Graphs day 51, pandemic day 57, day 128 since the first cases were diagnosed. We are rapidly approaching four million diagnosed cases of COVID-19 worldwide. Remember that this number includes people who have recovered. Remember also that we do not yet know whether having recovered from COVID-19 confers immunity against future infection.

More than 260,000 people have died, and there ain’t no recovering from death.

I mentioned yesterday that South America would also make for an interesting map of cases and deaths per million people. Look, it’s South America! I’m displaying it side-by-side with Europe, using the same color scale. Cases per million people:

and deaths per million people:

Countries that I realize are worth tracking, which I wouldn’t have realized if I hadn’t made these maps: Chile, Ecuador, Peru, and Panama. But for now, I’ll stick with the same countries as yesterday.

Here is a graph showing how the number of cases per million people have changed since mid-February. It’s an odd-numbered day, so we’re looking at the case rate in real calendar days as COVID-19 has spread around the world. The countries we’re following are Spain, Belgium, the United States, Italy, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil:

We’ve been saying for weeks that the case rate in the U.S. is ahead of where Italy was at the equivalent point in the epidemic – and now, the U.S. has moved ahead of Italy in real case rate as well. The case rate appears to still be growing linearly in the U.S. and U.K. – and is speeding up in Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Deaths always lag behind diagnosed cases because it takes time for the disease to take lives. Here is the progression of death rates per capita in the same countries:

The spike in cases today in Belgium is likely due to catching up in reporting, while today’s flat curve in Spain comes from the continuing the grand Spanish tradition of reporting mañana. Note that we are beginning to see an uptick in deaths in Russia; that unfortunate trend is likely to continue over the coming weeks.

As always, you can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (now at version 3.1); I’d love to see what you can build with it!

Update tomorrow-ish, and every day-ish after that until this pandemic is over.