Remember how I said yesterday that the trend in the number COVID-19 cases in the U.S. was following the same path as Italy a few weeks ago?

Hahahahahaha psych, it looks like it’s spreading FASTER than in Italy.

Every day, the World Health Organization (WHO) publishes a daily update of the number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide, and the number of deaths.

Every day, I make graph of the data. We’ll be able to see, in real time, as the disease spreads and kills. Quickly.

Here is the graph of cases per day for selected countries. The United States is the blue dotted line. As you can see, we have passed France and South Korea, and we are rapidly approaching Spain and Iran.

and here is the graph of the number of deaths per day:

The inset graph is no longer necessary, because deaths in Italy have now surpassed deaths in China.

Here is a link to my Excel template for making that figure, if you would like to play with the data yourself. And please do – I’d love to see what you come up with!

Update tomorrow, and every day until WHO declares the pandemic over.

Here’s the bracket of my simulated NCAA men’s basketball tournament after the first day of first-round games, along with today’s schedule. As always, all games reported in real time at my Twitter feed, @fixthemadness.

Schedule for Friday, March 19

Noon ET: (3) Florida State vs. (14) Hofstra (Midwest Regional from Greensboro, North Carolina)
12:30 PM ET: (6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Rutgers (South Regional from Cleveland, Ohio)
1:20 PM ET: (1) Duke vs. (16) Portland State (South Regional from Omaha, Nebraska)
1:50 PM ET: (2) San Diego State vs. (15) UC Irvine (West Regional from Sacramento, California)
2:30 PM ET: (4) Maryland vs. (13) Bradley (East, Greensboro)
3:00 PM ET: (8) Illinois vs. (9) Richmond (East, Cleveland)
3:50 PM ET: (8) Michigan vs. (9) Auburn (Midwest, Omaha)
4:20 PM ET: (5) Ohio State vs. (12) Louisiana Tech (Midwest, Sacramento)
6:45 PM ET: (6) Kentucky vs. (11) Colorado (Midwest, Greensboro)
7:00 PM ET: (3) BYU vs. (14) Siena (South, Cleveland)
7:15 PM ET: (8) Marquette vs. (9) Virginia (South, Omaha)
7:15 PM ET: (7) St. Mary’s (California) vs. (10) Penn State (West, Sacramento)
9:15 PM ET: (5) Seton Hall vs. (12) USC (East, Greensboro)
9:30 PM ET: (1) Dayton vs. (16) Robert Morris (East, Cleveland)
9:45 PM ET: (1) Kansas vs. (16) Boston University (Midwest, Omaha)
9:55 PM ET: (4) Arizona vs. (13) Belmont (Midwest, Sacramento)

Is this finally your team’s year? Find out at my Twitter feed @fixthemadness!

Every day, the World Health Organization (WHO) publishes a daily update of the number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide, and the number of deaths.

Every day, I make graph of the data. We’ll be able to see, in real time, as the disease spreads and kills. Quickly.

Here is the number of cases by country (excluding China), each day from February 17 to today, March 19. The inset graph shows all cases in 2020 and includes China.

New in today’s graph: I removed Australia and Germany, and added Belgium at the request of my Belgian friends. I changed the style of the previously-indistinguishable blue lines. South Korea is the solid light blue line, France is the dashed line, and the United States is the dotted line. Also new today, a graph of deaths due to Coronavirus, with the same countries represented by the same colors and patterns of lines. Depressingly, enough people have died in Italy that we no longer need the inset.

See how on the case graph, the United States is following the same curve as Italy, but three weeks later? And see how the deaths graph follows the same trend as the cases graph?

A lot of people are going to die over the next few weeks. I hope I am wrong.

This is terrifying. Stay safe, everybody.

Here is a link to my Excel template for making that figure, if you would like to play with the data yourself. And please do – I’d love to see what you come up with!

Update tomorrow, and every day until WHO declares the pandemic over.

The play-in games are done, it’s time for March Madness to begin! With Robert Morris, St. Louis, Princeton, and USC advancing, here is the updated bracket and tournament schedule.

Thursday March 19th

Noon: (6) Butler vs. (11) Florida (West regional from Albany, New York)
12:30 PM: (5) LSU vs. (12) Stephen F. Austin (South regional from Tampa, Florida)
1:20 PM: (7) Houston vs. (10) Arkansas (West regional from St. Louis, Missouri)
1:50 PM: (4) Oregon vs. (13) New Mexico State (West regional from Spokane, Washington)
2:30 PM: (6) Texas Tech vs. (11) St. Louis (East, Albany)
3:00 PM: (7) East Tennessee State vs. (10) Wichita State (East, Tampa)
3:50 PM: (2) Michigan State vs. (15) South Alabama (South, St. Louis)
4:20 PM: (1) Gonzaga vs. (16) Princeton (West, Spokane)
6:45 PM: (3) Baylor vs. (14) North Dakota State (West, Albany)
7:00 PM: (4) Villanova vs. (13) Vermont (South, Tampa)
7:15 PM: (2) Creighton vs. (15) Northern Kentucky (Midwest, St. Louis)
7:15 PM: (5) Wisconsin vs. (12) Liberty (West, Spokane)
9:15 PM: (3) West Virginia vs. (14) Toledo (East, Albany)
9:30 PM: (2) Louisville vs. (15) Winthrop (East, Tampa)
9:45 PM: (7) Utah State vs. (10) Notre Dame (South, St. Louis)
9:55 PM: (8) UCLA vs (9) Providence (West, Spokane)

Friday, March 20th

Noon: (3) Florida State vs. (14) Hofstra (Midwest regional from Greensboro, North Carolina)
12:30 PM: (6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Rutgers (South regional from Cleveland, Ohio)
1:20 PM: (1) Duke vs. (16) Portland State (South regional from Omaha, Nebraska)
1:50 PM: (2) San Diego State vs. (15) UC Irvine (West regional from Sacramento, California)
2:30 PM: (4) Maryland vs. (13) Bradley (East, Greensboro)
3:00 PM: (8) Illinois vs. (9) Richmond (East, Cleveland)
3:50 PM: (8) Michigan vs. (9) Auburn (Midwest, Omaha)
4:20 PM: (5) Ohio State vs. (12) Louisiana Tech (Midwest, Sacramento)
6:45 PM: (6) Kentucky vs. (11) Colorado (Midwest, Greensboro)
7:00 PM: (3) BYU vs. (14) Siena (South, Cleveland)
7:15 PM: (8) Marquette vs. (9) Virginia (South, Omaha)
7:15 PM: (7) St. Mary’s of California vs. (10) Penn State (West, Sacramento)
9:15 PM: (5) Seton hall vs. (12) USC (East, Greensboro)
9:30 PM: (1) Dayton vs. (16) Robert Morris (East, Cleveland)
9:45 PM: (1) Kansas vs. (16) Boston University (Midwest, Omaha)
9:55 PM: (4) Arizona vs. (13) Belmont (Midwest, Sacramento)

I’ll update the games as they would have happened on my Twitter feed at @fixthemadness.

Let the fun begin!

Every day, the World Health Organization (WHO) publishes a daily update of the number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide, and the number of deaths.

And starting today, every day I’ll be posting a graph of the data. We’ll be able to see, in real time, as the disease spreads and kills. I won’t try to interpret these graphs right now – I want to learn a little more about how to understand what they mean. I’m presenting them entirely for your information.

Here is the number of cases by country (excluding China), each day for the last month (February 17 – March 17). The inset graph shows all cases in 2020 and includes China.

This is terrifying. Stay safe, everybody.

Here is a link to my Excel template for making that figure, if you would like to play with the data yourself. And please do – I’d love to see what you come up with!

Update tomorrow, and every day until WHO declares the pandemic over.

The best three weeks in sports are gone.

Because of the COVID-19 global pandemic, the entire 2020 NCAA men’s basketball tournament has been cancelled. This is the right decision to slow down the spread of this highly dangerous disease, but college basketball fans will always wonder what might have been. Since we can’t have March Madness in reality, let’s go ahead with it in our imaginations.

I’ll be simulating the entire NCAA tournament using the college basketball game simulator on whatifsports.com. The fun starts tonight at 6:40 PM with the first play-in game, and continues through the championship game on April 6.

Who will pull off this year’s big first-round upset? Who will be the Cinderella team that makes a deep run late into the tournament? And who will win it all?

Here is the schedule – let’s find out!

Tuesday March 17th

6:40 PM: (16) Jackson State vs. (16) Robert Morris (East regional play-in game in Dayton, Ohio)
8:40 PM: (11) Iowa vs. (11) St. Louis (East regional play-in game, Dayton)

Wednesday March 18th

6:40 PM: (16) North Carolina Central vs. (16) Princeton (West regional play-in game, Dayton)
8:40 PM: (12) USC vs. (12) Mississippi State (East regional play-in game, Dayton)

Thursday March 19th

Noon: (6) Butler vs. (11) Florida (West regional from Albany, New York)
12:30 PM: (5) LSU vs. (12) Stephen F. Austin (South regional from Tampa, Florida)
1:20 PM: (7) Houston vs. (10) Arkansas (West regional from St. Louis, Missouri)
1:50 PM: (4) Oregon vs. (13) New Mexico State (West regional from Spokane, Washington)
2:30 PM: (6) Texas Tech vs. (11) Iowa / St. Louis winner (East, Albany)
3:00 PM: (7) East Tennessee State vs. (10) Wichita State (East, Tampa)
3:50 PM: (2) Michigan State vs. (15) South Alabama (South, St. Louis)
4:20 PM: (1) Gonzaga vs. (16) NCCU / Princeton winner (West, Spokane)
6:45 PM: (3) Baylor vs. (14) North Dakota State (West, Albany)
7:00 PM: (4) Villanova vs. (13) Vermont (South, Tampa)
7:15 PM: (2) Creighton vs. (15) Northern Kentucky (Midwest, St. Louis)
7:15 PM: (5) Wisconsin vs. (12) Liberty (West, Spokane)
9:15 PM: (3) West Virginia vs. (14) Toledo (East, Albany)
9:30 PM: (2) Louisville vs. (15) Winthrop (East, Tampa)
9:45 PM: (7) Utah State vs. (10) Notre Dame (South, St. Louis)
9:55 PM: (8) UCLA vs (9) Providence (West, Spokane)

Friday, March 20th

Noon: (3) Florida State vs. (14) Hofstra (Midwest regional from Greensboro, North Carolina)
12:30 PM: (6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Rutgers (South regional from Cleveland, Ohio)
1:20 PM: (1) Duke vs. (16) Portland State (South regional from Omaha, Nebraska)
1:50 PM: (2) San Diego State vs. (15) UC Irvine (West regional from Sacramento, California)
2:30 PM: (4) Maryland vs. (13) Bradley (East, Greensboro)
3:00 PM: (8) Illinois vs. (9) Richmond (East, Cleveland)
3:50 PM: (8) Michigan vs. (9) Auburn (Midwest, Omaha)
4:20 PM: (5) Ohio State vs. (12) Louisiana Tech (Midwest, Sacramento)
6:45 PM: (6) Kentucky vs. (11) Colorado (Midwest, Greensboro)
7:00 PM: (3) BYU vs. (14) Siena (South, Cleveland)
7:15 PM: (8) Marquette vs. (9) Virginia (South, Omaha)
7:15 PM: (7) St. Mary’s of California vs. (10) Penn State (West, Sacramento)
9:15 PM: (5) Seton hall vs. (12) USC / Mississippi State winner (East, Greensboro)
9:30 PM: (1) Dayton vs. (16) Jackson State / Robert Morris winner (East, Cleveland)
9:45 PM: (1) Kansas vs. (16) Boston University (Midwest, Omaha)
9:55 PM: (4) Arizona vs. (13) Belmont (Midwest, Sacramento)

I’ll update the games as they would have happened on my Twitter feed at @fixthemadness. Here’s the bracket to follow along as we go. Let the fun begin!