have been rapidly increasing) and Japan (where cases had completely leveled off but have begun to increase again). To make room for these two new colors I removed Switzerland and Australia. Russia is orange and Japan is red.

Belgium has now moved slightly ahead of Italy in terms of cases per capita (and also in deaths per capita, although I haven’t finished updating that graph yet).

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 26, pandemic day 32, day 103 since the first cases were diagnosed. COVID-19 has reached two more countries: São Tomé and Principe, and Yemen. More than 1.7 million people have been diagnosed and more than 100,000 have died.

Usual graphs ahoy!

Most likely Belgium will have passed Italy in total number of cases by tomorrow.

The same countries by days since the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000:

And again, the U.S. tracks closely with Italy.

By popular request, this graph shows the number of deaths in each country. Belgium continues to worry me.

And when looking at deaths by days elapsed (same scale as in the case graph above), the U.S. continues to track Switzerland.

I underestimated the amount of by-hand finagling necessary to create these graphs in Excel. I’m extremely proud of the work I’ve done in Excel, because it’s a program familiar to and easily available for literally billions of people. But I think it’s time for a new approach. Stay tuned tomrorow.

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.

Graphs day 25, pandemic day 31, day 102 since the first cases were diagnosed. We’ve hit another sad milestone in today’s dataset – more than 100,000 deaths worldwide due to COVID-19.

Here is our usual graph of the number of cases per million people in various countries, with the line thickness representing the case fatality rate in that country. The first graph shows the number of cases in each country by calendar day, the second shows by the number of days after the case rate reached 1 per 1,000,000 (thus putting all countries on the same timescale).

The United States has firmly passed France in terms of cases per capita, and Belgium is very close to passing Italy.

The same countries by days since the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000:

It continues to amaze me how closely the history of cases in the U.S. follows the history in Italy.

By popular request, this graph shows the number of deaths in each country. Belgium worries me.

And when looking at deaths by days elapsed (same scale as in the case graph above), it’s amazing how closely the U.S. tracks with Switzerland.

You can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template to make your own graphs.

Update tomorrow, and every day after that until this pandemic is over.