Graphs day 52, pandemic day 58, day 129 since the first cases were diagnosed.

Cases diagnosed worldwide: 3,807,852

Deaths worldwide: 269,068

The graph below shows that the number of new cases has held steady at about 80,000 per day for more than a month. That means that the global total will probably reach four million on Sunday or Monday.

Today’s map of case rates by country in Europe and South America (cases per million people):

and deaths per million people in the same countries:

Day 52 is an even number, so today we look again at national data in a relative sense – day zero is the start of the epidemic in each country, defined as the day at which the case rate reached 1 in 1,000,000. Each line is labeled with the name of the country and the current case fatality rate, ranging from 1 percent in Russia (although it will certainly increase as the disease spreads) to 16 percent in Belgium.

The graph shows that countries fall into three groups: countries where the growth rate has slowed down (Spain, Belgium, Italy) and the infection has begun to pass; countries where growth is steady (the United States, the United Kingdom, and Sweden); an countries in the early stages where growth is still speeding up (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil).

The graph of deaths by country shows some of the same trends, modified by a time delay and the varying death rates:

As always, you can get the data yourself from the European Centers for Disease Control’s Coronavirus Source Data; choose “all four metrics.” You are welcome to use my Excel template (now at version 3.1); I’d love to see what you can build with it!

Update tomorrow-ish, and every day-ish after that until this pandemic is over.