Every day, the World Health Organization (WHO) publishes a daily update of the number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide, and the number of deaths.

Every day, I make graph of the data. We’ll be able to see, in real time, as the disease spreads and kills. Quickly.

Here is the number of cases by country (excluding China), each day from February 17 to today, March 19. The inset graph shows all cases in 2020 and includes China.

New in today’s graph: I removed Australia and Germany, and added Belgium at the request of my Belgian friends. I changed the style of the previously-indistinguishable blue lines. South Korea is the solid light blue line, France is the dashed line, and the United States is the dotted line. Also new today, a graph of deaths due to Coronavirus, with the same countries represented by the same colors and patterns of lines. Depressingly, enough people have died in Italy that we no longer need the inset.

See how on the case graph, the United States is following the same curve as Italy, but three weeks later? And see how the deaths graph follows the same trend as the cases graph?

A lot of people are going to die over the next few weeks. I hope I am wrong.

This is terrifying. Stay safe, everybody.

Here is a link to my Excel template for making that figure, if you would like to play with the data yourself. And please do – I’d love to see what you come up with!

Update tomorrow, and every day until WHO declares the pandemic over.