Graphs day 143, pandemic day 150, day 220 since the first cases were diagnosed.

I can’t believe it’s been CXLIII days and I haven’t made this joke yet, but let’s look at COVID-19 cases in Georgia. And Georgia.

But first, we hit another milestone number today:

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 19,097,149

Total deaths: 714,940

While COVID-19 continues to ravage Georgia, Georgia has mostly escaped the heavy toll of the disease so far. The graph below shows the number of cases reported per day in both places. The main graph is on the regular scale, from zero to 200 new cases diagnosed per day per million people. The smaller inset graph is on the “Qatar scale,” which runs from zero to 700 cases per million people. The label also gives the mortality rate (cumulative deaths per million people) in the region – cumulative because the dead stay dead. The thickness of the lines and the size of the labels depend on the cumulative case fatality rate – the number of people who died divided by the number diagnosed.

Which Georgia is which? You can probably guess.

Want to try these graphs yourself? Go for it!!!

I have updated my template spreadsheet to version 7.2 to include The Georgias, and also a special bonus graph I’ll show tomorrow. If you have questions about how to use it, please ask – leave a comment, messenge me on social media, or send me an email at jordan.raddick@gmail.com.

Another update on the state of the pandemic tomorrow, and every day until the pandemic ends or I do.

Graphs day 141, pandemic day 148, day 218 since the first cases were diagnosed.

I hope you enjoyed Rules for protest, in the style of Dr. Seuss – or at least found it an uncomfortably accurate depiction of current attitudes toward the racial justice protests all over the world.

Two months ago, I made a prediction that Earth would reach seven hundred thousand deaths on August 5, 2020. Here we are, it’s August 5th, and:

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 18,540,119

Total deaths: 700,647

I hate being right.

Beyond this successful prediction, a quick graph to update the high case rates the regions that I first showed on Monday:

New York City, Miami, Houston, Phoenix, Orlando, Hubei, Italy, Brazil

For the areas in the United States, what we’re looking at is metropolitan statistical area (MSAs), which usually consists of several counties around the core city. Wikipedia’s List of metropolitan statistical areas shows which counties are included in which MSAs. The graph is below. The graph is on the “Qatar scale,” which runs from zero to 700 cases per million people. Each region gets a unique color and is labeled close to the line with the same color. The label also gives the mortality rate (cumulative deaths per million people) in the region – cumulative because the dead stay dead. The thickness of the lines and the size of the labels depend on the cumulative case fatality rate – the number of people who died divided by the number diagnosed.

The precipitous drop in cases in Miami looks like good news, and it probably is. But keep in mind that testing centers in Florida were closed for a few days this week because of Hurricane Isaias. Cases had started to drop before that, so I think cases are really dropping – but not dropping as quickly as it appears from this graph.

Want to try these graphs yourself? Go for it!!!

I have updated my template spreadsheet to version 7.1. If you have questions about how to use it, please ask – leave a comment, messenge me on social media, or send me an email at jordan.raddick@gmail.com.

Another update on the state of the pandemic tomorrow, and every day until the pandemic ends or I do.

Regular COVD-19 data update coming tonight, but first…

You must not protest with a knee
You must not protest in D.C.

You must not protest on the street
You must not protest on your feet

You must not protest here or there
You must not protest anywhere!

You must not protest with a march
You must not protest at the Arch

You must not protest on a horse
You must not protest on a course

You must not protest here or there
You must not protest anywhere!

You must not protest in a play
You must not protest in Bombay

You must not protest with a riot
You must not protest if you’re quiet

You must not protest here or there
You must not protest anywhere!

You must not protest, not at all
Yeah, there’s no second line here, I think we’ve gotten to the root of the problem

Graphs day 140, pandemic day 147, day 217 since the first cases were diagnosed. I had to look up how to write 140 in Roman numerals. Worst franchise ever.

Just a quick update of some national- and state-level data while I work on SOMETHING REALLY EXCITING!

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 18,282,208

Total deaths: 693,694

Earth is quickly headed for the new milestone of 700,000 deaths, probably later this week.

Today’s update is for some of the countries and states we have been following where cases continue at high rates. The main graph is on a slightly modified regular scale, running from zero to 250 cases per million people per day. The inset is on the infamous Qatar scale (0-700 cases per million people per day). Each region gets a unique color and is labeled close to the line with the same color. The label also gives the mortality rate (cumulative deaths per million people) in the region – cumulative because the dead stay dead. The thickness of the lines and the size of the labels depend on the cumulative case fatality rate – the number of people who died divided by the number diagnosed.

Florida is definitely doing better. California and Texas are a bit less clear, but hopefully they are moving in the right direction.

Stay tuned for SOMETHING REALLY EXCITING! Probably not tomorrow, but soon.

Want to try these graphs yourself? Go for it!!! I’ve updated my spreadsheet (still version 7) to restore the formulas. The upside is that you can now more easily make changes to make the graphs your own; the downside is that unless you are on a high-end computer, the calculations will be slooooooooooooooooow. To speed up calculations, replace formulas with values once you decide you have the right formulas. If you’re not sure how to do that, just ask – leave a comment, messenge me on social media, or send me an email at jordan.raddick@gmail.com.

Graphs day 139, pandemic day 146, day 216 since the first cases were diagnosed.

Not just an incremental update today, I’ve got a whole new way of looking at the data.

Total cases of COVID-19 diagnosed worldwide: 18,079,126

Total deaths: 689,347

Everything we have seen so far has been at the level of entire countries or entire states (or in one case, the province of Hubei in China). But I also have county-level data for the United States, so we can look in grater detail at areas smaller than state or country. In particular, we can look at some places that have been identified as “hot zones” – areas with particularly high case rates. The regions we’ll look at today are:

New York City, Miami, Houston, Phoenix, Orlando, Hubei, Italy, Brazil

For the areas in the United States, what we’re looking at is metropolitan statistical area (MSAs), which usually consists of several counties around the core city. Wikipedia’s List of metropolitan statistical areas shows which counties are included in which MSAs.

So how does the pattern of cases look in each of these “hot zone” areas?

The graph is below. The graph is on the “Qatar scale,” which runs from zero to 700 cases per million people. Each region gets a unique color and is labeled close to the line with the same color. The label also gives the mortality rate (cumulative deaths per million people) in the region – cumulative because the dead stay dead. The thickness of the lines and the size of the labels depend on the cumulative case fatality rate – the number of people who died divided by the number diagnosed.

Two observations:

• The worst case rates have been in Miami, but the worst death rates have been in New York City
• For all the early news coverage of China, Italy, and Brazil, the areas that have been hardest hit so far are all in the United States. Key word: so far.

Want to try these graphs yourself? Go for it!!! I’ve updated my spreadsheet (still version 7) to restore the formulas. The upside is that you can now more easily make changes to make the graphs your own; the downside is that unless you are on a high-end computer, the calculations will be slooooooooooooooooow. To speed up calculations, replace formulas with values once you decide you have the right formulas. If you’re not sure how to do that, just ask – leave a comment, messenge me on social media, or send me an email at jordan.raddick@gmail.com.

Another update on the state of the pandemic tomorrow, and every day until the pandemic ends or I do. And more of the regular Monday-Wednesday-Friday posts, which are way more interesting anyway.